Nevada Wolf Pack at UNLV Rebels college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 28
- 9:00 PM EST
- Venue
- UNLV home
- Allegiant Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 13 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Nevada visits UNLV in Week 13.
Nevada travels to UNLV at Allegiant Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 13 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Jai'Den Thomas (UNLV), Carter Jones (NEV), and Luke Duncan (NEV).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
13 player distributions are available, led by Jai'Den Thomas (UNLV).
Venue context
UNLV is the designated home team at Allegiant Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:31+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:31+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Nevada pass protection vs UNLV pass rush
Nevada's pass protection graded 63.7 in 2025 (87th of 136); UNLV's pass rush graded 68.1 (38th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UNLV's pass rush.
UNLV pass protection vs Nevada pass rush
UNLV's pass protection graded 68.4 in 2025 (49th of 136); Nevada's pass rush graded 70.3 (13th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Nevada's pass rush.
Nevada receiving corps vs UNLV coverage
Nevada's receiving corps graded 60.3 in 2025 (121st of 136); UNLV's coverage graded 62.8 (83rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for UNLV's coverage.
UNLV receiving corps vs Nevada coverage
UNLV's receiving corps graded 66.9 in 2025 (32nd of 136); Nevada's coverage graded 66.0 (46th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Nevada rush offense vs UNLV run defense
Nevada's rush offense graded 69.5 in 2025 (122nd of 136); UNLV's run defense graded 64.7 (103rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for UNLV's run defense.
UNLV rush offense vs Nevada run defense
UNLV's rush offense graded 82.8 in 2025 (10th of 136); Nevada's run defense graded 68.6 (46th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for UNLV's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Nevada
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter JonesVOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 9.91.9–18.8 | 14431–232 | — | — | — |
| Luke Duncanbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 9.82.1–16.6 | 14934–235 | — | — | — |
| Gary Givens IIIbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 7.22.0–10.8 | — | — | — | 3410–48 |
| Herschel TurnerELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.51.5–10.9 | — | 327–54 | — | — |
| Dominic Kelleybalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.51.0–10.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Jayden O'RourkeSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 5.81.8–9.7 | — | — | — | 267–40 |
UNLV
7 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai'Den ThomasELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 12.94.1–21.3 | — | 4914–77 | 2.60.0–4.2 | 170–26 |
| Jackson ArnoldELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 9.81.9–16.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Taeshaun LyonsELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.22.3–13.5 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.2 | 3110–48 |
| Jaylon GloverVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.01.7–11.7 | — | 357–58 | — | — |
| Taz Reddicksbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.92.4–10.9 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.1 | 3710–52 |
| Amorion Walkerbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.82.1–10.5 | — | — | — | 319–46 |
| Kayden McGeebalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.01.2–10.2 | — | — | — | — |
Nevada
- Pass yds
- 144
- Pass yds
- 149
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rush yds
- 32
- Rec yds
- 26
UNLV
- Rush yds
- 49
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 17
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rush yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rec yds
- 31
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai'Den ThomasRB · UNLV | Rushing yards | 48.5 | 43.9 | 14.2–76.5 | Shop the line |
| Carter JonesQB · NEV | Passing yards | 143.9 | 167.9 | 30.8–232.1 | Shop the line |
| Luke DuncanQB · NEV | Passing yards | 149.1 | 167.0 | 34.0–235.1 | Shop the line |
| Taeshaun LyonsWR · UNLV | Receiving yards | 31.3 | 27.1 | 10.3–47.9 | Shop the line |
| Jaylon GloverRB · UNLV | Rushing yards | 34.6 | 27.8 | 6.7–58.0 | Shop the line |
| Taz ReddicksWR · UNLV | Receiving yards | 37.0 | 24.6 | 9.7–52.3 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 48.5
- Median
- 43.9
- 20th–80th
- 14.2–76.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 143.9
- Median
- 167.9
- 20th–80th
- 30.8–232.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 149.1
- Median
- 167.0
- 20th–80th
- 34.0–235.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 31.3
- Median
- 27.1
- 20th–80th
- 10.3–47.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 34.6
- Median
- 27.8
- 20th–80th
- 6.7–58.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 37.0
- Median
- 24.6
- 20th–80th
- 9.7–52.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated