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Independent basketball projections and scouting notes. Outputs are directional, not calibrated betting advice.
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May 31, 2026

Las Vegas Aces @ Golden State Valkyries

Proj total 163.5Spread LV -10.7

Las Vegas Aces (LV)

Chelsea Gray30.211.43.96.71.872.2Blended · 7 games—
A'ja Wilson30.022.87.32.60.916.8Blended · 7 games—
Jackie Young29.313.74.35.51.523.0Blended · 7 games—
Jewell Loyd28.09.93.21.52.051.5Blended · 7 games—
NaLyssa Smith24.19.46.61.20.212.6Blended · 7 games—
Chennedy Carter14.111.81.61.40.662.62026-only—
Stephanie Talbot14.12.91.91.00.110.62026-only—
Kierstan Bell11.41.01.50.70.210.02026-only—
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus9.53.42.40.60.001.32026-only—
Brianna Turner9.30.82.00.30.000.32026-only—
Janiah Barker——————no_baseline—

Golden State Valkyries (GS)

Veronica Burton30.913.23.06.31.503.4Blended · 5 games—
Kayla Thornton29.912.64.90.41.452.8Blended · 5 games—
Gabby Williams29.612.34.02.91.591.2Blended · 5 games—
Kiah Stokes24.84.76.01.90.430.92026-only—
Kaila Charles24.28.06.31.30.781.4Blended · 5 games—
Janelle Salaun14.26.41.70.51.020.7Blended · 5 games—
Kaitlyn Chen14.17.32.00.90.731.32026-only—
Tiffany Hayes14.16.80.91.60.751.3Blended · 3 games—
Laeticia Amihere14.15.14.31.50.051.7Blended · 5 games—
Miela Sowah3.10.00.00.00.000.02026-only—
Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda1.00.00.00.00.000.02026-only—
Ashten Prechtel——————no_baseline—
Game writeup

LV by 10.7 in a 163.5 total

A'ja Wilson is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Matchup levers

  • LV gives up pick-and-roll makes + mid-range makes. Las Vegas Aces shows positive make z-scores in pick-and-roll makes (+2.69), mid-range makes (+1.07). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • LV suppresses left-corner 3s. Las Vegas Aces is a negative matchup for left-corner 3s (-1.35). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.
  • GS gives up pick-and-roll makes + above-break 3s. Golden State Valkyries shows positive make z-scores in pick-and-roll makes (+0.88), above-break 3s (+0.68). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • GS suppresses rim makes. Golden State Valkyries is a negative matchup for rim makes (-2.72). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

Game script

  • Total posture. The projection lands at 163.5, so this is more about player-specific funnels than a blind game-total over.
  • Side posture. LV grades as the model side by 10.7. Team totals: LV 87.1 and GS 76.4.

Watch list

  • Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
  • Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
  • Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

  • Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
  • Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
  • These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.
Inactives (4)

LV

  • Dana Evans

GS

  • Cecilia Zandalasini
  • Iliana Rupert
  • Juste Jocyte
Methodology / caveats

Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.