May 17, 2026 · Projected Box Score

Las Vegas Aces @ Atlanta Dream

Sunday, May 17 at 1:30 PM EDT

Total160.7

SpreadLV -3.5

LV82.1

ATL78.6

Out: Brionna Jones (ATL), Dana Evans (LV)

Atlanta's no-three/no-foul shell creates a useful Aces fade board.

The model still respects A'ja Wilson's scoring, but Atlanta is one of the worst matchups for Las Vegas perimeter add-ons. The total is only 160.7 and Atlanta suppresses above-break threes, corner threes, and free throws.

Aces 3PM fadesLow totalA'ja exceptionATL shell

Projected total160.7

ATL ATB3 makes z-1.52

ATL LC3 makes z-0.98

ATL FTA z-1.33

A'ja Wilson PTS21.0

Method note: Curated from the refreshed WNBA projection payload, ESPN source snapshots, and 2026 defense profiles.

Headline Plays

Market-aware where live lines exist; otherwise model watches.

A'ja Wilson PTS watch

PTS21.0 pts

Line-dependent

A'ja still owns the top game projection, so this is not a full scoring fade.
The play needs a modest line because Atlanta removes some easy efficiency paths.

Allisha Gray 3PM lean

3PM1.55 3PM

Small edge

Gray's 3PM projection is modest, but a 1.5 line can be playable if plus price appears.
This is secondary to the Aces fade board, not a headline over.

Atlanta guard props watch

PTS / ASTGray 16.4, Howard 14.4, Canada 10.2

Secondary

Las Vegas is vulnerable in mid-range and pick-and-roll channels, which keeps Atlanta's guards in the pool.
The total is low enough that price discipline matters.

Fades and Passes

Where the projection disagrees with likely market enthusiasm.

A'ja Wilson 3PM over

3PM0.49 3PM

Under lean

Atlanta suppresses above-break and corner threes.
Wilson's scoring projection does not require made threes.

Jewell Loyd / Jackie Young 3PM overs

3PMLoyd 1.04, Young 1.32

Under lean

Atlanta's perimeter shell is the wrong matchup for expensive Aces 3PM overs.
If books price these on name value, the structure points under.

Rhyne Howard 3PM over if raised

3PM2.28 3PM

Pass at 3.5

Howard is still Atlanta's best shooter, but this matchup is not the Dallas funnel.
A 3.5 line would be a pass or fade rather than an automatic over.

Matchup Levers

The NCAA dossier pattern: explain what the number means.

Atlanta removes threes

ATL is -1.52 on above-break makes, -0.98 on left-corner makes, and -0.76 on right-corner makes. That is the whole Aces 3PM fade case.

Atlanta removes free throws

ATL FTA z is -1.33, so Las Vegas cannot rely on whistle volume to offset perimeter suppression.

A'ja is the exception

Wilson still projects for 21.0 points. The fade is on ancillary three-point markets, not her entire scoring profile.

Game Script

How to read the projected box score before checking prices.

Total posture

At 160.7, this is a player-specific under/fade environment more than a full-game over screen.

Side posture

Las Vegas projects by 3.5, but the edge is not large enough to carry aggressive Aces stacks.

Watch List

Check Aces 3PM lines before assuming any under value.
Keep A'ja points separate from A'ja threes.
Monitor Atlanta guard minutes after the prior Howard/Gray role volatility.

Caveats

This is primarily a 3PM/efficiency writeup, not a full Aces scoring fade.
Las Vegas star usage can beat a bad zone profile if minutes spike.
Atlanta's defensive profile still needs more 2026 possessions before it becomes fully trusted.

Las Vegas Aces (LV)

200.0 min · 82.1 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
A'ja Wilson	C	29.5	21.0	5.0	3.1	0.49	4.1	blended · 3G
Jackie Young	G	29.4	14.7	4.0	5.4	1.32	1.9	blended · 3G
Chennedy Carter	G	15.4	10.4	0.8	1.1	0.28	1.9	2026 only · 3G
Chelsea Gray	G	29.4	10.0	2.3	6.2	1.29	1.3	blended · 3G
NaLyssa Smith	F	21.1	8.3	5.4	1.0	0.08	1.4	blended · 3G
Jewell Loyd	G	27.6	7.8	3.9	1.8	1.04	0.9	blended · 3G
Stephanie Talbot	F	15.8	5.1	1.4	1.1	0.28	0.8	2026 only · 3G
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus	F	7.3	2.3	2.5	0.6	0.00	1.1	2026 only · 3G
Kierstan Bell	F	12.7	1.4	1.7	0.8	0.28	0.0	2026 only · 3G
Brianna Turner	F	11.8	1.1	2.8	0.3	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 3G
Team total		200.0	82.1	29.8	21.4	5.1	13.4

No 2025 baseline available: Janiah Barker

Atlanta Dream (ATL)

200.0 min · 78.6 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
Allisha Gray	G	31.9	16.4	6.7	2.2	1.55	3.8	blended · 2G
Rhyne Howard	G	33.1	14.4	3.9	5.2	2.28	2.6	blended · 2G
Angel Reese	F	29.6	12.8	12.4	1.4	0.08	4.1	blended · 2G
Jordin Canada	G	26.0	10.2	1.4	5.1	0.83	2.4	blended · 2G
Naz Hillmon	F	24.7	7.2	4.6	1.7	0.98	1.0	blended · 2G
Madina Okot	C	10.4	5.7	3.4	0.3	0.34	2.0	2026 only · 2G
Te-Hina Paopao	G	11.0	3.8	2.6	1.5	0.65	0.1	blended · 2G
Aaliyah Nye	G	13.5	3.4	2.0	1.3	0.67	2.0	2026 only · 1G
Indya Nivar	G	9.4	2.7	1.3	0.0	0.00	1.3	2026 only · 1G
Sika Kone	F	4.7	1.3	0.7	0.0	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 2G
Isobel Borlase	G	5.7	0.7	0.3	0.7	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 2G
Team total		200.0	78.6	39.3	19.4	7.4	19.3

Defense z-scores (makes allowed)

Positive = team allows above-average makes in that zone

Team	RA	PNR	MR	ATB3	LC3	RC3	FTA
LV	-0.88	+2.69	+1.07	-0.74	-1.35	-0.95	-0.81
ATL	+0.11	+0.09	+1.77	-1.52	-0.98	-0.76	-1.33

Method: 2025 player baselines blended with 2026 in-season form (1-3 games), adjusted by opponent's per-zone defense z-scores. Minutes normalized to exactly 200 per team — starters capped at 36, bench at 18, per-minute rates preserved. Rookies and new-to-WNBA players carry a "no 2025 baseline" tag — their lines need market priors before they're calibrated.

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

A'ja Wilson

29.5

21.0

5.0

3.1

0.49

4.1

blended · 3G

Jackie Young

29.4

14.7

4.0

5.4

1.32

1.9

blended · 3G

Chennedy Carter

15.4

10.4

0.8

1.1

0.28

1.9

2026 only · 3G

Chelsea Gray

29.4

10.0

2.3

6.2

1.29

1.3

blended · 3G

NaLyssa Smith

21.1

8.3

5.4

1.0

0.08

1.4

blended · 3G

Jewell Loyd

27.6

7.8

3.9

1.8

1.04

0.9

blended · 3G

Stephanie Talbot

15.8

5.1

1.4

1.1

0.28

0.8

2026 only · 3G

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus

7.3

2.3

2.5

0.6

0.00

1.1

2026 only · 3G

Kierstan Bell

12.7

1.4

1.7

0.8

0.28

0.0

2026 only · 3G

Brianna Turner

11.8

1.1

2.8

0.3

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 3G

Team total

200.0

82.1

29.8

21.4

5.1

13.4

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

Allisha Gray

31.9

16.4

6.7

2.2

1.55

3.8

blended · 2G

Rhyne Howard

33.1

14.4

3.9

5.2

2.28

2.6

blended · 2G

Angel Reese

29.6

12.8

12.4

1.4

0.08

4.1

blended · 2G

Jordin Canada

26.0

10.2

1.4

5.1

0.83

2.4

blended · 2G

Naz Hillmon

24.7

7.2

4.6

1.7

0.98

1.0

blended · 2G

Madina Okot

10.4

5.7

3.4

0.3

0.34

2.0

2026 only · 2G

Te-Hina Paopao

11.0

3.8

2.6

1.5

0.65

0.1

blended · 2G

Aaliyah Nye

13.5

3.4

2.0

1.3

0.67

2.0

2026 only · 1G

Indya Nivar

9.4

2.7

1.3

0.0

0.00

1.3

2026 only · 1G

Sika Kone

4.7

1.3

0.7

0.0

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 2G

Isobel Borlase

5.7

0.7

0.3

0.7

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 2G

Team total

200.0

78.6

39.3

19.4

7.4

19.3

Team

PNR

ATB3

LC3

RC3

FTA

-0.88

+2.69

+1.07

-0.74

-1.35

-0.95

-0.81

ATL

+0.11

+0.09

+1.77

-1.52

-0.98

-0.76

-1.33