BYU Cougars at TCU Horned Frogs college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 3
- Time TBA
- Venue
- TCU home
- Amon G. Carter Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 14 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
BYU visits TCU in Week 5.
BYU travels to TCU at Amon G. Carter Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 14 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to LJ Martin (BYU), Bear Bachmeier (BYU), and Jeremy Payne (TCU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
14 player distributions are available, led by LJ Martin (BYU).
Venue context
TCU is the designated home team at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
BYU pass protection vs TCU pass rush
BYU's pass protection graded 70.7 in 2025 (29th of 136); TCU's pass rush graded 62.2 (108th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for BYU's pass protection.
TCU pass protection vs BYU pass rush
TCU's pass protection graded 71.5 in 2025 (23rd of 136); BYU's pass rush graded 64.0 (82nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for TCU's pass protection.
BYU receiving corps vs TCU coverage
BYU's receiving corps graded 68.7 in 2025 (17th of 136); TCU's coverage graded 64.4 (71st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for BYU's receiving corps.
TCU receiving corps vs BYU coverage
TCU's receiving corps graded 69.3 in 2025 (11th of 136); BYU's coverage graded 67.7 (30th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for TCU's receiving corps.
BYU rush offense vs TCU run defense
BYU's rush offense graded 79.3 in 2025 (27th of 136); TCU's run defense graded 76.3 (2nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for TCU's run defense.
TCU rush offense vs BYU run defense
TCU's rush offense graded 75.5 in 2025 (65th of 136); BYU's run defense graded 67.2 (62nd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
BYU
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LJ MartinELITE · Tier 2 | RB | 19.98.6–26.4 | — | 7826–106 | 3.30.9–5.7 | 260–42 |
| Bear BachmeierSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | QB | 12.84.2–22.9 | 15774–232 | — | — | — |
| Treyson BourguetHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 9.72.2–18.5 | 11929–214 | — | — | — |
| Sione MoaSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 7.11.7–11.7 | — | — | 1.60.0–3.0 | — |
| Jojo Phillipsbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 7.01.9–11.1 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 339–47 |
| Walker LyonsHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 6.91.9–10.8 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.6 | — |
TCU
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy PayneVOLATILE · Tier 5 | RB | 14.45.1–21.7 | — | 7024–105 | — | 150–21 |
| Jordan Dwyerbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 11.43.8–19.1 | — | — | 3.91.0–5.9 | 4917–75 |
| Jeremy ScottSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 10.13.4–17.8 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.2 | 5014–73 |
| Ed SmallVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 7.12.2–12.1 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.3 | 349–52 |
| Jon Denmanbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.01.7–11.8 | — | 344–55 | — | — |
| Major EverhartHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 6.51.8–10.6 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.1 | 318–39 |
| Lafayette KaiuwayVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 5.91.5–9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Ka'Morreun PimptonHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 6.11.6–10.3 | — | — | — | 276–31 |
BYU
- Rush yds
- 78
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 26
- Pass yds
- 157
- Pass yds
- 119
- Receptions
- 1.6
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 33
- Receptions
- 2.5
TCU
- Rush yds
- 70
- Rec yds
- 15
- Receptions
- 3.9
- Rec yds
- 49
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rush yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LJ MartinRB · BYU | Rushing yards | 78.1 | 61.9 | 26.0–106.4 | Shop the line |
| Bear BachmeierQB · BYU | Passing yards | 157.0 | 204.1 | 73.5–232.0 | Shop the line |
| Jeremy PayneRB · TCU | Rushing yards | 69.6 | 61.9 | 23.7–105.0 | Shop the line |
| Jordan DwyerWR · TCU | Receiving yards | 49.3 | 38.1 | 16.9–75.3 | Shop the line |
| Jeremy ScottWR · TCU | Receiving yards | 50.1 | 34.7 | 13.9–73.2 | Shop the line |
| Treyson BourguetQB · BYU | Passing yards | 118.9 | 157.7 | 28.9–214.1 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 78.1
- Median
- 61.9
- 20th–80th
- 26.0–106.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 157.0
- Median
- 204.1
- 20th–80th
- 73.5–232.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 69.6
- Median
- 61.9
- 20th–80th
- 23.7–105.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 49.3
- Median
- 38.1
- 20th–80th
- 16.9–75.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 50.1
- Median
- 34.7
- 20th–80th
- 13.9–73.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 118.9
- Median
- 157.7
- 20th–80th
- 28.9–214.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated