Locke held under 20 by Benson top-lock + chase scheme.
Burton attacks Macdonald off ball screens — foul trouble likely by H2.
Bulldogs stay under 12 turnovers against BSJ's help-off defense.
Mueller out for season — projection plans without him; Plumlee is the sole stretch five.
§ Defense
What Banana Slugs give up
PPG allowed67.3
FG% allowed39.4%
2P% allowed45.1%
3P% allowed29.2%
3PM allowed7.0
REB allowed39.7
AST allowed11.7
FTA allowed16.3
TO forced8.0
Most FTA allowed in this sample· 16.3 per game2nd-fewest turnovers forced· 8.0 per game
Our attack theme
Attack downhill. They allow the most free throws in this opponent set at 16.3 per game, give up 39.7 rebounds, and force only 8.0 turnovers. For Bulldogs, this should be a Burton, Plumlee, Benson pressure game first, perimeter game second.
Bottom lineRim pressure, foul pressure, boards.
Per-game averages allowed, derived from 3 games per team in the uploaded league box scores. Small sample — real signal, still small.
§ Exploit
Bulldogs exploit sheet
Weakness to forceFree throws, boards, and low turnover pressure. BSJ allows 16.3 FTA, 39.7 rebounds, and forces only 8.0 turnovers per game.
This should be a Burton pressure game first. Macdonald is their one real rim deterrent, but BSJ's overall profile says attack downhill, get to the line, and own the glass. Benson is the guy who should create the crack. Burton is the guy who should cash it. Attila should live in the weak-side punish space because BSJ has multiple help-off defenders.
First 3 actions to call
1Empty-side Benson-Burton high PnR at Macdonald
2Plumlee-Burton re-screen PnR on the next trip if Macdonald sits back
3Attila drift corner behind roll help after the first paint touch
Shot dietDrive first, spray second.
Staff cardBurton first. Benson bends it. Attila punishes help. Call: high PnR, re-screen, drift corner.
§ Shot diet
Target shot diet — Drive-to-kick
15-17
Team 3PA target
Mark Plumlee
Primary shooter
Jeff Attila
Secondary
Inside-out
Theme
Most designed 3PA should land with Plumlee and Attila off Benson creation, then Benson as the second-touch shooter. BSJ allows only 7.0 made threes per game, and Macdonald is their one consistent rim deterrent despite finishing at 25% on 2s himself. This should be an inside-out game, not an early-clock bombing contest.
Macdonald blocks enough early looks to change the offense
If none of those happen, Bulldogs should control the game. This is not a game Bulldogs should lose by accident. It only becomes dangerous if Bulldogs let BSJ play its preferred variance style.
§ Read
Matchup read in plain language
BSJ does not have enough balanced offense to beat Bulldogs cleanly. The danger is not their structure. The danger is one scorer catching fire and the game turning sloppy. Bulldogs should aim to make every non-Locke possession feel like work. If the ball starts swinging to Simpson, Pahl, Sweet, or a pressured Boyd/Withers, the defense has won the possession already.
Plumlee on Boyd or Withers, depending on who starts
Attila on Simpson
D. O'Reilly on the bigger secondary body
§ Coverage
What to deny · What to dare
What to deny
Locke catches above the break
Locke trail threes
Easy DHO or pin-down rhythm into Locke pull-up threes
Macdonald set at the rim on first-touch paint attacks
Any possession where Locke gets to shoot the first clean look without changing sides of the floor
What to dare
Simpson jumpers
Pahl volume
Sweet finishing over a set body
Boyd tough pull-ups, until he proves he has a real scoring night
Macdonald jumpers from 15 feet and out
Withers making multiple decisions under pressure instead of catching and playing simple
§ First five
First five priorities
First five — offense
1Bring Macdonald into the first screen of the game
2Get one early rim run for Burton
3Make Locke guard an action, not stand in the corner and rest
4Touch the paint before the first non-transition three
5Push after every Locke miss
First five — defense
1Top-lock Locke immediately
2Help from the top, never from the strong-side corner
3Sit in the gaps on Simpson and Sweet
4End the possession with the rebound
5Do not foul bailout shooters
§ Script
Scripted first five possessions
1Empty-side Benson and Burton pick-and-roll with Macdonald involved
2Plumlee off a pin-down into catch and attack
3Attila DHO with Burton slip, forcing Macdonald to choose
4Benson reject screen if Locke top-locks badly on the other end and is off-balance in transition defense
5Burton seal if BSJ scrambles after early paint pressure
§ Why
Why those first actions matter
The point of the opening script is to make Macdonald move, make Locke defend, and force BSJ to play connected defense. They do not have enough trustworthy defenders to solve repeated actions if Bulldogs stay disciplined. If Bulldogs score early in the paint, the rest of the offense opens naturally.
§ Bench
Bench and rotation notes
First frontcourt sub should be Morrison if Burton gets one early foul or if the glass is loose
Smith is useful if available because BSJ cannot match multiple live scorers
Do not overplay small lineups just because BSJ shoots a lot of threes. Their shooting quality is still poor outside Locke
If Withers is active and looks comfortable, be quicker to pressure his handle than to switch Benson off Locke
§ Scout
Opponent personnel & directives
Identity: Locke or Bust
Jeffrey Locke = 70 of their season pts = 41% of team scoring. KJ disrupted him in Apr 16, BSJ scored 47 total. Pattern: defenses that disrupt Locke's rhythm hold BSJ under 55.
Pre-Tip Checklist — Apr 23
Mueller ruled out for the season — plan around his absence, not for his return. Confirm Smith availability. Walk through Locke top-lock with wings. Define trap rules on ball screens (trap or ICE?). Identify transition triggers (any Locke miss = sprint). Foul budget set: Burton 3 by half.
Make every touch of his start farther from the arc
If Macdonald has two fouls
Attack him every trip until they sub him or hide him
No settling
Force him to choose between verticality and caution
If Boyd is their second scorer
Switch the coverage to make him drive
Stay attached to Locke anyway
Make Boyd finish over size instead of rhythm shooting
If Bulldogs are up but the game feels messy
Slow down one gear in the half court
Keep paint touches first
Stop giving away heat-check threes
Make them guard a full possession every trip
§ Late
End-of-half and late-game details
If the last two minutes of a half become foul-heavy, do not let the ball find the wrong hands by default. Make BSJ guard action, then get to Burton or the best available foul-line option. On the other end, if the score is tight, strategic fouling is live against everyone except Locke.
§ Close
If ahead · If behind or tied
If ahead
Keep the ball out of Plumlee and D. O'Reilly as primary foul release options
Make BSJ defend action, then hit Burton (Mueller out for season)
No quick-clock threes unless it is a true layup-level catch
If behind or tied
Foul anyone except Locke if the math calls for it
Do not gift Locke a two-possession swing with and-one chances
Make the game physical for their weaker creators
§ Dossier
Shorthand game plan — original dossier notes
When we have the ball
Rim pressure first — attack Macdonald off the bounce, not in post.
Pace up — 80+ possessions. They can't score without Locke in transition.
Benson + Plumlee + Attila triple-threat ball screens.
Burton dives on every PnR action — Macdonald bites on Locke help scheme.