Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 10
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Toledo home
- Glass Bowl
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 7 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Buffalo visits Toledo in Week 6.
Buffalo travels to Toledo at Glass Bowl. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 7 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Jasaiah Gathings (BUF), Terrance Shelton Jr. (BUF), and Chance Morrow (BUF).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
7 player distributions are available, led by Jasaiah Gathings (BUF).
Venue context
Toledo is the designated home team at Glass Bowl.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:05+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:05+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Buffalo pass protection vs Toledo pass rush
Buffalo's pass protection graded 69.9 in 2025 (38th of 136); Toledo's pass rush graded 74.9 (4th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Toledo's pass rush. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Toledo pass protection vs Buffalo pass rush
Toledo's pass protection graded 58.9 in 2025 (111th of 136); Buffalo's pass rush graded 69.7 (20th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Buffalo's pass rush. Buffalo's pass rush returns only 14.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Buffalo receiving corps vs Toledo coverage
Buffalo's receiving corps graded 64.8 in 2025 (64th of 136); Toledo's coverage graded 70.0 (19th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Toledo's coverage. Toledo's coverage returns only 10.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Toledo receiving corps vs Buffalo coverage
Toledo's receiving corps graded 65.0 in 2025 (60th of 136); Buffalo's coverage graded 65.8 (49th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Buffalo rush offense vs Toledo run defense
Buffalo's rush offense graded 69.3 in 2025 (126th of 136); Toledo's run defense graded 74.8 (6th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Toledo's run defense. Toledo's run defense returns only 10.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Toledo rush offense vs Buffalo run defense
Toledo's rush offense graded 75.3 in 2025 (69th of 136); Buffalo's run defense graded 69.8 (38th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Buffalo's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Buffalo
4 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasaiah GathingsHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 10.63.8–15.9 | — | — | 3.51.0–5.4 | 4312–62 |
| Terrance Shelton Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | RB | 9.12.7–14.0 | — | 3812–64 | — | — |
| Chance MorrowELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.12.4–13.4 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.1 | 3010–48 |
| Patrick Clacks IIIVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.82.1–10.6 | — | — | — | — |
Toledo
3 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Crosby Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.92.1–10.9 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.1 | 308–43 |
| Cooper RuskHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 5.91.5–10.1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sam Leebalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 5.71.7–9.4 | — | — | — | 256–29 |
Buffalo
- Receptions
- 3.5
- Rec yds
- 43
- Rush yds
- 38
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 30
Toledo
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 30
- Rec yds
- 25
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasaiah GathingsWR · BUF | Receiving yards | 43.3 | 32.1 | 12.1–61.6 | Shop the line |
| Terrance Shelton Jr.RB · BUF | Rushing yards | 38.0 | 31.8 | 11.8–63.7 | Shop the line |
| Chance MorrowWR · BUF | Receiving yards | 30.4 | 27.0 | 10.0–48.3 | Shop the line |
| Terrell Crosby Jr.WR · TOL | Receiving yards | 29.6 | 21.8 | 8.2–43.4 | Shop the line |
| Sam LeeTE · TOL | Receiving yards | 24.7 | 16.1 | 6.0–29.1 | Shop the line |
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 43.3
- Median
- 32.1
- 20th–80th
- 12.1–61.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 38.0
- Median
- 31.8
- 20th–80th
- 11.8–63.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 30.4
- Median
- 27.0
- 20th–80th
- 10.0–48.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 29.6
- Median
- 21.8
- 20th–80th
- 8.2–43.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 24.7
- Median
- 16.1
- 20th–80th
- 6.0–29.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated