Win card0-3Locke or bust
Locke or bust. Everything else is scaffolding.
Locke gets hot, Macdonald scares teams out of the paint, game gets ugly
Win condition
Three-heavy, low free throws, one real scorer, one real rim protector
§ Box
Projected box score
Key assumptions
- Locke held under 20 by Benson top-lock + chase scheme.
- Burton attacks Macdonald off ball screens — foul trouble likely by H2.
- Bulldogs stay under 12 turnovers against BSJ's help-off defense.
- Mueller out for season — projection plans without him; Plumlee is the sole stretch five.
§ Defense
What Banana Slugs give up
PPG allowed67.3
FG% allowed39.4%
2P% allowed45.1%
3P% allowed29.2%
3PM allowed7.0
REB allowed39.7
AST allowed11.7
FTA allowed16.3
TO forced8.0
Most FTA allowed in this sample· 16.3 per game2nd-fewest turnovers forced· 8.0 per game
Our attack theme
Attack downhill. They allow the most free throws in this opponent set at 16.3 per game, give up 39.7 rebounds, and force only 8.0 turnovers. For Bulldogs, this should be a Burton, Plumlee, Benson pressure game first, perimeter game second.
Bottom lineRim pressure, foul pressure, boards.
Per-game averages allowed, derived from 3 games per team in the uploaded league box scores. Small sample — real signal, still small.
§ Exploit
Bulldogs exploit sheet
Weakness to forceFree throws, boards, and low turnover pressure. BSJ allows 16.3 FTA, 39.7 rebounds, and forces only 8.0 turnovers per game.
This should be a Burton pressure game first. Macdonald is their one real rim deterrent, but BSJ's overall profile says attack downhill, get to the line, and own the glass. Benson is the guy who should create the crack. Burton is the guy who should cash it. Attila should live in the weak-side punish space because BSJ has multiple help-off defenders.
First 3 actions to call
- 1Empty-side Benson-Burton high PnR at Macdonald
- 2Plumlee-Burton re-screen PnR on the next trip if Macdonald sits back
- 3Attila drift corner behind roll help after the first paint touch
Shot dietDrive first, spray second.
Staff cardBurton first. Benson bends it. Attila punishes help. Call: high PnR, re-screen, drift corner.
§ Shot diet
Target shot diet — Drive-to-kick
Mark Plumlee
Primary shooter
Most designed 3PA should land with Plumlee and Attila off Benson creation, then Benson as the second-touch shooter. BSJ allows only 7.0 made threes per game, and Macdonald is their one consistent rim deterrent despite finishing at 25% on 2s himself. This should be an inside-out game, not an early-clock bombing contest.
Nobody else shoots deep unless the look is elite.
What actually beats Bulldogs here
- Locke gets a free rhythm game
- Bulldogs turn it into a loose three-point contest
- Macdonald blocks enough early looks to change the offense
If none of those happen, Bulldogs should control the game. This is not a game Bulldogs should lose by accident. It only becomes dangerous if Bulldogs let BSJ play its preferred variance style.
§ Read
Matchup read in plain language
BSJ does not have enough balanced offense to beat Bulldogs cleanly. The danger is not their structure. The danger is one scorer catching fire and the game turning sloppy. Bulldogs should aim to make every non-Locke possession feel like work. If the ball starts swinging to Simpson, Pahl, Sweet, or a pressured Boyd/Withers, the defense has won the possession already.
§ Playbook
From the Bulldogs playbook
§ Cross-matches
Starting cross-matches
- Benson on Locke
- Burton on Macdonald
- Plumlee on Boyd or Withers, depending on who starts
- Attila on Simpson
- D. O'Reilly on the bigger secondary body
§ Coverage
What to deny · What to dare
What to deny
- Locke catches above the break
- Locke trail threes
- Easy DHO or pin-down rhythm into Locke pull-up threes
- Macdonald set at the rim on first-touch paint attacks
- Any possession where Locke gets to shoot the first clean look without changing sides of the floor
What to dare
- Simpson jumpers
- Pahl volume
- Sweet finishing over a set body
- Boyd tough pull-ups, until he proves he has a real scoring night
- Macdonald jumpers from 15 feet and out
- Withers making multiple decisions under pressure instead of catching and playing simple
§ First five
First five priorities
First five — offense
- 1Bring Macdonald into the first screen of the game
- 2Get one early rim run for Burton
- 3Make Locke guard an action, not stand in the corner and rest
- 4Touch the paint before the first non-transition three
- 5Push after every Locke miss
First five — defense
- 1Top-lock Locke immediately
- 2Help from the top, never from the strong-side corner
- 3Sit in the gaps on Simpson and Sweet
- 4End the possession with the rebound
- 5Do not foul bailout shooters
§ Script
Scripted first five possessions
- 1Empty-side Benson and Burton pick-and-roll with Macdonald involved
- 2Plumlee off a pin-down into catch and attack
- 3Attila DHO with Burton slip, forcing Macdonald to choose
- 4Benson reject screen if Locke top-locks badly on the other end and is off-balance in transition defense
- 5Burton seal if BSJ scrambles after early paint pressure
§ Why
Why those first actions matter
The point of the opening script is to make Macdonald move, make Locke defend, and force BSJ to play connected defense. They do not have enough trustworthy defenders to solve repeated actions if Bulldogs stay disciplined. If Bulldogs score early in the paint, the rest of the offense opens naturally.
§ Bench
Bench and rotation notes
- First frontcourt sub should be Morrison if Burton gets one early foul or if the glass is loose
- Smith is useful if available because BSJ cannot match multiple live scorers
- Do not overplay small lineups just because BSJ shoots a lot of threes. Their shooting quality is still poor outside Locke
- If Withers is active and looks comfortable, be quicker to pressure his handle than to switch Benson off Locke
§ Scout
Opponent personnel & directives
Identity: Locke or Bust
Jeffrey Locke = 70 of their season pts = 41% of team scoring. KJ disrupted him in Apr 16, BSJ scored 47 total. Pattern: defenses that disrupt Locke's rhythm hold BSJ under 55.
Pre-Tip Checklist — Apr 23
Mueller ruled out for the season — plan around his absence, not for his return. Confirm Smith availability. Walk through Locke top-lock with wings. Define trap rules on ball screens (trap or ICE?). Identify transition triggers (any Locke miss = sprint). Foul budget set: Burton 3 by half.
23.3 PPG · 53% FG · 56% 3P · BEST 3PT SHOOTER IN LEAGUE
🔒 TOP-LOCK off every catch. Never concede a run-out. Help from the top, never from the corner. Benson guards primary.
10 PPG · 29% FG · 17 pts vs KJ, 3 pts on 1/12 vs FFLT
D. O'Reilly or Morrison. Do not help off Locke.
7 PPG · 3.5 BPG · 8.5 RPG · 25% on 2P attempts
Run ball-screens to drag him away from the rim. Benson pull-ups. Attila DHO slips. Let him shoot from 15+.
5.7 PPG · 26% FG · 7.3 RPG
§ Halftime
Halftime trigger tree
If Locke has 15 plus
- Go from top-lock plus chase to full denial
- Force somebody else to bring it up
- Send a second body sooner on handoffs
- Make every touch of his start farther from the arc
If Macdonald has two fouls
If Boyd is their second scorer
If Bulldogs are up but the game feels messy
§ Late
End-of-half and late-game details
If the last two minutes of a half become foul-heavy, do not let the ball find the wrong hands by default. Make BSJ guard action, then get to Burton or the best available foul-line option. On the other end, if the score is tight, strategic fouling is live against everyone except Locke.
§ Close
If ahead · If behind or tied
If ahead
- Keep the ball out of Plumlee and D. O'Reilly as primary foul release options
- Make BSJ defend action, then hit Burton (Mueller out for season)
- No quick-clock threes unless it is a true layup-level catch
If behind or tied
- Foul anyone except Locke if the math calls for it
- Do not gift Locke a two-possession swing with and-one chances
- Make the game physical for their weaker creators
§ Dossier
Shorthand game plan — original dossier notes
When we have the ball
- Rim pressure first — attack Macdonald off the bounce, not in post.
- Pace up — 80+ possessions. They can't score without Locke in transition.
- Benson + Plumlee + Attila triple-threat ball screens.
- Burton dives on every PnR action — Macdonald bites on Locke help scheme.
- Mid-range efficiency — sub-22 three-point attempts.
When they have the ball
- Lock Locke — top-lock all catches. Force ball out of his hands.
- Pack the paint vs drivers — other scorers are poor 3PT shooters.
- Pressure above the arc — BSJ can be sped up.
- Burton shades off Sweet — help rim, rebound.
- Attila harasses Simpson (0-for-9 from 3 in one game).
Keys to win
- Deny Locke catches; top-lock at the arc.
- Pace up to 80+ possessions.
- Attack Macdonald off ball screens, not in post.
- Rebound discipline on their misses.
- Don't foul — 46% FT team.
One-sentence bench message
Take Locke's air away, drag Macdonald into space, and this game should break in our direction.