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Independent basketball projections and scouting notes. Outputs are directional, not calibrated betting advice.
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May 15, 2026 · Projected Box Score

Chicago Sky @ Phoenix Mercury

Friday, May 15 at 10:00 PM EDT

Total174.0
SpreadPHX -17.0
CHI78.5
PHX95.5
Out: Monique Akoa Makani (PHX), Sami Whitcomb (PHX), DiJonai Carrington (CHI), Courtney Vandersloot (CHI)

Phoenix gets the Chicago perimeter funnel and a top-tier team total.

Chicago's defensive profile is friendly to right-corner threes, above-break threes, and mid-range makes. Phoenix projects for 95.5 points and 12.8 threes, which makes the Mercury side the cleaner half of this matchup.

PHX team totalChicago 3PT funnelNogic volatilityEarly sample
PHX projected pts95.5
PHX projected 3PM12.8
CHI RC3 makes z+2.32
CHI ATB3 makes z+0.98
Projected marginPHX -17.0
Method note: Curated from the refreshed WNBA projection payload, ESPN source snapshots, and 2026 defense profiles.

Headline Plays

Market-aware where live lines exist; otherwise model watches.
1

Jovana Nogic 3PM watch

3PM4.00 3PM
High-variance shooter
  • Nogic owns the highest made-three projection in the game and Chicago's profile is weakest on corner and above-break makes.
  • This is a volatility play because her projection is 2026-only and can move hard with minutes.
2

Kahleah Copper PTS / 3PM watch

PTS / 3PM16.8 pts, 2.18 3PM
Clean matchup fit
  • Copper benefits from Chicago's perimeter concessions without needing the whole offense to run through one zone.
  • Points is safer than threes if her 3PM line prices in the full matchup boost.
3

Alyssa Thomas AST / PTS lean

AST / PTS15.8 pts, 9.8 ast
Role-driven
  • Thomas has the clearest playmaking projection on the slate.
  • The assist case strengthens if Phoenix's shooters stay in the starting/closing mix.
4

Phoenix team total watch

Team total95.5 pts
Team environment
  • Phoenix is one of the strongest team projections in the weekly payload.
  • The path is balanced: threes, mid-range, and enough FTA support against Chicago.

Fades and Passes

Where the projection disagrees with likely market enthusiasm.
1

Chicago road scoring overs

PTS / team total78.5 team pts
Fade if priced close
  • Chicago projects 17 points behind Phoenix and needs a close game to fully support multiple overs.
  • If Skylar Diggins or Rickea Jackson lines assume a full comeback script, the model is less friendly.

Matchup Levers

The NCAA dossier pattern: explain what the number means.

Chicago's right-corner problem

Chicago allows right-corner makes at +2.32 z. That is the strongest single defensive lever in the matchup.

Above-break threes also play

Chicago is +0.98 z on above-break makes, keeping Copper and Phoenix's guard/shooter mix in the prop pool.

Blowout risk matters

The model margin is PHX -17.0. That supports team-side confidence but increases fourth-quarter minute risk for player overs.

Game Script

How to read the projected box score before checking prices.

Total posture

The projected total is 174.0, but the cleaner bet shape is Phoenix-specific rather than a full-game over.

Side posture

Phoenix projects at 95.5 to Chicago's 78.5. If market team totals lag the Chicago defense profile, the Mercury side is the first screen.

Watch List

  • Confirm Nogic's role and minutes before treating her projection as a straight bet.
  • Watch for inflated Phoenix 3PM lines; the matchup is obvious enough that books may adjust.
  • Downgrade Chicago overs if Phoenix's spread grows.

Caveats

  • Nogic is a 2026-only projection and carries high variance.
  • Chicago's defensive profile is still early-season noisy.
  • A large projected margin can pull starters before overs get full fourth-quarter volume.

Chicago Sky (CHI)

200.0 min · 78.5 pts projected
PlayerPosMinPtsRebAst3PMFTASource
Skylar DigginsG31.415.810.56.71.414.8blended · 1G
Rickea JacksonF31.414.36.12.61.512.9blended · 1G
Azura StevensF27.511.65.02.81.522.42025 baseline
Gabriela JaquezG32.010.07.02.01.004.02026 only · 1G
Natasha CloudG28.29.35.12.81.141.82025 baseline
Kamilla CardosoC12.76.47.10.50.011.7blended · 1G
Elizabeth WilliamsC9.63.90.71.30.000.9blended · 1G
Rachel BanhamG11.03.70.01.40.810.7blended · 1G
Jacy SheldonG11.53.51.41.40.530.4blended · 1G
Aicha CoulibalyG2.80.00.90.50.000.02026 only · 1G
Sydney TaylorG1.90.00.00.00.000.02026 only · 1G
Team total200.078.543.822.07.919.6
No 2025 baseline available: Maddy Westbeld

Phoenix Mercury (PHX)

200.0 min · 95.5 pts projected
PlayerPosMinPtsRebAst3PMFTASource
Jovana NogicG24.017.50.52.54.003.52026 only · 2G
Kahleah CopperG27.916.80.42.62.183.7blended · 2G
Alyssa ThomasF31.315.87.49.80.005.0blended · 2G
DeWanna BonnerF24.311.16.72.21.533.1blended · 2G
Natasha MackF27.010.58.51.00.502.02026 only · 2G
Kiana WilliamsG15.98.21.00.52.400.02026 only · 2G
Noemie BrochantF16.48.21.90.01.920.52026 only · 2G
Anneli MaleyF9.64.52.60.30.322.62026 only · 3G
Kyara LinskensC9.11.91.00.50.000.02026 only · 2G
Sha CarterG8.71.01.00.50.000.02026 only · 2G
Peyton WilliamsF5.80.00.01.90.000.02026 only · 1G
Team total200.095.531.021.812.920.4
No 2025 baseline available: Marta Suarez, Shay Ciezki, Valeriane Ayayi

Defense z-scores (makes allowed)

Positive = team allows above-average makes in that zone
TeamRAPNRMRATB3LC3RC3FTA
CHI+0.67-1.63+0.90+0.98+0.48+2.32+0.48
PHX-0.59-0.02+0.42-0.27-0.98+0.59+0.30
Method: 2025 player baselines blended with 2026 in-season form (1-3 games), adjusted by opponent's per-zone defense z-scores. Minutes normalized to exactly 200 per team — starters capped at 36, bench at 18, per-minute rates preserved. Rookies and new-to-WNBA players carry a "no 2025 baseline" tag — their lines need market priors before they're calibrated.