Air Force Falcons at New Mexico Lobos college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 28
- 4:30 PM EST
- Venue
- New Mexico home
- University Stadium (NM)
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 11 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Air Force visits New Mexico in Week 13.
Air Force travels to New Mexico at University Stadium (NM). No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 11 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Jack Layne (UNM), Liam Szarka (AF), and Owen Allen (AF).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
11 player distributions are available, led by Jack Layne (UNM).
Venue context
New Mexico is the designated home team at University Stadium (NM).
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:31+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:31+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Air Force pass protection vs New Mexico pass rush
Air Force's pass protection graded 62.5 in 2025 (92nd of 136); New Mexico's pass rush graded 70.9 (10th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for New Mexico's pass rush.
New Mexico pass protection vs Air Force pass rush
New Mexico's pass protection graded 58.7 in 2025 (113th of 136); Air Force's pass rush graded 69.1 (24th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Air Force's pass rush.
Air Force receiving corps vs New Mexico coverage
Air Force's receiving corps graded 74.9 in 2025 (1st of 136); New Mexico's coverage graded 65.2 (60th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Air Force's receiving corps. Air Force's receiving corps returns only 19.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
New Mexico receiving corps vs Air Force coverage
New Mexico's receiving corps graded 64.3 in 2025 (74th of 136); Air Force's coverage graded 56.2 (132nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for New Mexico's receiving corps.
Air Force rush offense vs New Mexico run defense
Air Force's rush offense graded 73.0 in 2025 (94th of 136); New Mexico's run defense graded 71.6 (22nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for New Mexico's run defense.
New Mexico rush offense vs Air Force run defense
New Mexico's rush offense graded 71.4 in 2025 (108th of 136); Air Force's run defense graded 64.8 (101st). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Air Force
5 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam SzarkaHIGH CEILING · Tier 4 | QB | 16.04.7–25.9 | — | 6319–77 | — | — |
| Owen AllenHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 12.94.3–19.7 | — | 7020–103 | — | — |
| Kemper HodgesSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 10.12.2–16.6 | — | 4410–71 | — | — |
| Josh JohnsonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 9.51.7–15.0 | — | — | — | — |
| Jonah DawsonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 8.12.6–12.2 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.7 | 4313–67 |
New Mexico
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Laynebalanced · Tier 3 | QB | 16.15.5–26.2 | 16679–234 | — | — | — |
| Troy Omeirebalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 9.63.3–15.8 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.3 | 4814–66 |
| James LaubsteinSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 9.22.2–16.2 | — | 409–64 | — | — |
| Cade KeithVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 9.13.2–14.7 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.6 | 3912–59 |
| Simon Mapabalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 6.51.7–10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Zhaiel Smithbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.6–10.0 | — | — | — | 267–31 |
Air Force
- Rush yds
- 63
- Rush yds
- 70
- Rush yds
- 44
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 43
New Mexico
- Pass yds
- 166
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 48
- Rush yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 39
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack LayneQB · UNM | Passing yards | 165.9 | 177.8 | 78.6–234.3 | Shop the line |
| Liam SzarkaQB · AF | Rushing yards | 63.0 | 50.4 | 18.9–76.9 | Shop the line |
| Owen AllenRB · AF | Rushing yards | 70.3 | 62.4 | 19.8–103.4 | Shop the line |
| Troy OmeireWR · UNM | Receiving yards | 47.8 | 36.1 | 14.0–65.8 | Shop the line |
| Kemper HodgesQB · AF | Rushing yards | 43.6 | 34.6 | 9.6–71.0 | Shop the line |
| James LaubsteinQB · UNM | Rushing yards | 40.1 | 38.9 | 9.4–64.4 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 165.9
- Median
- 177.8
- 20th–80th
- 78.6–234.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 63.0
- Median
- 50.4
- 20th–80th
- 18.9–76.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 70.3
- Median
- 62.4
- 20th–80th
- 19.8–103.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 47.8
- Median
- 36.1
- 20th–80th
- 14.0–65.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 43.6
- Median
- 34.6
- 20th–80th
- 9.6–71.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 40.1
- Median
- 38.9
- 20th–80th
- 9.4–64.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated