Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 3
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Louisiana home
- Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 12 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Arkansas State visits Louisiana in Week 5.
Arkansas State travels to Louisiana at Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 12 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Lunch Winfield (UL), Kenyon Clay (ARST), and Shelton Sampson Jr. (UL).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
12 player distributions are available, led by Lunch Winfield (UL).
Venue context
Louisiana is the designated home team at Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:03+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Arkansas State pass protection vs Louisiana pass rush
Arkansas State's pass protection graded 70.0 in 2025 (35th of 136); Louisiana's pass rush graded 63.0 (97th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Arkansas State's pass protection.
Louisiana pass protection vs Arkansas State pass rush
Louisiana's pass protection graded 60.8 in 2025 (102nd of 136); Arkansas State's pass rush graded 66.2 (59th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Arkansas State's pass rush. Arkansas State's pass rush returns only 10.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Arkansas State receiving corps vs Louisiana coverage
Arkansas State's receiving corps graded 63.6 in 2025 (80th of 136); Louisiana's coverage graded 62.1 (96th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Arkansas State's receiving corps.
Louisiana receiving corps vs Arkansas State coverage
Louisiana's receiving corps graded 57.9 in 2025 (134th of 136); Arkansas State's coverage graded 61.4 (103rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Arkansas State's coverage.
Arkansas State rush offense vs Louisiana run defense
Arkansas State's rush offense graded 71.4 in 2025 (109th of 136); Louisiana's run defense graded 64.5 (106th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Louisiana rush offense vs Arkansas State run defense
Louisiana's rush offense graded 76.6 in 2025 (55th of 136); Arkansas State's run defense graded 64.7 (104th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Louisiana's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Arkansas State
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyon ClayELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 12.83.9–20.4 | — | 5014–73 | 2.20.9–3.6 | 190–24 |
| Chauncy CobbVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 11.13.7–18.0 | — | — | 4.31.0–6.5 | 5318–76 |
| Devin SpencerVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.63.1–14.5 | — | 4111–66 | 1.80.0–3.3 | 140–18 |
| Hunter SummersELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 9.43.0–14.6 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.0 | 4114–62 |
| Jaylen Bonellibalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 7.02.1–11.4 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 309–41 |
| Tyler LittleVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 6.81.8–11.5 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.6 | 288–38 |
Louisiana
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lunch WinfieldHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | QB | 17.35.9–27.7 | 16594–234 | 4910–69 | — | — |
| Shelton Sampson Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | WR | 12.63.9–20.4 | — | — | 4.01.0–6.0 | 5116–83 |
| Caden Jensenbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 9.12.8–14.1 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.0 | 4011–57 |
| Brock ChappellSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 6.41.9–10.6 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.8 | 308–42 |
| Landon Strotherbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.32.0–10.5 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.8 | 307–45 |
| Steven BlancoVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.21.1–10.7 | — | — | — | — |
Arkansas State
- Rush yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 2.2
- Rec yds
- 19
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 53
- Rush yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 1.8
- Rec yds
- 14
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 28
Louisiana
- Pass yds
- 165
- Rush yds
- 49
- Receptions
- 4.0
- Rec yds
- 51
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 30
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lunch WinfieldQB · UL | Passing yards | 164.8 | 160.4 | 94.4–234.1 | Shop the line |
| Kenyon ClayRB · ARST | Rushing yards | 49.9 | 44.2 | 14.0–72.6 | Shop the line |
| Shelton Sampson Jr.WR · UL | Receiving yards | 51.2 | 40.9 | 16.3–83.0 | Shop the line |
| Chauncy CobbWR · ARST | Receiving yards | 53.4 | 41.3 | 18.1–76.0 | Shop the line |
| Devin SpencerRB · ARST | Rushing yards | 41.1 | 37.2 | 10.9–65.5 | Shop the line |
| Hunter SummersWR · ARST | Receiving yards | 41.4 | 32.5 | 13.9–62.1 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 164.8
- Median
- 160.4
- 20th–80th
- 94.4–234.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 49.9
- Median
- 44.2
- 20th–80th
- 14.0–72.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 51.2
- Median
- 40.9
- 20th–80th
- 16.3–83.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 53.4
- Median
- 41.3
- 20th–80th
- 18.1–76.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 41.1
- Median
- 37.2
- 20th–80th
- 10.9–65.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 41.4
- Median
- 32.5
- 20th–80th
- 13.9–62.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated