May 14, 2026 · Projected Box Score

New York Liberty @ Portland Fire

Thursday, May 14 at 10:00 PM EDT

Total158.8

SpreadNY -14.4

NY86.6

POR72.2

Out: Karlie Samuelson (POR), Sabrina Ionescu (NY), Marine Fauthoux (NY)

NY by 14.4 in a 158.8 total

Breanna Stewart is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Projected box scoreZone defenseRole volatility

Projected total158.8

Model spreadNY -14.4

Breanna Stewart PTS18.6

Jonquel Jones 3PM1.70

Breanna Stewart REB8.8

Method note: Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.

Headline Plays

Market-aware where live lines exist; otherwise model watches.

Breanna Stewart points watch

PTS18.6 pts

Model watch

Breanna Stewart owns the top scoring projection in this game at 18.6 points over 29.8 minutes.
Do not treat this as a bet without a live line; use it as the first prop to compare against books.

Jonquel Jones 3PM watch

3PM1.70 3PM

Model watch

Jonquel Jones has the highest made-three projection in the matchup.
This becomes actionable only if the live line leaves room below the projection.

Breanna Stewart rebounds watch

REB8.8 reb

Model watch

Breanna Stewart leads the game in projected rebounds.
Check lineup news first; early-season frontcourt roles are still volatile.

Matchup Levers

The NCAA dossier pattern: explain what the number means.

Game Script

How to read the projected box score before checking prices.

Total posture

The projection lands at 158.8, so this is more about player-specific funnels than a blind game-total over.

Side posture

NY grades as the model side by 14.4. Team totals: NY 86.6 and POR 72.2.

Watch List

Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.

New York Liberty (NY)

200.0 min · 86.6 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
Breanna Stewart	F	29.8	18.6	8.8	2.8	0.57	6.4	blended · 3G
Satou Sabally	F	25.8	15.8	4.6	2.6	1.67	4.6	2025 baseline
Jonquel Jones	C	25.7	13.4	6.6	1.1	1.70	2.8	blended · 3G
Leonie Fiebich	F	27.3	8.4	4.9	2.7	1.34	1.6	2025 baseline
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton	G	26.5	7.5	2.0	2.0	0.00	4.0	2026 only · 2G
Pauline Astier	G	13.1	5.9	1.4	2.5	0.00	2.4	2026 only · 3G
Marine Johannes	G	11.3	4.7	1.2	1.1	1.18	0.3	blended · 3G
Rebekah Gardner	G	11.8	4.1	2.4	0.5	0.00	1.9	2026 only · 3G
Han Xu	C	10.7	2.7	1.4	0.4	0.34	0.0	2026 only · 3G
Julie Vanloo	G	7.5	2.5	1.7	2.5	0.51	0.7	2026 only · 3G
Rebecca Allen	G	9.2	2.5	1.7	0.9	0.47	0.4	2025 baseline
Aubrey Griffin	F	1.3	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 2G
Team total		200.0	86.6	36.7	19.1	7.8	25.1

No 2025 baseline available: Raquel Carrera

Portland Fire (POR)

200.0 min · 72.2 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
Sarah Ashlee Barker	G	24.0	13.0	4.0	0.0	1.00	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Bridget Carleton	F	27.8	7.4	1.0	2.5	1.55	0.5	blended · 2G
Sug Sutton	G	25.3	7.2	4.6	2.5	0.97	0.9	2025 baseline
Luisa Geiselsoder	C	22.5	7.0	6.4	1.5	1.00	0.3	blended · 2G
Megan Gustafson	C	9.2	6.6	0.7	0.7	1.32	1.3	2026 only · 1G
Nyadiew Puoch	F	13.2	5.6	0.7	1.3	0.99	1.3	2026 only · 2G
Carla Leite	G	12.4	5.5	1.0	1.4	0.30	1.6	blended · 2G
Haley Jones	G	13.0	4.7	1.4	0.9	0.22	0.7	blended · 2G
Jordan Harrison	G	9.5	4.3	1.0	2.6	0.00	1.6	2026 only · 2G
Emily Engstler	F	23.0	4.0	2.0	2.0	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Serah Williams	C	8.9	3.9	3.3	0.7	0.00	2.6	2026 only · 2G
Frieda Buhner	F	11.2	3.0	1.3	0.0	0.00	1.3	2026 only · 2G
Team total		200.0	72.2	27.4	16.1	7.3	12.1

No 2025 baseline available: Kamiah Smalls, Teja Oblak

Defense z-scores (makes allowed)

Positive = team allows above-average makes in that zone

Team	RA	PNR	MR	ATB3	LC3	RC3	FTA
NY	-0.17	+0.18	+0.37	+0.13	-0.25	-0.56	-0.50
POR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Method: 2025 player baselines blended with 2026 in-season form (1-3 games), adjusted by opponent's per-zone defense z-scores. Minutes normalized to exactly 200 per team — starters capped at 36, bench at 18, per-minute rates preserved. Rookies and new-to-WNBA players carry a "no 2025 baseline" tag — their lines need market priors before they're calibrated.

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

Breanna Stewart

29.8

18.6

8.8

2.8

0.57

6.4

blended · 3G

Satou Sabally

25.8

15.8

4.6

2.6

1.67

4.6

2025 baseline

Jonquel Jones

25.7

13.4

6.6

1.1

1.70

2.8

blended · 3G

Leonie Fiebich

27.3

8.4

4.9

2.7

1.34

1.6

2025 baseline

Betnijah Laney-Hamilton

26.5

7.5

2.0

0.00

4.0

2026 only · 2G

Pauline Astier

13.1

5.9

1.4

2.5

0.00

2.4

2026 only · 3G

Marine Johannes

11.3

4.7

1.2

1.1

1.18

0.3

blended · 3G

Rebekah Gardner

11.8

4.1

2.4

0.5

0.00

1.9

2026 only · 3G

Han Xu

10.7

2.7

1.4

0.4

0.34

0.0

2026 only · 3G

Julie Vanloo

7.5

2.5

1.7

2.5

0.51

0.7

2026 only · 3G

Rebecca Allen

9.2

2.5

1.7

0.9

0.47

0.4

2025 baseline

Aubrey Griffin

1.3

0.5

0.0

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 2G

Team total

200.0

86.6

36.7

19.1

7.8

25.1

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

Sarah Ashlee Barker

24.0

13.0

4.0

0.0

1.00

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Bridget Carleton

27.8

7.4

1.0

2.5

1.55

0.5

blended · 2G

Sug Sutton

25.3

7.2

4.6

2.5

0.97

0.9

2025 baseline

Luisa Geiselsoder

22.5

7.0

6.4

1.5

1.00

0.3

blended · 2G

Megan Gustafson

9.2

6.6

0.7

1.32

1.3

2026 only · 1G

Nyadiew Puoch

13.2

5.6

0.7

1.3

0.99

1.3

2026 only · 2G

Carla Leite

12.4

5.5

1.0

1.4

0.30

1.6

blended · 2G

Haley Jones

13.0

4.7

1.4

0.9

0.22

0.7

blended · 2G

Jordan Harrison

9.5

4.3

1.0

2.6

0.00

1.6

2026 only · 2G

Emily Engstler

23.0

4.0

2.0

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Serah Williams

8.9

3.9

3.3

0.7

0.00

2.6

2026 only · 2G

Frieda Buhner

11.2

3.0

1.3

0.0

0.00

1.3

2026 only · 2G

Team total

200.0

72.2

27.4

16.1

7.3

12.1

Team

PNR

ATB3

LC3

RC3

FTA

-0.17

+0.18

+0.37

+0.13

-0.25

-0.56

-0.50

POR

0.00