Texas State Bobcats at Boise State Broncos college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 31
- 10:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Boise State home
- Albertsons Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 16 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Texas State visits Boise State in Week 9.
Texas State travels to Boise State at Albertsons Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 16 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Brad Jackson (TXST), Maddux Madsen (BOIS), and Dylan Riley (BOIS).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
16 player distributions are available, led by Brad Jackson (TXST).
Venue context
Boise State is the designated home team at Albertsons Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:17+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:17+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Texas State pass protection vs Boise State pass rush
Texas State's pass protection graded 71.9 in 2025 (21st of 136); Boise State's pass rush graded 65.1 (73rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Texas State's pass protection.
Boise State pass protection vs Texas State pass rush
Boise State's pass protection graded 58.4 in 2025 (116th of 136); Texas State's pass rush graded 70.4 (12th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Texas State's pass rush.
Texas State receiving corps vs Boise State coverage
Texas State's receiving corps graded 64.7 in 2025 (65th of 136); Boise State's coverage graded 69.6 (22nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Boise State's coverage.
Boise State receiving corps vs Texas State coverage
Boise State's receiving corps graded 61.0 in 2025 (113th of 136); Texas State's coverage graded 62.4 (88th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Texas State's coverage.
Texas State rush offense vs Boise State run defense
Texas State's rush offense graded 80.7 in 2025 (17th of 136); Boise State's run defense graded 62.7 (119th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Texas State's rush offense.
Boise State rush offense vs Texas State run defense
Boise State's rush offense graded 80.6 in 2025 (18th of 136); Texas State's run defense graded 66.9 (66th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Boise State's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Texas State
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad JacksonELITE · Tier 2 | QB | 23.69.9–31.1 | 207136–264 | 5711–85 | — | — |
| Beau SparksELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 14.04.7–22.4 | — | — | 4.51.1–6.9 | 5823–81 |
| Chris Dawn Jr.ELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 14.54.9–21.3 | — | — | 4.51.0–6.4 | 5922–86 |
| Jaylen JenkinsVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.11.5–11.4 | — | 326–53 | — | — |
| Kylen EvansSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.32.0–10.4 | — | — | — | 288–41 |
| Blake SmithSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 6.31.8–10.2 | — | — | — | 277–37 |
Boise State
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddux MadsenHIGH CEILING · Tier 3 | QB | 16.06.2–26.0 | 200113–263 | — | — | — |
| Dylan RileyVOLATILE · Tier 5 | RB | 14.75.1–22.1 | — | 6619–100 | — | — |
| Max Cutforthbalanced · Tier 5 | QB | 11.53.7–22.0 | 19585–273 | — | — | — |
| Sire Gainesbalanced · Tier 5 | RB | 10.33.8–17.0 | — | 5314–81 | — | — |
| Ben FordVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 9.22.9–13.9 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.6 | 3512–55 |
| Cameron BatesVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.52.3–13.4 | — | — | 2.91.1–4.3 | 3710–53 |
| Quinton BrownHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 7.82.1–13.0 | — | — | — | 308–35 |
| Matt WagnerSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 6.81.9–11.1 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 319–45 |
| Juelz Goffbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.61.5–11.4 | — | 325–54 | — | — |
| Harry Stewart IIISAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 6.11.5–10.4 | — | 305–50 | — | — |
Texas State
- Pass yds
- 207
- Rush yds
- 57
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 58
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 59
- Rush yds
- 32
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rec yds
- 27
Boise State
- Pass yds
- 200
- Rush yds
- 66
- Pass yds
- 195
- Rush yds
- 53
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rush yds
- 32
- Rush yds
- 30
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad JacksonQB · TXST | Passing yards | 206.6 | 201.7 | 136.3–263.9 | Shop the line |
| Maddux MadsenQB · BOIS | Passing yards | 200.1 | 202.4 | 112.5–262.5 | Shop the line |
| Dylan RileyRB · BOIS | Rushing yards | 65.5 | 56.5 | 18.7–100.2 | Shop the line |
| Beau SparksWR · TXST | Receiving yards | 58.2 | 42.4 | 23.3–81.4 | Shop the line |
| Chris Dawn Jr.WR · TXST | Receiving yards | 59.0 | 47.4 | 21.6–86.2 | Shop the line |
| Max CutforthQB · BOIS | Passing yards | 194.8 | 208.3 | 84.9–273.4 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 206.6
- Median
- 201.7
- 20th–80th
- 136.3–263.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 200.1
- Median
- 202.4
- 20th–80th
- 112.5–262.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 65.5
- Median
- 56.5
- 20th–80th
- 18.7–100.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 58.2
- Median
- 42.4
- 20th–80th
- 23.3–81.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 59.0
- Median
- 47.4
- 20th–80th
- 21.6–86.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 194.8
- Median
- 208.3
- 20th–80th
- 84.9–273.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated