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Independent basketball projections and scouting notes. Outputs are directional, not calibrated betting advice.
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WNBA · Model Tracking

Model Results

A public scorecard for tracked model edges. The automated tracker snapshots sportsbook markets, records qualifying prop/spread/total edges, promotes a capped betting card, settles picks from ESPN final boxscores, and reports one-unit ROI.

Settled0
Record0-0-0
Units0.00
ROI—
Card8
Open52

Betting Card

Capped card: max 8 picks, max 2 per game, max 1 game market per game, max 1 prop per player. Unders are withheld until under-specific validation is added.
PickGameProjLineEdgeEdge %Price
ATL spread -1.52026-05-13-atl-dal-15.1-1.513.60—-115
ReadATL spread -1.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects -15.1, line is -1.5, edge of +13.6

The model is not nibbling here. It makes the game -15.1 on the margin, which creates 13.6 points of spread room at -115.

  • This is a team level number, so it is cleaner than a single player rotation read.
  • The sanity cap still applies because giant spread gaps can hide stale injury or lineup information.
Risk: the largest spread edges are also where bad market inputs show up first.Verdict: playable only after confirming the market line and active rosters.Confidence: 3 units (Standard Play)
Jovana Nogic 3PM over 1.52026-05-13-min-phx4.001.52.50167%-175
ReadJovana Nogic 3PM over 1.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 4.0, line is 1.5, edge of +2.5

This is a shot volume bet. The model gets Jovana Nogic to 4.00 made threes against MIN, clearing 1.5 by 2.50.

  • 24.0 projected minutes in a 40-minute game, starter role, 2 starts in 2 2026 games, 27 minutes last game.
  • Market: over 1.5 at -175 on draftkings.
  • MIN leans friendly enough from three, with a +0.38 z three zone make profile.
  • Model source tag: 2026_only.
Risk: baseline is thin; only 2 game sample; three point props carry normal make or miss variance; price is already taxing the edge.Verdict: playable as a made threes over if the minute read survives pregame news.Confidence: 2 units (Lean)
OVER 168.52026-05-13-min-phx174.5168.56.00—-105
ReadOVER 168.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 174.5, line is 168.5, edge of +6.0

The total projection lands at 174.5, giving the over 6.0 points of cushion.

  • Totals aggregate both rotations, pace, and shot profile. That makes them less fragile than a single prop.
  • Late scratches still matter because early season team totals are sensitive to one high usage player.
Risk: early season pace and efficiency priors are still moving.Verdict: playable if the closing total has not already eaten the edge.Confidence: 3 units (Standard Play)
Jordin Canada 3PM over 0.52026-05-13-atl-dal1.160.50.66132%-185
ReadJordin Canada 3PM over 0.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 1.2, line is 0.5, edge of +0.7

This is a shot volume bet. The model gets Jordin Canada to 1.16 made threes against DAL, clearing 0.5 by 0.66.

  • 26.0 projected minutes in a 40-minute game, starter role, 2 starts in 2 2026 games, 27 minutes last game.
  • Market: over 0.5 at -185 on betonlineag.
  • DAL is showing a real three point leak: the three zone make profile averages +1.19 z.
  • Model source tag: blended.
Risk: only 2 game sample; three point props carry normal make or miss variance; price is already taxing the edge.Verdict: playable as a made threes over if the minute read survives pregame news.Confidence: 2 units (Lean)
Marina Mabrey REB over 4.52026-05-13-sea-tor7.34.52.8062%100
ReadMarina Mabrey REB over 4.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 7.3, line is 4.5, edge of +2.8

This is a role bet in a league where minutes and smaller rotations matter. The projection sits at 7.3 rebounds, 2.80 above a 4.5 line.

  • 31.4 projected minutes in a 40-minute game, starter role, 1 starts in 1 2026 games, 30 minutes last game.
  • Market: over 4.5 at +100 on draftkings.
  • Rebound props are minute and role bets first; the edge is meaningful only if the rotation read holds.
  • Model source tag: blended.
Risk: only 1 game sample.Verdict: playable as a rebounds over if the minute read survives pregame news.Confidence: 3 units (Standard Play)
Flau'jae Johnson 3PM over 1.52026-05-13-sea-tor2.031.50.5335%-102
ReadFlau'jae Johnson 3PM over 1.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 2.0, line is 1.5, edge of +0.5

This is a shot volume bet. The model gets Flau'jae Johnson to 2.03 made threes against TOR, clearing 1.5 by 0.53.

  • 28.6 projected minutes in a 40-minute game, starter role, 2 starts in 2 2026 games, 30 minutes last game.
  • Market: over 1.5 at -102 on fanduel.
  • The three point matchup is close to neutral at +0.00 z, which keeps the bet tied to minutes and attempts.
  • Model source tag: 2026_only.
Risk: baseline is thin; only 2 game sample; three point props carry normal make or miss variance.Verdict: playable as a made threes over if the minute read survives pregame news.Confidence: 1 unit (Sprinkle)
GS spread -5.52026-05-14-chi-gs18.1-5.512.60—-105
ReadGS spread -5.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 18.1, line is -5.5, edge of +12.6

The model is not nibbling here. It makes the game 18.1 on the margin, which creates 12.6 points of spread room at -105.

  • This is a team level number, so it is cleaner than a single player rotation read.
  • The sanity cap still applies because giant spread gaps can hide stale injury or lineup information.
Risk: the largest spread edges are also where bad market inputs show up first.Verdict: playable only after confirming the market line and active rosters.Confidence: 3 units (Standard Play)
OVER 183.52026-05-14-ind-la191.5183.58.00—-110
ReadOVER 183.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 191.5, line is 183.5, edge of +8.0

The total projection lands at 191.5, giving the over 8.0 points of cushion.

  • Totals aggregate both rotations, pace, and shot profile. That makes them less fragile than a single prop.
  • Late scratches still matter because early season team totals are sensitive to one high usage player.
Risk: early season pace and efficiency priors are still moving.Verdict: playable if the closing total has not already eaten the edge.Confidence: 3 units (Standard Play)

Open Edges

Currently awaiting final boxscores.
PickGameProjLineEdgeEdge %Price
UNDER 166.52026-05-13-sea-tor141.9166.524.60—-115
ReadUNDER 166.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 141.9, line is 166.5, edge of +24.6

The total projection lands at 141.9, giving the under 24.6 points of cushion.

  • Totals aggregate both rotations, pace, and shot profile. That makes them less fragile than a single prop.
  • Late scratches still matter because early season team totals are sensitive to one high usage player.
Risk: early season pace and efficiency priors are still moving.Verdict: playable if the closing total has not already eaten the edge.Confidence: 3 units (Standard Play)
SEA spread 3.52026-05-13-sea-tor-16.73.520.20—-115
ReadSEA spread 3.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects -16.7, line is 3.5, edge of +20.2

The model is not nibbling here. It makes the game -16.7 on the margin, which creates 20.2 points of spread room at -115.

  • This is a team level number, so it is cleaner than a single player rotation read.
  • The sanity cap still applies because giant spread gaps can hide stale injury or lineup information.
Risk: the largest spread edges are also where bad market inputs show up first.Verdict: playable only after confirming the market line and active rosters.Confidence: 3 units (Standard Play)
UNDER 174.52026-05-13-ny-por155.4174.519.10—-115
ReadUNDER 174.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 155.4, line is 174.5, edge of +19.1

The total projection lands at 155.4, giving the under 19.1 points of cushion.

  • Totals aggregate both rotations, pace, and shot profile. That makes them less fragile than a single prop.
  • Late scratches still matter because early season team totals are sensitive to one high usage player.
Risk: early season pace and efficiency priors are still moving.Verdict: playable if the closing total has not already eaten the edge.Confidence: 3 units (Standard Play)
Jovana Nogic PTS over 11.52026-05-13-min-phx17.511.56.0052%-108
ReadJovana Nogic PTS over 11.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 17.5, line is 11.5, edge of +6.0

The points case is usage plus matchup math. Jovana Nogic projects at 17.5 points against MIN, which leaves 6.00 points of room over 11.5.

  • 24.0 projected minutes in a 40-minute game, starter role, 2 starts in 2 2026 games, 27 minutes last game.
  • Market: over 11.5 at -108 on fanduel.
  • Model source tag: 2026_only.
Risk: baseline is thin; only 2 game sample.Verdict: playable as a points over if the minute read survives pregame news.Confidence: 3 units (Standard Play)
Bridget Carleton PTS under 12.52026-05-13-ny-por7.412.55.1041%-115
ReadBridget Carleton PTS under 12.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 7.4, line is 12.5, edge of +5.1

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Carla Leite PTS under 15.52026-05-13-ny-por10.915.54.6030%-125
ReadCarla Leite PTS under 15.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 10.9, line is 15.5, edge of +4.6

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Alanna Smith PTS under 9.52026-05-13-atl-dal4.99.54.6048%-120
ReadAlanna Smith PTS under 9.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 4.9, line is 9.5, edge of +4.6

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Natasha Howard PTS under 13.52026-05-13-min-phx9.413.54.1030%-143
ReadNatasha Howard PTS under 13.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 9.4, line is 13.5, edge of +4.1

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Kahleah Copper PTS under 18.52026-05-13-min-phx14.718.53.8021%-110
ReadKahleah Copper PTS under 18.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 14.7, line is 18.5, edge of +3.8

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Allisha Gray PTS over 17.52026-05-13-atl-dal21.017.53.5020%-125
ReadAllisha Gray PTS over 17.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 21.0, line is 17.5, edge of +3.5

The points case is usage plus matchup math. Allisha Gray projects at 21.0 points against DAL, which leaves 3.50 points of room over 17.5.

  • 31.9 projected minutes in a 40-minute game, starter role, 2 starts in 2 2026 games, 33 minutes last game.
  • Market: over 17.5 at -125 on draftkings.
  • The scoring map has a path: free throws are live against DAL at +1.93 z; above the break threes are loose at +1.23 z.
  • Model source tag: blended.
Risk: only 2 game sample.Verdict: playable as a points over if the minute read survives pregame news.Confidence: 3 units (Standard Play)
Jessica Shepard REB under 9.52026-05-13-atl-dal6.09.53.5037%-130
ReadJessica Shepard REB under 9.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 6.0, line is 9.5, edge of +3.5

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Olivia Miles PTS over 13.52026-05-13-min-phx17.013.53.5026%-135
ReadOlivia Miles PTS over 13.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 17.0, line is 13.5, edge of +3.5

The points case is usage plus matchup math. Olivia Miles projects at 17.0 points against PHX, which leaves 3.50 points of room over 13.5.

  • 30.9 projected minutes in a 40-minute game, starter role, 2 starts in 2 2026 games, 34 minutes last game.
  • Market: over 13.5 at -135 on draftkings.
  • Model source tag: 2026_only.
Risk: baseline is thin; only 2 game sample.Verdict: playable as a points over if the minute read survives pregame news.Confidence: 3 units (Standard Play)
Marine Johannes PTS under 15.52026-05-13-ny-por12.215.53.3021%-110
ReadMarine Johannes PTS under 15.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 12.2, line is 15.5, edge of +3.3

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Kahleah Copper REB under 3.52026-05-13-min-phx0.53.53.0086%-167
ReadKahleah Copper REB under 3.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 0.5, line is 3.5, edge of +3.0

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Luisa Geiselsoder PTS under 10.52026-05-13-ny-por7.510.53.0029%-120
ReadLuisa Geiselsoder PTS under 10.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 7.5, line is 10.5, edge of +3.0

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Natasha Mack PTS over 7.52026-05-13-min-phx10.57.53.0040%-118
ReadNatasha Mack PTS over 7.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 10.5, line is 7.5, edge of +3.0

The points case is usage plus matchup math. Natasha Mack projects at 10.5 points against MIN, which leaves 3.00 points of room over 7.5.

  • 27.0 projected minutes in a 40-minute game, starter role, 2 starts in 2 2026 games, 29 minutes last game.
  • Market: over 7.5 at -118 on betonlineag.
  • Model source tag: 2026_only.
Risk: baseline is thin; only 2 game sample.Verdict: playable as a points over if the minute read survives pregame news.Confidence: 3 units (Standard Play)
Jordin Canada PTS over 9.52026-05-13-atl-dal12.29.52.7028%-122
ReadJordin Canada PTS over 9.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 12.2, line is 9.5, edge of +2.7

The points case is usage plus matchup math. Jordin Canada projects at 12.2 points against DAL, which leaves 2.70 points of room over 9.5.

  • 26.0 projected minutes in a 40-minute game, starter role, 2 starts in 2 2026 games, 27 minutes last game.
  • Market: over 9.5 at -122 on fanduel.
  • The scoring map has a path: free throws are live against DAL at +1.93 z; above the break threes are loose at +1.23 z.
  • Model source tag: blended.
Risk: only 2 game sample.Verdict: playable as a points over if the minute read survives pregame news.Confidence: 3 units (Standard Play)
Jonquel Jones REB under 9.52026-05-13-ny-por6.89.52.7028%-118
ReadJonquel Jones REB under 9.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 6.8, line is 9.5, edge of +2.7

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Emily Engstler PTS under 6.52026-05-13-ny-por4.06.52.5038%-123
ReadEmily Engstler PTS under 6.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 4.0, line is 6.5, edge of +2.5

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Bridget Carleton REB under 3.52026-05-13-ny-por1.03.52.5071%118
ReadBridget Carleton REB under 3.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 1.0, line is 3.5, edge of +2.5

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Olivia Miles AST under 7.52026-05-13-min-phx5.07.52.5033%-154
ReadOlivia Miles AST under 7.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 5.0, line is 7.5, edge of +2.5

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Olivia Miles 3PM under 1.52026-05-13-min-phx0.501.51.0067%-175
ReadOlivia Miles 3PM under 1.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 0.5, line is 1.5, edge of +1.0

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Rhyne Howard 3PM over 2.52026-05-13-atl-dal3.452.50.9538%-149
ReadRhyne Howard 3PM over 2.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 3.5, line is 2.5, edge of +0.9

This is a shot volume bet. The model gets Rhyne Howard to 3.45 made threes against DAL, clearing 2.5 by 0.95.

  • 33.0 projected minutes in a 40-minute game, starter role, 2 starts in 2 2026 games, 38 minutes last game.
  • Market: over 2.5 at -149 on betonlineag.
  • DAL is showing a real three point leak: the three zone make profile averages +1.19 z.
  • Model source tag: blended.
Risk: only 2 game sample; three point props carry normal make or miss variance.Verdict: playable as a made threes over if the minute read survives pregame news.Confidence: 2 units (Lean)
Breanna Stewart 3PM under 1.52026-05-13-ny-por0.591.50.9161%-186
ReadBreanna Stewart 3PM under 1.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 0.6, line is 1.5, edge of +0.9

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Allisha Gray 3PM over 1.52026-05-13-atl-dal2.401.50.9060%-172
ReadAllisha Gray 3PM over 1.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 2.4, line is 1.5, edge of +0.9

This is a shot volume bet. The model gets Allisha Gray to 2.40 made threes against DAL, clearing 1.5 by 0.90.

  • 31.9 projected minutes in a 40-minute game, starter role, 2 starts in 2 2026 games, 33 minutes last game.
  • Market: over 1.5 at -172 on betonlineag.
  • DAL is showing a real three point leak: the three zone make profile averages +1.19 z.
  • Model source tag: blended.
Risk: only 2 game sample; three point props carry normal make or miss variance.Verdict: playable as a made threes over if the minute read survives pregame news.Confidence: 2 units (Lean)
Marina Mabrey 3PM under 2.52026-05-13-sea-tor1.602.50.9036%-168
ReadMarina Mabrey 3PM under 2.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 1.6, line is 2.5, edge of +0.9

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Paige Bueckers 3PM under 1.52026-05-13-atl-dal0.751.50.7550%-196
ReadPaige Bueckers 3PM under 1.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 0.8, line is 1.5, edge of +0.8

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Courtney Williams 3PM under 1.52026-05-13-min-phx0.961.50.5436%-166
ReadCourtney Williams 3PM under 1.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 1.0, line is 1.5, edge of +0.5

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Kelsey Mitchell PTS under 20.52026-05-14-ind-la11.820.58.7042%-120
ReadKelsey Mitchell PTS under 20.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 11.8, line is 20.5, edge of +8.7

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Caitlin Clark PTS under 19.52026-05-14-ind-la12.019.57.5038%-106
ReadCaitlin Clark PTS under 19.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 12.0, line is 19.5, edge of +7.5

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Aliyah Boston PTS under 16.52026-05-14-ind-la10.416.56.1037%-120
ReadAliyah Boston PTS under 16.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 10.4, line is 16.5, edge of +6.1

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Aliyah Boston REB under 8.52026-05-14-ind-la2.68.55.9069%-130
ReadAliyah Boston REB under 8.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 2.6, line is 8.5, edge of +5.9

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Kamilla Cardoso PTS under 15.52026-05-14-chi-gs9.815.55.7037%-118
ReadKamilla Cardoso PTS under 15.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 9.8, line is 15.5, edge of +5.7

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
A'ja Wilson REB under 10.52026-05-14-lv-con5.010.55.5052%-114
ReadA'ja Wilson REB under 10.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 5.0, line is 10.5, edge of +5.5

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
UNDER 166.52026-05-14-chi-gs161.3166.55.20—-110
ReadUNDER 166.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 161.3, line is 166.5, edge of +5.2

The total projection lands at 161.3, giving the under 5.2 points of cushion.

  • Totals aggregate both rotations, pace, and shot profile. That makes them less fragile than a single prop.
  • Late scratches still matter because early season team totals are sensitive to one high usage player.
Risk: early season pace and efficiency priors are still moving.Verdict: playable if the closing total has not already eaten the edge.Confidence: 3 units (Standard Play)
Caitlin Clark AST under 9.52026-05-14-ind-la4.69.54.9052%-152
ReadCaitlin Clark AST under 9.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 4.6, line is 9.5, edge of +4.9

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Kamilla Cardoso REB over 10.52026-05-14-chi-gs15.310.54.8046%-103
ReadKamilla Cardoso REB over 10.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 15.3, line is 10.5, edge of +4.8

This is a role bet in a league where minutes and smaller rotations matter. The projection sits at 15.3 rebounds, 4.80 above a 10.5 line.

  • 27.3 projected minutes in a 40-minute game, starter role, 1 starts in 1 2026 games, 25 minutes last game.
  • Market: over 10.5 at -103 on betonlineag.
  • Rebound props are minute and role bets first; the edge is meaningful only if the rotation read holds.
  • Model source tag: blended.
Risk: only 1 game sample.Verdict: playable as a rebounds over if the minute read survives pregame news.Confidence: 4 units (Strong Play)
Dearica Hamby PTS over 15.52026-05-14-ind-la19.215.53.7024%100
ReadDearica Hamby PTS over 15.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 19.2, line is 15.5, edge of +3.7

The points case is usage plus matchup math. Dearica Hamby projects at 19.2 points against IND, which leaves 3.70 points of room over 15.5.

  • 29.6 projected minutes in a 40-minute game, starter role, 2 starts in 2 2026 games, 27 minutes last game.
  • Market: over 15.5 at +100 on draftkings.
  • The scoring map has a path: rim makes are elevated at +0.73 z.
  • Model source tag: blended.
Risk: only 2 game sample.Verdict: playable as a points over if the minute read survives pregame news.Confidence: 3 units (Standard Play)
Aneesah Morrow PTS under 13.52026-05-14-lv-con10.713.52.8021%-105
ReadAneesah Morrow PTS under 13.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 10.7, line is 13.5, edge of +2.8

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Kelsey Plum AST under 6.52026-05-14-ind-la3.86.52.7042%-152
ReadKelsey Plum AST under 6.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 3.8, line is 6.5, edge of +2.7

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Caitlin Clark REB under 5.52026-05-14-ind-la3.05.52.5045%-106
ReadCaitlin Clark REB under 5.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 3.0, line is 5.5, edge of +2.5

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Kayla Thornton 3PM over 1.52026-05-14-chi-gs2.411.50.9161%-169
ReadKayla Thornton 3PM over 1.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 2.4, line is 1.5, edge of +0.9

This is a shot volume bet. The model gets Kayla Thornton to 2.41 made threes against CHI, clearing 1.5 by 0.91.

  • 30.2 projected minutes in a 40-minute game, starter role, 2 starts in 2 2026 games, 31 minutes last game.
  • Market: over 1.5 at -169 on betonlineag.
  • CHI is showing a real three point leak: the three zone make profile averages +1.26 z.
  • Model source tag: blended.
Risk: only 2 game sample; three point props carry normal make or miss variance.Verdict: playable as a made threes over if the minute read survives pregame news.Confidence: 2 units (Lean)
Kelsey Mitchell 3PM under 2.52026-05-14-ind-la1.702.50.8032%-115
ReadKelsey Mitchell 3PM under 2.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 1.7, line is 2.5, edge of +0.8

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Ariel Atkins 3PM under 1.52026-05-14-ind-la0.871.50.6342%-130
ReadAriel Atkins 3PM under 1.5

Model: NBB_WNBA_Props_Model projects 0.9, line is 1.5, edge of +0.6

Pass. Under edge withheld until the under side has separate validation.

Pass: research only.Confidence: Pass
Tracking rule: strong prop edges require both raw edge and percent edge: 2.5 plus 20% of line for points/rebounds/assists, or 0.50 plus 30% of line for made threes. Spreads and totals require 5.0 points of edge, and all tracked prices must be -200 or better. The betting card further caps exposure per game/player and game market. Unders are tracked for research but excluded from the public card until the under side has its own validation. Open picks are not included in ROI until settled.