May 15, 2026 · Projected Box Score

Las Vegas Aces @ Connecticut Sun

Friday, May 15 at 7:30 PM EDT

Total165.4

SpreadLV -15.0

LV90.2

CON75.2

Out: Leila Lacan (CON), Nell Angloma (CON), Dana Evans (LV)

LV by 15.0 in a 165.4 total

A'ja Wilson is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Projected box scoreZone defenseRole volatility

Projected total165.4

Model spreadLV -15.0

A'ja Wilson PTS22.9

Jackie Young 3PM1.84

Aneesah Morrow REB8.6

Method note: Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.

Headline Plays

Market-aware where live lines exist; otherwise model watches.

A'ja Wilson points watch

PTS22.9 pts

High model volume

A'ja Wilson owns the top scoring projection in this game at 22.9 points over 29.5 minutes.
Do not treat this as a bet without a live line; use it as the first prop to compare against books.

Jackie Young 3PM watch

3PM1.84 3PM

Model watch

Jackie Young has the highest made-three projection in the matchup.
This becomes actionable only if the live line leaves room below the projection.

Aneesah Morrow rebounds watch

REB8.6 reb

Model watch

Aneesah Morrow leads the game in projected rebounds.
Check lineup news first; early-season frontcourt roles are still volatile.

Chelsea Gray assists watch

AST6.2 ast

Usage check

Chelsea Gray has the clearest playmaking projection in the game.
Assist lines are role-sensitive; verify starting guards and ball-handler usage before playing it.

Matchup Levers

The NCAA dossier pattern: explain what the number means.

LV gives up pick-and-roll makes + mid-range makes

Las Vegas Aces shows positive make z-scores in pick-and-roll makes (+2.69), mid-range makes (+1.07). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.

LV suppresses left-corner 3s

Las Vegas Aces is a negative matchup for left-corner 3s (-1.35). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

CON gives up free-throw volume + rim makes

Connecticut Sun shows positive make z-scores in free-throw volume (+1.56), rim makes (+1.42). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.

CON suppresses mid-range makes

Connecticut Sun is a negative matchup for mid-range makes (-1.85). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

Game Script

How to read the projected box score before checking prices.

Total posture

The projection lands at 165.4, so this is more about player-specific funnels than a blind game-total over.

Side posture

LV grades as the model side by 15.0. Team totals: LV 90.2 and CON 75.2.

Watch List

Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.

Las Vegas Aces (LV)

200.0 min · 90.2 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
A'ja Wilson	C	29.5	22.9	5.0	3.1	0.67	10.1	blended · 3G
Jackie Young	G	29.4	17.2	4.0	5.4	1.84	4.6	blended · 3G
Chelsea Gray	G	29.4	11.0	2.3	6.2	1.69	3.3	blended · 3G
Chennedy Carter	G	15.4	10.4	0.8	1.1	0.28	1.9	2026 only · 3G
Jewell Loyd	G	27.6	9.7	3.9	1.8	1.60	2.3	blended · 3G
NaLyssa Smith	F	21.1	9.1	5.4	1.0	0.13	3.5	blended · 3G
Stephanie Talbot	F	15.8	5.1	1.4	1.1	0.28	0.8	2026 only · 3G
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus	F	7.3	2.3	2.5	0.6	0.00	1.1	2026 only · 3G
Kierstan Bell	F	12.7	1.4	1.7	0.8	0.28	0.0	2026 only · 3G
Brianna Turner	F	11.8	1.1	2.8	0.3	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 3G
Team total		200.0	90.2	29.8	21.4	6.8	27.6

No 2025 baseline available: Janiah Barker

Connecticut Sun (CON)

200.0 min · 75.2 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
Brittney Griner	C	22.1	12.0	4.7	0.9	0.25	1.8	blended · 3G
Diamond Miller	F	22.7	11.7	4.0	1.0	1.00	4.3	2026 only · 3G
Aneesah Morrow	F	20.3	8.9	8.6	0.3	0.61	1.9	blended · 3G
Saniya Rivers	G	25.2	7.3	1.8	4.7	0.56	1.0	blended · 3G
Hailey Van Lith	G	13.2	7.0	1.6	3.1	0.78	0.0	2026 only · 2G
Kennedy Burke	G	23.4	6.8	3.4	3.4	1.02	1.2	blended · 3G
Olivia Nelson-Ododa	C	14.9	5.5	2.6	1.5	0.01	1.6	blended · 3G
Aaliyah Edwards	F	11.2	4.0	2.0	1.1	0.00	1.4	2025 baseline
Gianna Kneepkens	G	9.8	3.6	2.1	1.0	0.52	0.0	2026 only · 3G
Shey Peddy	G	13.3	3.5	2.4	1.3	0.63	0.3	2025 baseline
Charlisse Leger-Walker	G	14.2	2.6	1.0	0.8	0.00	0.8	2026 only · 3G
Raegan Beers	F	9.7	2.3	0.8	0.4	0.39	1.6	2026 only · 2G
Team total		200.0	75.2	35.0	19.5	5.8	15.9

No 2025 baseline available: Ashlon Jackson

Defense z-scores (makes allowed)

Positive = team allows above-average makes in that zone

Team	RA	PNR	MR	ATB3	LC3	RC3	FTA
LV	-0.88	+2.69	+1.07	-0.74	-1.35	-0.95	-0.81
CON	+1.42	-0.87	-1.85	+0.21	-0.25	+0.59	+1.56

Method: 2025 player baselines blended with 2026 in-season form (1-3 games), adjusted by opponent's per-zone defense z-scores. Minutes normalized to exactly 200 per team — starters capped at 36, bench at 18, per-minute rates preserved. Rookies and new-to-WNBA players carry a "no 2025 baseline" tag — their lines need market priors before they're calibrated.

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

A'ja Wilson

29.5

22.9

5.0

3.1

0.67

10.1

blended · 3G

Jackie Young

29.4

17.2

4.0

5.4

1.84

4.6

blended · 3G

Chelsea Gray

29.4

11.0

2.3

6.2

1.69

3.3

blended · 3G

Chennedy Carter

15.4

10.4

0.8

1.1

0.28

1.9

2026 only · 3G

Jewell Loyd

27.6

9.7

3.9

1.8

1.60

2.3

blended · 3G

NaLyssa Smith

21.1

9.1

5.4

1.0

0.13

3.5

blended · 3G

Stephanie Talbot

15.8

5.1

1.4

1.1

0.28

0.8

2026 only · 3G

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus

7.3

2.3

2.5

0.6

0.00

1.1

2026 only · 3G

Kierstan Bell

12.7

1.4

1.7

0.8

0.28

0.0

2026 only · 3G

Brianna Turner

11.8

1.1

2.8

0.3

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 3G

Team total

200.0

90.2

29.8

21.4

6.8

27.6

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

Brittney Griner

22.1

12.0

4.7

0.9

0.25

1.8

blended · 3G

Diamond Miller

22.7

11.7

4.0

1.0

1.00

4.3

2026 only · 3G

Aneesah Morrow

20.3

8.9

8.6

0.3

0.61

1.9

blended · 3G

Saniya Rivers

25.2

7.3

1.8

4.7

0.56

1.0

blended · 3G

Hailey Van Lith

13.2

7.0

1.6

3.1

0.78

0.0

2026 only · 2G

Kennedy Burke

23.4

6.8

3.4

1.02

1.2

blended · 3G

Olivia Nelson-Ododa

14.9

5.5

2.6

1.5

0.01

1.6

blended · 3G

Aaliyah Edwards

11.2

4.0

2.0

1.1

0.00

1.4

2025 baseline

Gianna Kneepkens

9.8

3.6

2.1

1.0

0.52

0.0

2026 only · 3G

Shey Peddy

13.3

3.5

2.4

1.3

0.63

0.3

2025 baseline

Charlisse Leger-Walker

14.2

2.6

1.0

0.8

0.00

0.8

2026 only · 3G

Raegan Beers

9.7

2.3

0.8

0.4

0.39

1.6

2026 only · 2G

Team total

200.0

75.2

35.0

19.5

5.8

15.9

Team

PNR

ATB3

LC3

RC3

FTA

-0.88

+2.69

+1.07

-0.74

-1.35

-0.95

-0.81

CON

+1.42

-0.87

-1.85

+0.21

-0.25

+0.59

+1.56