New Mexico State Aggies at Florida State Seminoles college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Aug 29
- 7:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Florida State home
- Doak Campbell Stadium
- Captured market
- FSU -31.5
- DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
- Player model
- 18 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Florida State carries the early number into Doak Campbell Stadium.
New Mexico State travels to Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium. The captured market lists Florida State as a 31.5-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 18 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Ashton Daniels (FSU), Quintrevion Wisner (FSU), and Duce Robinson (FSU).
Market frame
Florida State is the captured favorite by 31.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
18 player distributions are available, led by Ashton Daniels (FSU).
Venue context
Florida State is the designated home team at Doak Campbell Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00DraftKings snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
New Mexico State pass protection vs Florida State pass rush
New Mexico State's pass protection graded 56.9 in 2025 (123rd of 136); Florida State's pass rush graded 62.3 (107th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Florida State's pass rush.
Florida State pass protection vs New Mexico State pass rush
Florida State's pass protection graded 73.1 in 2025 (17th of 136); New Mexico State's pass rush graded 69.0 (25th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
New Mexico State receiving corps vs Florida State coverage
New Mexico State's receiving corps graded 62.9 in 2025 (93rd of 136); Florida State's coverage graded 61.8 (98th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Florida State receiving corps vs New Mexico State coverage
Florida State's receiving corps graded 66.0 in 2025 (46th of 136); New Mexico State's coverage graded 65.1 (64th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Florida State's receiving corps.
New Mexico State rush offense vs Florida State run defense
New Mexico State's rush offense graded 64.7 in 2025 (135th of 136); Florida State's run defense graded 68.4 (52nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Florida State's run defense.
Florida State rush offense vs New Mexico State run defense
Florida State's rush offense graded 76.0 in 2025 (61st of 136); New Mexico State's run defense graded 65.2 (91st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Florida State's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
New Mexico State
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TK KingSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 10.94.2–16.0 | — | — | 4.51.0–6.3 | 4718–75 |
| Adam Damantebalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 8.32.5–14.9 | 12661–202 | — | — | — |
| Dijon StanleySAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 6.82.7–12.1 | — | 308–53 | 1.90.0–3.4 | 100–22 |
| Brodie Malone-BradfordSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 6.42.2–9.6 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.8 | 259–41 |
| TJ PrideSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 6.41.9–10.0 | — | — | — | 329–49 |
| Isaiah Rudisonbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 5.61.5–8.0 | — | 274–51 | 1.60.0–2.9 | — |
| Jerry LydiattSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | TE | 5.41.8–7.7 | — | — | 2.51.0–4.0 | — |
| Myles LibmanVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 4.41.3–7.0 | — | — | — | 205–27 |
Florida State
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton DanielsELITE · Tier 2 | QB | 23.711.7–32.5 | 224157–280 | 6215–95 | — | — |
| Quintrevion WisnerVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 15.16.0–21.7 | — | 7224–108 | — | — |
| Duce RobinsonELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 14.44.7–21.5 | — | — | 4.11.0–5.9 | 5824–86 |
| Gemari Sandsbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 11.03.8–17.0 | — | 4212–68 | 2.40.9–3.6 | 170–32 |
| Desirrio RilesSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | TE | 9.83.1–15.0 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.7 | 4214–64 |
| Micahi DanzyVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 9.83.2–15.9 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.0 | 4314–69 |
| Jayvan BoggsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 8.62.6–12.4 | — | — | 2.71.0–3.9 | 3811–58 |
| Landen ThomasVOLATILE · Tier 5 | TE | 7.42.2–11.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Singleton Jr.HIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 7.71.5–11.9 | — | 3511–62 | — | — |
| Ousmane KromahELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.11.6–11.8 | — | 3510–59 | — | — |
New Mexico State
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 47
- Pass yds
- 126
- Rush yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 1.9
- Rec yds
- 10
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 25
- Rec yds
- 32
- Rush yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 1.6
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 20
Florida State
- Pass yds
- 224
- Rush yds
- 62
- Rush yds
- 72
- Receptions
- 4.1
- Rec yds
- 58
- Rush yds
- 42
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 17
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 42
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rush yds
- 35
- Rush yds
- 35
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton DanielsQB · FSU | Passing yards | 224.4 | 230.3 | 157.3–279.5 | Shop the line |
| Quintrevion WisnerRB · FSU | Rushing yards | 72.4 | 54.6 | 24.2–107.8 | Shop the line |
| Duce RobinsonWR · FSU | Receiving yards | 57.6 | 46.9 | 24.0–86.1 | Shop the line |
| Gemari SandsRB · FSU | Rushing yards | 42.2 | 30.9 | 12.2–67.5 | Shop the line |
| TK KingWR · NMSU | Receiving yards | 46.5 | 36.7 | 17.7–75.1 | Shop the line |
| Desirrio RilesTE · FSU | Receiving yards | 42.2 | 36.3 | 14.4–64.1 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 224.4
- Median
- 230.3
- 20th–80th
- 157.3–279.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 72.4
- Median
- 54.6
- 20th–80th
- 24.2–107.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 57.6
- Median
- 46.9
- 20th–80th
- 24.0–86.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 42.2
- Median
- 30.9
- 20th–80th
- 12.2–67.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 46.5
- Median
- 36.7
- 20th–80th
- 17.7–75.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 42.2
- Median
- 36.3
- 20th–80th
- 14.4–64.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated