May 14, 2026 · Projected Box Score

Minnesota Lynx @ Dallas Wings

Thursday, May 14 at 8:00 PM EDT

Total169.5

SpreadMIN -12.3

MIN90.9

DAL78.6

Out: Napheesa Collier (MIN), Dorka Juhasz (MIN)

Minnesota is the next best Dallas-funnel writeup after ATL-DAL.

Dallas still shows the same pressure points: threes from multiple zones and a massive free-throw-volume allowance. Minnesota projects for 89.0 points, 28.7 free throws, and enough shooting to make McBride and Miles the first reads.

DAL FTA spikeMcBride 3PMMiles 2026-onlyRotation caveat

MIN projected pts89.0

MIN projected FTA28.7

DAL FTA z+1.93

DAL LC3 makes z+1.57

DAL ATB3 makes z+1.23

Method note: Curated from the refreshed WNBA projection payload, ESPN source data, and 2026 defense profiles.

Headline Plays

Market-aware where live lines exist; otherwise model watches.

Kayla McBride 3PM watch

3PM2.91 3PM

Dallas funnel

Dallas is positive on above-break, left-corner, and right-corner made threes.
McBride's 3PM line is playable at 2.5 if price is reasonable; it becomes thin at 3.5.

Kayla McBride PTS watch

PTS17.6 pts

2-star model watch

The made-three projection supports the points case and Dallas adds a free-throw tail.
The projection is model-driven, so the bet still needs a live market number before it becomes actionable.

Olivia Miles PTS watch

PTS17.0 pts

2026-only role read

Miles has no 2025 baseline in the model, so this is still driven by her early 2026 sample.
Dallas' foul profile gives her a path if minutes hold, but this is still a rookie role read.

Minnesota team total watch

Team total89.0 pts

Team environment

The Lynx get Dallas' FTA spike plus friendly perimeter zones.
The cleaner portfolio may be team total plus one shooter instead of stacking every Minnesota player over.

Fades and Passes

Where the projection disagrees with likely market enthusiasm.

Dallas guard scoring overs

PTSDAL 78.6 team pts

Fade if priced high

Dallas projects nearly eleven points behind Minnesota.
Paige Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale need efficient usage in a lower team total than the ATL-DAL setup.

Matchup Levers

The NCAA dossier pattern: explain what the number means.

Dallas still fouls

DAL FTA z is +1.93 and Minnesota projects for 28.7 free throws. That keeps Minnesota scoring props live even if threes miss.

Dallas still gives up threes

DAL is +1.23 on above-break makes and +1.57 on left-corner makes. McBride is the cleanest Minnesota shooter fit.

Minnesota suppresses Dallas' foul path

MIN FTA z is -1.52, so Dallas guard overs should not lean on free throws as a rescue route.

Game Script

How to read the projected box score before checking prices.

Total posture

The projected total is 167.6, which is not a blind over. The actionable shape is Minnesota-specific because Dallas' defense creates the stronger levers.

Side posture

Minnesota projects by 10.4 with a clear team-total edge. The model is less excited about Dallas scoring than it was in the ATL-DAL writeup.

Watch List

Check whether McBride 3PM is 2.5 or 3.5.
Confirm Miles' minutes and starting role; her projection is still 2026-only.
Avoid over-stacking Minnesota if Dallas' rotation news lowers pace.

Caveats

Minnesota rotations are still being reshaped by rookies and injuries.
Miles remains a rookie projection with no 2025 baseline anchor.
Dallas defensive profiles are early-season samples and can move quickly.

Minnesota Lynx (MIN)

200.0 min · 90.9 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
Kayla McBride	G	30.4	17.6	2.8	1.7	2.91	4.1	blended · 2G
Olivia Miles	G	30.9	17.0	4.5	5.0	0.50	6.5	2026 only · 2G
Courtney Williams	G	27.8	12.6	6.2	6.8	1.34	1.8	blended · 2G
Natasha Howard	F	22.6	10.4	4.8	2.7	0.13	4.4	blended · 2G
Emma Cechova	F	14.3	9.3	3.0	0.0	0.00	4.7	2026 only · 2G
Nia Coffey	F	24.0	6.0	3.5	0.5	1.00	0.0	2026 only · 2G
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu	F	7.0	4.7	2.0	0.0	0.00	1.3	2026 only · 2G
Eliska Hamzova	G	12.0	4.7	1.3	0.7	0.66	2.0	2026 only · 1G
Maya Caldwell	G	11.4	4.0	3.5	1.0	0.72	0.5	blended · 2G
Liatu King	F	6.6	2.0	2.0	0.0	0.00	2.7	2026 only · 1G
Antonia Delaere	F	10.3	1.3	0.3	1.0	0.00	0.7	2026 only · 2G
Emese Hof	C	2.7	1.3	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Team total		200.0	90.9	33.9	19.4	7.3	28.7

Dallas Wings (DAL)

200.0 min · 78.6 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
Paige Bueckers	G	32.0	15.8	4.2	7.7	0.94	2.2	blended · 2G
Arike Ogunbowale	G	32.8	13.8	1.1	5.7	1.67	2.1	blended · 1G
Maddy Siegrist	F	25.6	11.1	5.1	1.3	0.81	1.1	blended · 2G
Odyssey Sims	G	26.6	9.5	1.3	2.5	0.97	1.2	blended · 2G
Alanna Smith	F	24.4	9.3	7.6	2.3	1.19	0.8	blended · 2G
Aziaha James	G	8.9	4.1	1.6	1.1	0.60	0.4	blended · 2G
Azzi Fudd	G	9.9	3.8	0.3	0.3	0.51	1.0	2026 only · 2G
Jessica Shepard	F	11.0	3.8	3.1	2.4	0.00	0.7	blended · 2G
JJ Quinerly	G	7.8	2.9	2.1	2.1	0.31	0.4	blended · 1G
Alysha Clark	F	5.6	2.3	0.8	0.3	0.25	0.8	2026 only · 2G
Li Yueru	C	7.3	2.2	0.8	0.0	0.20	0.4	blended · 2G
Awak Kuier	F	1.0	0.0	0.5	0.5	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Costanza Verona	G	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Dulcy Fankam Mendjiadeu	F	5.1	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Team total		200.0	78.6	29.0	26.2	7.4	11.1

Defense z-scores (makes allowed)

Positive = team allows above-average makes in that zone

Team	RA	PNR	MR	ATB3	LC3	RC3	FTA
MIN	-0.04	-0.81	-0.23	-0.62	+2.31	-0.56	-1.52
DAL	-0.12	+0.32	-0.93	+1.23	+1.57	+0.78	+1.93

Method: 2025 player baselines blended with 2026 in-season form (1-3 games), adjusted by opponent's per-zone defense z-scores. Minutes normalized to exactly 200 per team — starters capped at 36, bench at 18, per-minute rates preserved. Rookies and new-to-WNBA players carry a "no 2025 baseline" tag — their lines need market priors before they're calibrated.

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

Kayla McBride

30.4

17.6

2.8

1.7

2.91

4.1

blended · 2G

Olivia Miles

30.9

17.0

4.5

5.0

0.50

6.5

2026 only · 2G

Courtney Williams

27.8

12.6

6.2

6.8

1.34

1.8

blended · 2G

Natasha Howard

22.6

10.4

4.8

2.7

0.13

4.4

blended · 2G

Emma Cechova

14.3

9.3

3.0

0.0

0.00

4.7

2026 only · 2G

Nia Coffey

24.0

6.0

3.5

0.5

1.00

0.0

2026 only · 2G

Anastasiia Olairi Kosu

7.0

4.7

2.0

0.0

0.00

1.3

2026 only · 2G

Eliska Hamzova

12.0

4.7

1.3

0.7

0.66

2.0

2026 only · 1G

Maya Caldwell

11.4

4.0

3.5

1.0

0.72

0.5

blended · 2G

Liatu King

6.6

2.0

0.0

0.00

2.7

2026 only · 1G

Antonia Delaere

10.3

1.3

0.3

1.0

0.00

0.7

2026 only · 2G

Emese Hof

2.7

1.3

0.0

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Team total

200.0

90.9

33.9

19.4

7.3

28.7

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

Paige Bueckers

32.0

15.8

4.2

7.7

0.94

2.2

blended · 2G

Arike Ogunbowale

32.8

13.8

1.1

5.7

1.67

2.1

blended · 1G

Maddy Siegrist

25.6

11.1

5.1

1.3

0.81

1.1

blended · 2G

Odyssey Sims

26.6

9.5

1.3

2.5

0.97

1.2

blended · 2G

Alanna Smith

24.4

9.3

7.6

2.3

1.19

0.8

blended · 2G

Aziaha James

8.9

4.1

1.6

1.1

0.60

0.4

blended · 2G

Azzi Fudd

9.9

3.8

0.3

0.51

1.0

2026 only · 2G

Jessica Shepard

11.0

3.8

3.1

2.4

0.00

0.7

blended · 2G

JJ Quinerly

7.8

2.9

2.1

0.31

0.4

blended · 1G

Alysha Clark

5.6

2.3

0.8

0.3

0.25

0.8

2026 only · 2G

Li Yueru

7.3

2.2

0.8

0.0

0.20

0.4

blended · 2G

Awak Kuier

1.0

0.0

0.5

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Costanza Verona

2.0

0.0

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Dulcy Fankam Mendjiadeu

5.1

0.0

0.5

0.0

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Team total

200.0

78.6

29.0

26.2

7.4

11.1

Team

PNR

ATB3

LC3

RC3

FTA

MIN

-0.04

-0.81

-0.23

-0.62

+2.31

-0.56

-1.52

DAL

-0.12

+0.32

-0.93

+1.23

+1.57

+0.78

+1.93