Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 3
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Arizona State home
- Mountain America Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 19 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Baylor visits Arizona State in Week 5.
Baylor travels to Arizona State at Mountain America Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 19 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Mikey Keene (ASU), DJ Lagway (BAY), and Cutter Boley (ASU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
19 player distributions are available, led by Mikey Keene (ASU).
Venue context
Arizona State is the designated home team at Mountain America Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Baylor pass protection vs Arizona State pass rush
Baylor's pass protection graded 65.2 in 2025 (76th of 136); Arizona State's pass rush graded 60.1 (132nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Baylor's pass protection.
Arizona State pass protection vs Baylor pass rush
Arizona State's pass protection graded 69.9 in 2025 (36th of 136); Baylor's pass rush graded 61.2 (121st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Arizona State's pass protection. Arizona State's pass protection returns only 23.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Baylor receiving corps vs Arizona State coverage
Baylor's receiving corps graded 65.8 in 2025 (53rd of 136); Arizona State's coverage graded 67.6 (31st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Arizona State's coverage.
Arizona State receiving corps vs Baylor coverage
Arizona State's receiving corps graded 60.4 in 2025 (119th of 136); Baylor's coverage graded 66.6 (41st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Baylor's coverage.
Baylor rush offense vs Arizona State run defense
Baylor's rush offense graded 73.1 in 2025 (91st of 136); Arizona State's run defense graded 71.4 (25th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Arizona State's run defense.
Arizona State rush offense vs Baylor run defense
Arizona State's rush offense graded 78.2 in 2025 (39th of 136); Baylor's run defense graded 63.5 (113th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Arizona State's rush offense. Arizona State's rush offense returns only 10.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Baylor
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ LagwayVOLATILE · Tier 5 | QB | 14.94.8–23.7 | 18680–242 | 26-1–43 | — | — |
| Gavin Freemanbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 12.44.2–19.9 | — | — | 4.31.1–6.4 | 5317–76 |
| Dawson Pendergrassbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 10.94.0–19.7 | — | 5316–85 | — | — |
| Louis Brown IVELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 9.23.2–14.8 | — | — | 3.51.0–5.1 | 5015–69 |
| Michael Turnerbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 8.22.1–13.1 | — | 4112–68 | — | — |
| Dre'lon MillerHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 7.62.2–13.1 | — | — | 2.30.1–3.3 | 284–45 |
| Caden Knightenbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 8.22.1–12.8 | — | 4012–69 | — | — |
| Jadon Porterbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.51.9–10.5 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 288–41 |
| Matthew KlopfensteinVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 6.71.7–10.8 | — | — | — | 289–38 |
| Tony LivingstonELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 6.71.9–10.7 | — | — | — | 318–42 |
Arizona State
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikey KeeneSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | QB | 13.95.7–23.6 | 211125–272 | — | — | — |
| Cutter BoleyELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 15.03.5–24.2 | 20076–260 | — | — | — |
| Omarion MillerSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 13.74.5–21.1 | — | — | 4.11.0–6.2 | 5621–85 |
| Reed HarrisELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 10.73.7–18.0 | — | — | 3.61.0–5.2 | 5215–77 |
| Derek EusebioELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 9.33.1–14.7 | — | — | 3.01.0–5.0 | 3912–61 |
| Jalen MossELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.02.7–12.1 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.4 | 4110–55 |
| Jaren HamiltonELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 7.42.1–12.8 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.1 | 3611–57 |
| Jason Brown Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 5.91.2–10.2 | — | 264–47 | — | — |
| Anthony Millerbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 6.11.6–9.7 | — | — | — | — |
Baylor
- Pass yds
- 186
- Rush yds
- 26
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 53
- Rush yds
- 53
- Receptions
- 3.5
- Rec yds
- 50
- Rush yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rush yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rec yds
- 31
Arizona State
- Pass yds
- 211
- Pass yds
- 200
- Receptions
- 4.1
- Rec yds
- 56
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 52
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 36
- Rush yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikey KeeneQB · ASU | Passing yards | 210.7 | 233.4 | 124.7–271.5 | Shop the line |
| DJ LagwayQB · BAY | Passing yards | 185.6 | 184.6 | 80.3–242.4 | Shop the line |
| Cutter BoleyQB · ASU | Passing yards | 199.5 | 202.6 | 76.3–259.7 | Shop the line |
| Gavin FreemanWR · BAY | Receiving yards | 52.5 | 41.2 | 16.5–75.7 | Shop the line |
| Omarion MillerWR · ASU | Receiving yards | 55.8 | 43.7 | 20.6–84.5 | Shop the line |
| Dawson PendergrassRB · BAY | Rushing yards | 53.2 | 51.4 | 16.4–85.1 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 210.7
- Median
- 233.4
- 20th–80th
- 124.7–271.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 185.6
- Median
- 184.6
- 20th–80th
- 80.3–242.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 199.5
- Median
- 202.6
- 20th–80th
- 76.3–259.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 52.5
- Median
- 41.2
- 20th–80th
- 16.5–75.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 55.8
- Median
- 43.7
- 20th–80th
- 20.6–84.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 53.2
- Median
- 51.4
- 20th–80th
- 16.4–85.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated