App State Mountaineers at NC State Wolfpack college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 26
- Time TBA
- Venue
- NC State home
- Carter-Finley Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 18 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
App State visits NC State in Week 4.
App State travels to NC State at Carter-Finley Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 18 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to CJ Bailey (NCSU), Jaquari Lewis (APP), and Victor Snow (NCSU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
18 player distributions are available, led by CJ Bailey (NCSU).
Venue context
NC State is the designated home team at Carter-Finley Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
App State pass protection vs NC State pass rush
App State's pass protection graded 59.8 in 2025 (106th of 136); NC State's pass rush graded 65.5 (68th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for NC State's pass rush. NC State's pass rush returns only 21.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
NC State pass protection vs App State pass rush
NC State's pass protection graded 67.2 in 2025 (60th of 136); App State's pass rush graded 70.7 (11th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for App State's pass rush.
App State receiving corps vs NC State coverage
App State's receiving corps graded 63.4 in 2025 (84th of 136); NC State's coverage graded 59.3 (116th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for App State's receiving corps. App State's receiving corps returns only 18.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
NC State receiving corps vs App State coverage
NC State's receiving corps graded 69.0 in 2025 (14th of 136); App State's coverage graded 62.1 (95th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for NC State's receiving corps.
App State rush offense vs NC State run defense
App State's rush offense graded 76.8 in 2025 (54th of 136); NC State's run defense graded 65.9 (81st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for App State's rush offense.
NC State rush offense vs App State run defense
NC State's rush offense graded 77.9 in 2025 (43rd of 136); App State's run defense graded 70.9 (29th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
App State
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaquari Lewisbalanced · Tier 5 | RB | 16.46.0–23.4 | — | 6821–104 | 2.20.9–4.1 | 190–32 |
| Izayah CummingsELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 10.43.3–16.2 | — | — | 3.61.0–5.6 | 4415–64 |
| David Larkinsbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 10.23.2–15.3 | — | — | 3.21.0–4.9 | 3711–54 |
| Rashod DubinionELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.82.7–14.7 | — | 379–64 | — | — |
| Kanye Robertsbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 9.22.4–14.1 | — | 4511–67 | — | — |
| Sam MbakeELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 9.53.1–15.7 | — | — | 3.81.0–5.7 | 3913–56 |
| Dalton StromanVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.52.6–13.2 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.4 | 3811–57 |
| Alex SanchezSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 6.21.9–9.9 | — | — | — | 277–36 |
| William Fowlesbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.01.7–9.9 | — | — | — | 267–34 |
NC State
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ BaileySAFE FLOOR · Tier 4 | QB | 17.47.2–26.9 | 203106–252 | 280–50 | — | — |
| Victor SnowHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 14.04.4–21.5 | — | — | 4.41.1–6.5 | 5717–82 |
| Tad Hudsonbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 10.23.0–19.4 | 15222–244 | — | — | — |
| Will WilsonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 10.03.0–16.4 | — | 358–57 | — | — |
| Davion GauseELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.02.4–14.2 | — | 274–39 | 1.70.0–3.2 | 140–17 |
| Davion DozierSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 8.02.5–12.7 | — | — | — | 3712–54 |
| Jayden ScottSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 8.02.0–13.6 | — | — | — | 130–16 |
| Joshisa TraderSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 6.92.1–10.9 | — | — | — | 309–45 |
| Keenan JacksonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 6.71.9–10.6 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.6 | — |
App State
- Rush yds
- 68
- Receptions
- 2.2
- Rec yds
- 19
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 44
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 45
- Receptions
- 3.8
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 26
NC State
- Pass yds
- 203
- Rush yds
- 28
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 57
- Pass yds
- 152
- Rush yds
- 35
- Rush yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 1.7
- Rec yds
- 14
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rec yds
- 13
- Rec yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.5
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ BaileyQB · NCSU | Passing yards | 202.6 | 202.8 | 106.2–252.2 | Shop the line |
| Jaquari LewisRB · APP | Rushing yards | 67.5 | 59.1 | 20.7–104.1 | Shop the line |
| Victor SnowWR · NCSU | Receiving yards | 56.5 | 45.3 | 17.1–81.9 | Shop the line |
| Tad HudsonQB · NCSU | Passing yards | 151.8 | 162.8 | 21.7–243.6 | Shop the line |
| Izayah CummingsTE · APP | Receiving yards | 44.0 | 35.3 | 15.2–64.1 | Shop the line |
| Will WilsonQB · NCSU | Rushing yards | 34.9 | 28.7 | 8.1–57.3 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 202.6
- Median
- 202.8
- 20th–80th
- 106.2–252.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 67.5
- Median
- 59.1
- 20th–80th
- 20.7–104.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 56.5
- Median
- 45.3
- 20th–80th
- 17.1–81.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 151.8
- Median
- 162.8
- 20th–80th
- 21.7–243.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 44.0
- Median
- 35.3
- 20th–80th
- 15.2–64.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 34.9
- Median
- 28.7
- 20th–80th
- 8.1–57.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated