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May 13, 2026 · Projected Box Score

Chicago Sky @ Golden State Valkyries

Wednesday, May 13 at 10:00 PM EDT

Total163.1
SpreadGS -18.9
CHI72.1
GS91.0
Out: Iliana Rupert (GS), Juste Jocyte (GS), DiJonai Carrington (CHI), Courtney Vandersloot (CHI)

Golden State's team environment is strong, but the blowout risk is real.

Golden State projects for 91.0 points and 12.8 made threes against a Chicago defense that bleeds right-corner and above-break makes. The main warning is the model spread: GS by 18.9 can shorten fourth-quarter minutes.

GS team totalChicago 3PT funnelBlowout riskRim suppression
GS projected pts91.0
GS projected 3PM12.8
Projected marginGS -18.9
CHI RC3 makes z+2.32
GS rim makes z-2.72
Method note: Curated from the refreshed WNBA projection payload, ESPN source snapshots, and 2026 defense profiles.

Headline Plays

Market-aware where live lines exist; otherwise model watches.
1

Golden State team total watch

Team total91.0 pts
Team-first
  • Chicago's defense creates the best matchup case on the GS side, but the blowout risk makes team exposure cleaner than multiple player overs.
  • The Valkyries project for 12.8 threes.
2

Kayla Thornton PTS / 3PM lean

PTS / 3PM15.2 pts, 2.41 3PM
Perimeter fit
  • Thornton maps directly to Chicago's right-corner and above-break concessions.
  • Her player overs are less attractive if the spread implies reduced closing minutes.
3

Janelle Salaun PTS / 3PM lean

PTS / 3PM14.6 pts, 2.64 3PM
Shooting fit
  • Salaun has the highest GS made-three projection in this game.
  • The matchup supports the archetype, but line shopping matters if books inflate the 3PM number.
4

Veronica Burton AST / PTS watch

AST / PTS13.3 pts, 8.5 ast
Role edge
  • Burton owns the clearest playmaking projection and benefits if GS shooters convert the matchup.
  • Assists are cleaner than points if the team shooting thesis is the primary bet.

Fades and Passes

Where the projection disagrees with likely market enthusiasm.
1

Chicago rim-scoring overs

PTSCHI 72.1 team pts
Fade if priced normal
  • Golden State suppresses rim makes at -2.72 z.
  • Chicago needs perimeter efficiency or garbage-time volume to beat its team projection.
2

Chicago full-game overs if spread climbs

PTS / team total72.1 team pts
Game-script fade
  • The model has GS by 18.9.
  • If the market agrees on a lopsided script, Chicago overs need discounted lines.

Matchup Levers

The NCAA dossier pattern: explain what the number means.

Chicago gives up perimeter makes

CHI is +2.32 on right-corner makes and +0.98 on above-break makes. Thornton and Salaun are the cleanest GS fits.

Golden State blocks the rim

GS is -2.72 on rim makes, which pushes Chicago away from easy interior scoring.

Margin creates minutes risk

A projected 18.9-point margin is good for the GS side but bad for late player-prop volume.

Game Script

How to read the projected box score before checking prices.

Total posture

The projected total is 163.1, so this is a Golden State team/player environment rather than a full-game over.

Side posture

Golden State projects 91.0 to Chicago's 72.1. Team total and selected shooter props are cleaner than broad game stacking.

Watch List

  • Downgrade GS player overs if the spread climbs and minutes become fragile.
  • Check Thornton and Salaun 3PM lines before betting obvious matchup boosts.
  • Avoid Chicago interior overs unless the line is materially discounted.

Caveats

  • Blowout risk is the main sidecar warning.
  • Golden State is still an expansion-context team, so priors can move quickly.
  • Chicago's defensive profile is noisy this early in the season.

Chicago Sky (CHI)

200.0 min · 72.1 pts projected
PlayerPosMinPtsRebAst3PMFTASource
Skylar DigginsG31.415.110.56.71.704.3blended · 1G
Rickea JacksonF31.413.26.12.61.892.5blended · 1G
Azura StevensF27.510.25.02.81.862.12025 baseline
Gabriela JaquezG32.010.07.02.01.004.02026 only · 1G
Natasha CloudG28.28.65.12.81.421.62025 baseline
Kamilla CardosoC12.74.67.10.50.011.5blended · 1G
Rachel BanhamG11.04.10.01.40.990.6blended · 1G
Jacy SheldonG11.53.31.41.40.630.4blended · 1G
Elizabeth WilliamsC9.63.00.71.30.000.8blended · 1G
Aicha CoulibalyG2.80.00.90.50.000.02026 only · 1G
Sydney TaylorG1.90.00.00.00.000.02026 only · 1G
Team total200.072.143.822.09.517.8
No 2025 baseline available: Maddy Westbeld

Golden State Valkyries (GS)

200.0 min · 91.0 pts projected
PlayerPosMinPtsRebAst3PMFTASource
Kayla ThorntonF30.215.25.40.52.414.3blended · 2G
Janelle SalaunF26.914.62.51.52.642.0blended · 2G
Veronica BurtonG29.813.32.48.51.695.0blended · 2G
Gabby WilliamsF31.013.06.13.91.661.9blended · 2G
Tiffany HayesG24.611.30.06.21.643.2blended · 1G
Cecilia ZandalasiniF14.08.04.02.01.491.1blended · 1G
Kaitlyn ChenG7.95.11.31.30.640.62026 only · 2G
Kaila CharlesG12.14.42.40.70.601.1blended · 2G
Laeticia AmihereF9.33.92.31.40.071.7blended · 2G
Kiah StokesC11.72.22.21.00.000.62026 only · 2G
Miela SowahG1.90.00.00.00.000.02026 only · 1G
Ndjakalenga MwenentandaG0.60.00.00.00.000.02026 only · 1G
Team total200.091.028.627.012.821.5
No 2025 baseline available: Ashten Prechtel

Defense z-scores (makes allowed)

Positive = team allows above-average makes in that zone
TeamRAPNRMRATB3LC3RC3FTA
CHI+0.67-1.63+0.90+0.98+0.48+2.32+0.48
GS-2.72+0.88-0.55+0.68+0.11+0.21-0.09
Method: 2025 player baselines blended with 2026 in-season form (1-3 games), adjusted by opponent's per-zone defense z-scores. Minutes normalized to exactly 200 per team — starters capped at 36, bench at 18, per-minute rates preserved. Rookies and new-to-WNBA players carry a "no 2025 baseline" tag — their lines need market priors before they're calibrated.