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Independent basketball projections and scouting notes. Outputs are directional, not calibrated betting advice.
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June 13, 2026

Indiana Fever @ Connecticut Sun

Proj total 184.6Spread IND -15.0

Indiana Fever (IND)

Caitlin Clark34.223.95.29.03.156.2Blended · 12 gamesPTS O 19.5
Kelsey Mitchell33.523.51.62.72.306.8Blended · 13 gamesPTS O 18.5
Aliyah Boston28.719.08.93.21.184.7Blended · 12 gamesPTS O 15.5
Lexie Hull27.27.95.21.01.441.2Blended · 12 games—
Monique Billings24.07.55.81.20.463.9Blended · 12 games—
Sophie Cunningham12.75.11.41.10.721.2Blended · 12 games—
Myisha Hines-Allen12.73.72.71.50.091.7Blended · 13 games—
Raven Johnson6.62.21.10.60.250.6Blended · 13 games—
Tyasha Harris6.11.30.50.90.110.4Blended · 10 games—
Makayla Timpson5.11.51.30.20.000.5Blended · 13 games—
Grace VanSlooten4.72.00.50.30.231.1Blended · 6 games—
Damiris Dantas4.52.20.60.20.520.2Blended · 7 games—
Bree Hall——————no_baseline—
Justine Pissott——————no_baseline—

Connecticut Sun (CON)

Saniya Rivers29.78.72.84.40.411.9Blended · 15 games—
Leila Lacan29.212.31.25.01.102.2Blended · 5 games—
Aneesah Morrow28.815.012.31.51.184.3Blended · 13 games—
Aaliyah Edwards25.514.84.80.80.125.0Blended · 8 gamesPTS O 10.5
Diamond Miller25.510.52.91.30.915.1Blended · 15 games—
Brittney Griner11.46.72.31.00.101.4Blended · 7 games—
Olivia Nelson-Ododa11.44.72.81.20.001.9Blended · 11 games—
Kennedy Burke11.43.31.81.00.371.0Blended · 14 games—
Charlisse Leger-Walker6.92.10.50.80.190.6Blended · 15 games—
Nell Angloma6.32.50.80.20.051.3Blended · 11 games—
Ashlon Jackson5.31.10.60.50.190.3Blended · 5 games—
Raegan Beers4.91.81.40.40.060.6Blended · 13 games—
Gianna Kneepkens3.71.30.50.30.100.2Blended · 15 games—
Game writeup

IND by 15.0 in a 184.6 total

Caitlin Clark is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Matchup levers

  • IND gives up rim makes + free-throw volume. Indiana Fever shows positive make z-scores in rim makes (+1.13), free-throw volume (+0.69). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • IND suppresses above-break 3s. Indiana Fever is a negative matchup for above-break 3s (-1.04). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.
  • CON gives up free-throw volume + above-break 3s. Connecticut Sun shows positive make z-scores in free-throw volume (+1.56), above-break 3s (+0.86). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • CON suppresses pick-and-roll makes. Connecticut Sun is a negative matchup for pick-and-roll makes (-0.87). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

Game script

  • Total posture. The projection lands at 184.6, a pace/efficiency setup that starts as an over-screen before prices are considered.
  • Side posture. IND grades as the model side by 15.0. Team totals: IND 99.8 and CON 84.8.

Watch list

  • Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
  • Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
  • Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

  • Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
  • Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
  • These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.
Inactives (1)

IND

None reported.

CON

  • Hailey Van Lith
Methodology / caveats

Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.