May 13, 2026 · Projected Box Score

Indiana Fever @ Los Angeles Sparks

Wednesday, May 13 at 10:30 PM EDT

Total199.4

SpreadIND -7.2

IND103.3

LA96.1

Indiana-LA is the slate's cleanest pace and points writeup.

This is the loudest projection on the board: 199.4 total, Indiana at 103.3 points, and both backcourts carrying clean scoring paths. The Indiana side is built on LA's above-break three leakage; the LA side is built on rim pressure and Indiana's foul-rate profile.

Slate-high totalIND 3PM spikeLA rim pressureInflation risk

Projected total199.4

IND projected pts103.3

IND projected 3PM13.3

LA ATB3 makes z+2.18

LA projected FTA26.4

Method note: Curated from the refreshed WNBA projection payload, ESPN source snapshots, and the 2026 expansion-prior defense profiles.

Headline Plays

Market-aware where live lines exist; otherwise model watches.

Kelsey Mitchell PTS watch

PTS24.1 pts

3-star model watch

Mitchell owns the top scoring projection on the slate and LA's defense is the biggest above-break-three boost in the file.
Her 3.48 made-three projection makes the points line viable even if free throws do not carry the bet.

Kelsey Mitchell 3PM watch

3PM3.48 3PM

3PT funnel

LA allows above-break makes at +2.18 z and Indiana projects for 13.3 threes as a team.
This remains price-sensitive if the market pushes the line to 3.5.

Caitlin Clark 3PM / PTS watch

3PM / PTS18.9 pts, 3.11 3PM

Stackable lean

Clark gets the same above-break-three matchup as Mitchell and still projects for 7.3 assists.
The cleaner entry is usually 3PM first, then points if books do not fully tax the game environment.

Kelsey Plum PTS watch

PTS20.0 pts

LA counter

Indiana allows rim makes and free-throw volume, and Plum is the top LA scoring projection.
This is thinner than the Indiana perimeter plays because Indiana suppresses threes across the profile.

Fades and Passes

Where the projection disagrees with likely market enthusiasm.

Low Indiana team-total assumptions

Team total103.3 pts

Pass/fade low numbers

The model is far above a normal team environment for Indiana.
If the market opens with stale season-average assumptions, the matchup math says do not underprice Indiana's scoring.

Matchup Levers

The NCAA dossier pattern: explain what the number means.

LA gives up above-break threes

LA's ATB3 made-three z-score is +2.18. That is the core reason Mitchell and Clark sit at the top of the play board.

Indiana still lets LA score inside

Indiana is positive on rim makes (+0.73) and FTA (+0.69). Plum, Hamby, and Ogwumike all have paths if LA keeps pace.

Free throws are not Indiana's best path

LA's defense suppresses FTA at -0.97 z, so Indiana overs should lean on shooting volume more than whistle assumptions.

Game Script

How to read the projected box score before checking prices.

Total posture

Strongest over-screen on the slate before price. The 199.4 projection is extreme, but it is supported by Indiana's perimeter volume and LA's efficient top-end scorers.

Side posture

Model has Indiana by 7.2 with Indiana at 103.3 and LA at 96.1. If the spread is tighter than that, the model side is Indiana.

Watch List

Check whether Mitchell or Clark 3PM lines move from 2.5 to 3.5.
Confirm LA's starting backcourt before treating Plum's usage as stable.
Do not stack too many Indiana overs if the market total already reflects a track meet.

Caveats

This is an extreme total, so projection inflation risk is real.
LA suppresses free throws overall; Indiana scoring should be perimeter-led.
Early 2026 team defense samples are still small and include expansion-prior context.

Indiana Fever (IND)

200.0 min · 103.3 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
Kelsey Mitchell	G	29.8	24.1	3.2	3.8	3.48	2.9	blended · 2G
Caitlin Clark	G	29.2	18.9	4.7	7.3	3.11	2.6	blended · 2G
Aliyah Boston	C	27.7	15.6	3.9	6.9	0.31	2.2	blended · 2G
Sophie Cunningham	G	24.0	9.9	3.2	3.8	2.19	1.1	blended · 2G
Lexie Hull	G	25.8	7.3	1.7	0.0	1.45	0.6	blended · 1G
Damiris Dantas	C	9.6	6.2	1.6	1.1	1.34	0.5	2026 only · 2G
Makayla Timpson	F	11.5	6.2	1.9	0.3	0.00	1.3	2026 only · 2G
Monique Billings	F	9.1	4.4	3.1	0.0	0.37	0.7	blended · 1G
Myisha Hines-Allen	F	11.3	4.0	3.5	1.0	0.24	0.7	blended · 2G
Raven Johnson	G	7.5	3.5	2.4	0.8	0.27	1.1	2026 only · 2G
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough	G	10.2	2.7	2.1	0.0	0.54	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Tyasha Harris	G	4.3	0.5	0.0	0.3	0.00	0.5	2026 only · 2G
Team total		200.0	103.3	31.3	25.3	13.3	14.2

No 2025 baseline available: Justine Pissott

Los Angeles Sparks (LA)

200.0 min · 96.1 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
Kelsey Plum	G	33.4	20.0	3.1	3.8	2.10	6.5	blended · 2G
Dearica Hamby	F	29.6	19.2	5.8	1.9	0.20	6.1	blended · 2G
Nneka Ogwumike	F	30.0	18.4	7.9	4.0	1.47	3.1	blended · 2G
Ariel Atkins	G	27.7	11.2	3.4	3.4	0.87	3.2	blended · 2G
Erica Wheeler	G	23.4	8.2	0.8	2.4	1.30	1.3	blended · 2G
Rae Burrell	G	11.4	4.3	1.2	0.2	0.35	1.2	blended · 2G
Kate Martin	G	9.4	3.2	1.7	0.9	0.59	0.6	2025 baseline
Ta'Niya Latson	G	5.6	2.6	0.6	0.6	0.00	1.8	2026 only · 2G
Cameron Brink	F	7.2	2.4	2.5	0.0	0.18	0.8	blended · 2G
Sania Feagin	F	3.8	2.4	0.9	0.0	0.00	1.2	2026 only · 2G
Chance Gray	G	6.2	1.8	0.9	0.6	0.29	0.6	2026 only · 2G
Emma Cannon	F	2.9	1.8	0.3	0.3	0.59	0.0	2026 only · 2G
Jihyun Park	F	3.5	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 2G
Laura Ziegler	F	5.9	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Team total		200.0	96.1	30.3	18.1	7.9	26.4

Defense z-scores (makes allowed)

Positive = team allows above-average makes in that zone

Team	RA	PNR	MR	ATB3	LC3	RC3	FTA
IND	+0.73	+0.15	-0.55	-0.94	-0.62	-0.95	+0.69
LA	+0.91	-0.73	+0.04	+2.18	+0.66	-1.14	-0.97

Method: 2025 player baselines blended with 2026 in-season form (1-3 games), adjusted by opponent's per-zone defense z-scores. Minutes normalized to exactly 200 per team — starters capped at 36, bench at 18, per-minute rates preserved. Rookies and new-to-WNBA players carry a "no 2025 baseline" tag — their lines need market priors before they're calibrated.

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

Kelsey Mitchell

29.8

24.1

3.2

3.8

3.48

2.9

blended · 2G

Caitlin Clark

29.2

18.9

4.7

7.3

3.11

2.6

blended · 2G

Aliyah Boston

27.7

15.6

3.9

6.9

0.31

2.2

blended · 2G

Sophie Cunningham

24.0

9.9

3.2

3.8

2.19

1.1

blended · 2G

Lexie Hull

25.8

7.3

1.7

0.0

1.45

0.6

blended · 1G

Damiris Dantas

9.6

6.2

1.6

1.1

1.34

0.5

2026 only · 2G

Makayla Timpson

11.5

6.2

1.9

0.3

0.00

1.3

2026 only · 2G

Monique Billings

9.1

4.4

3.1

0.0

0.37

0.7

blended · 1G

Myisha Hines-Allen

11.3

4.0

3.5

1.0

0.24

0.7

blended · 2G

Raven Johnson

7.5

3.5

2.4

0.8

0.27

1.1

2026 only · 2G

Shatori Walker-Kimbrough

10.2

2.7

2.1

0.0

0.54

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Tyasha Harris

4.3

0.5

0.0

0.3

0.00

0.5

2026 only · 2G

Team total

200.0

103.3

31.3

25.3

13.3

14.2

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

Kelsey Plum

33.4

20.0

3.1

3.8

2.10

6.5

blended · 2G

Dearica Hamby

29.6

19.2

5.8

1.9

0.20

6.1

blended · 2G

Nneka Ogwumike

30.0

18.4

7.9

4.0

1.47

3.1

blended · 2G

Ariel Atkins

27.7

11.2

3.4

0.87

3.2

blended · 2G

Erica Wheeler

23.4

8.2

0.8

2.4

1.30

1.3

blended · 2G

Rae Burrell

11.4

4.3

1.2

0.2

0.35

1.2

blended · 2G

Kate Martin

9.4

3.2

1.7

0.9

0.59

0.6

2025 baseline

Ta'Niya Latson

5.6

2.6

0.6

0.00

1.8

2026 only · 2G

Cameron Brink

7.2

2.4

2.5

0.0

0.18

0.8

blended · 2G

Sania Feagin

3.8

2.4

0.9

0.0

0.00

1.2

2026 only · 2G

Chance Gray

6.2

1.8

0.9

0.6

0.29

0.6

2026 only · 2G

Emma Cannon

2.9

1.8

0.3

0.59

0.0

2026 only · 2G

Jihyun Park

3.5

0.6

0.0

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 2G

Laura Ziegler

5.9

0.0

0.6

0.0

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Team total

200.0

96.1

30.3

18.1

7.9

26.4

Team

PNR

ATB3

LC3

RC3

FTA

IND

+0.73

+0.15

-0.55

-0.94

-0.62

-0.95

+0.69

+0.91

-0.73

+0.04

+2.18

+0.66

-1.14

-0.97