Arkansas State Red Wolves at Southern Miss Golden Eagles college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 17
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Southern Miss home
- M. M. Roberts Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 13 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Arkansas State visits Southern Miss in Week 7.
Arkansas State travels to Southern Miss at M. M. Roberts Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 13 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Kenyon Clay (ARST), Chauncy Cobb (ARST), and Grant Page (USM).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
13 player distributions are available, led by Kenyon Clay (ARST).
Venue context
Southern Miss is the designated home team at M. M. Roberts Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:09+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:09+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Arkansas State pass protection vs Southern Miss pass rush
Arkansas State's pass protection graded 70.0 in 2025 (35th of 136); Southern Miss's pass rush graded 70.2 (14th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Southern Miss's pass rush. Southern Miss's pass rush returns only 2.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Southern Miss pass protection vs Arkansas State pass rush
Southern Miss's pass protection graded 67.8 in 2025 (53rd of 136); Arkansas State's pass rush graded 66.2 (59th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Arkansas State receiving corps vs Southern Miss coverage
Arkansas State's receiving corps graded 63.6 in 2025 (80th of 136); Southern Miss's coverage graded 71.9 (8th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Southern Miss's coverage. Southern Miss's coverage returns only 7.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Southern Miss receiving corps vs Arkansas State coverage
Southern Miss's receiving corps graded 65.4 in 2025 (58th of 136); Arkansas State's coverage graded 61.4 (103rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Southern Miss's receiving corps. Southern Miss's receiving corps returns only 7.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Arkansas State rush offense vs Southern Miss run defense
Arkansas State's rush offense graded 71.4 in 2025 (109th of 136); Southern Miss's run defense graded 71.7 (19th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Southern Miss's run defense. Southern Miss's run defense returns only 5.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Southern Miss rush offense vs Arkansas State run defense
Southern Miss's rush offense graded 72.1 in 2025 (103rd of 136); Arkansas State's run defense graded 64.7 (104th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Arkansas State
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyon ClayELITE · Tier 5 | RB | 12.83.9–20.4 | — | 5014–73 | 2.20.9–3.6 | 190–24 |
| Chauncy CobbVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 11.13.7–18.0 | — | — | 4.31.0–6.5 | 5318–76 |
| Devin SpencerVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.63.1–14.5 | — | 4111–66 | 1.80.0–3.3 | 140–18 |
| Hunter SummersELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 9.43.0–14.6 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.0 | 4114–62 |
| Jaylen Bonellibalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 7.02.1–11.4 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 309–41 |
| Tyler LittleHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 6.81.8–11.5 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.6 | 288–38 |
Southern Miss
7 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant PageHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 10.63.3–16.3 | — | — | 3.81.1–6.1 | 4213–62 |
| Landry Lyddybalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 10.12.1–19.9 | 17656–235 | — | — | — |
| Ethan HamptonELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 8.81.5–15.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Davis Daltonbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 7.42.5–11.6 | — | — | — | 339–49 |
| Robert BriggsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 7.01.8–11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Kaden Saundersbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 5.91.8–10.0 | — | — | — | — |
| Brandon HoodELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.51.5–10.9 | — | — | — | — |
Arkansas State
- Rush yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 2.2
- Rec yds
- 19
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 53
- Rush yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 1.8
- Rec yds
- 14
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 28
Southern Miss
- Receptions
- 3.8
- Rec yds
- 42
- Pass yds
- 176
- Rec yds
- 33
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyon ClayRB · ARST | Rushing yards | 49.9 | 44.2 | 14.0–72.6 | Shop the line |
| Chauncy CobbWR · ARST | Receiving yards | 53.4 | 41.3 | 18.1–76.0 | Shop the line |
| Grant PageWR · USM | Receiving yards | 42.2 | 34.1 | 13.3–62.1 | Shop the line |
| Landry LyddyQB · USM | Passing yards | 175.5 | 193.2 | 56.3–234.5 | Shop the line |
| Devin SpencerRB · ARST | Rushing yards | 41.1 | 37.2 | 10.9–65.5 | Shop the line |
| Hunter SummersWR · ARST | Receiving yards | 41.4 | 32.5 | 13.9–62.1 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 49.9
- Median
- 44.2
- 20th–80th
- 14.0–72.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 53.4
- Median
- 41.3
- 20th–80th
- 18.1–76.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 42.2
- Median
- 34.1
- 20th–80th
- 13.3–62.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 175.5
- Median
- 193.2
- 20th–80th
- 56.3–234.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 41.1
- Median
- 37.2
- 20th–80th
- 10.9–65.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 41.4
- Median
- 32.5
- 20th–80th
- 13.9–62.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated