Skip to content
NBBNothing But BetWNBA projections
WNBAWNBAPropsPROPResultsRESMLBMLBMACMAC
WNBAPropsResultsMLBMAC
NOTHING BUT BET
WNBA model/Betting card/MLB props/MAC archive
Independent basketball projections and scouting notes. Outputs are directional, not calibrated betting advice.
© 2026 Nothing But Bet
← All matchups
May 22, 2026

Golden State Valkyries @ Indiana Fever

Proj total 157.1Spread IND -15.5

Golden State Valkyries (GS)

Gabby Williams30.912.65.62.81.452.0blended · 3G—
Veronica Burton30.613.02.56.81.245.4blended · 3G—
Kayla Thornton30.212.95.60.31.584.5blended · 3G—
Kiah Stokes24.65.26.71.90.001.52026_only—
Kaila Charles24.07.85.81.50.802.3blended · 3G—
Janelle Salaun14.06.61.20.61.091.1blended · 3G—
Kaitlyn Chen14.06.63.21.30.660.72026_only—
Laeticia Amihere14.06.13.01.90.062.7blended · 3G—
Miela Sowah13.30.00.00.00.000.02026_only—
Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda4.40.00.00.00.000.02026_only—

Indiana Fever (IND)

Kelsey Mitchell30.119.61.11.72.794.0blended · 5G—
Caitlin Clark29.518.44.88.72.703.6blended · 5G—
Aliyah Boston26.110.85.23.90.342.8blended · 4G—
Sophie Cunningham24.08.73.52.01.651.5blended · 5G—
Monique Billings24.07.86.51.60.662.6blended · 4G—
Myisha Hines-Allen12.53.52.82.00.151.1blended · 5G—
Lexie Hull12.53.21.70.50.530.3blended · 4G—
Makayla Timpson10.34.32.10.40.000.72026_only—
Damiris Dantas8.34.41.20.61.110.32026_only—
Tyasha Harris7.62.10.70.80.140.62026_only—
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough7.61.71.40.00.350.02026_only—
Raven Johnson7.51.82.10.80.140.62026_only—
Bree Hall——————no_baseline—
Justine Pissott——————no_baseline—
Game writeup

IND by 15.5 in a 157.1 total

Kelsey Mitchell is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Matchup levers

  • GS gives up pick-and-roll makes + above-break 3s. Golden State Valkyries shows positive make z-scores in pick-and-roll makes (+0.88), above-break 3s (+0.68). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • GS suppresses rim makes. Golden State Valkyries is a negative matchup for rim makes (-2.72). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.
  • IND gives up rim makes + free-throw volume. Indiana Fever shows positive make z-scores in rim makes (+0.73), free-throw volume (+0.69). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • IND suppresses right-corner 3s. Indiana Fever is a negative matchup for right-corner 3s (-0.95). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

Game script

  • Total posture. The projection lands at 157.1, so this is more about player-specific funnels than a blind game-total over.
  • Side posture. IND grades as the model side by 15.5. Team totals: GS 70.8 and IND 86.3.

Watch list

  • Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
  • Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
  • Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

  • Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
  • Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
  • These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.
Inactives (4)

GS

  • Tiffany Hayes
  • Cecilia Zandalasini
  • Iliana Rupert
  • Juste Jocyte

IND

None reported.

Methodology / caveats

Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.