Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Nevada Wolf Pack college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 21
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Nevada home
- Mackay Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 14 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Hawai'i visits Nevada in Week 12.
Hawai'i travels to Nevada at Mackay Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 14 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Micah Alejado (HAW), Pofele Ashlock (HAW), and Cam Barfield (HAW).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
14 player distributions are available, led by Micah Alejado (HAW).
Venue context
Nevada is the designated home team at Mackay Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:27+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:27+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Hawai'i pass protection vs Nevada pass rush
Hawai'i's pass protection graded 59.8 in 2025 (107th of 136); Nevada's pass rush graded 70.3 (13th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Nevada's pass rush.
Nevada pass protection vs Hawai'i pass rush
Nevada's pass protection graded 63.7 in 2025 (87th of 136); Hawai'i's pass rush graded 71.1 (8th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Hawai'i's pass rush.
Hawai'i receiving corps vs Nevada coverage
Hawai'i's receiving corps graded 63.0 in 2025 (90th of 136); Nevada's coverage graded 66.0 (46th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Nevada's coverage. Nevada's coverage returns only 23.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Nevada receiving corps vs Hawai'i coverage
Nevada's receiving corps graded 60.3 in 2025 (121st of 136); Hawai'i's coverage graded 65.1 (62nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Hawai'i's coverage.
Hawai'i rush offense vs Nevada run defense
Hawai'i's rush offense graded 72.5 in 2025 (100th of 136); Nevada's run defense graded 68.6 (46th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Nevada's run defense.
Nevada rush offense vs Hawai'i run defense
Nevada's rush offense graded 69.5 in 2025 (122nd of 136); Hawai'i's run defense graded 62.6 (120th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Hawai'i
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah AlejadoSAFE FLOOR · Tier 4 | QB | 17.36.8–26.2 | 207140–281 | — | — | — |
| Pofele AshlockHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 14.14.5–21.4 | — | — | 4.41.0–6.3 | 5818–84 |
| Cam BarfieldELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 12.94.4–20.2 | — | 4715–68 | 2.10.9–3.4 | 150–24 |
| Tama UiliataHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 7.11.8–11.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Audric Harrisbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.61.6–10.4 | — | — | — | 277–34 |
| Devon Tauaefabalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 6.71.8–10.6 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.6 | 298–37 |
| Carson BrownELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.9–10.3 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 297–42 |
| DeVon RiceVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.11.0–10.5 | — | — | — | — |
Nevada
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter JonesVOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 9.91.9–18.8 | 14431–232 | — | — | — |
| Luke Duncanbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 9.82.1–16.6 | 14934–235 | — | — | — |
| Gary Givens IIISAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.22.0–10.8 | — | — | — | 3410–48 |
| Herschel TurnerELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.51.5–10.9 | — | 337–54 | — | — |
| Dominic Kelleybalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.51.0–10.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Jayden O'RourkeSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 5.81.8–9.7 | — | — | — | 267–40 |
Hawai'i
- Pass yds
- 207
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 58
- Rush yds
- 47
- Receptions
- 2.1
- Rec yds
- 15
- Rec yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 29
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 29
Nevada
- Pass yds
- 144
- Pass yds
- 149
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rush yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah AlejadoQB · HAW | Passing yards | 207.1 | 217.1 | 139.7–280.6 | Shop the line |
| Pofele AshlockWR · HAW | Receiving yards | 57.5 | 44.1 | 17.9–83.8 | Shop the line |
| Cam BarfieldRB · HAW | Rushing yards | 47.2 | 39.9 | 14.6–68.3 | Shop the line |
| Carter JonesQB · NEV | Passing yards | 143.9 | 167.9 | 30.8–232.1 | Shop the line |
| Luke DuncanQB · NEV | Passing yards | 149.1 | 167.0 | 34.0–235.1 | Shop the line |
| Gary Givens IIIWR · NEV | Receiving yards | 34.2 | 23.7 | 9.6–48.3 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 207.1
- Median
- 217.1
- 20th–80th
- 139.7–280.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 57.5
- Median
- 44.1
- 20th–80th
- 17.9–83.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 47.2
- Median
- 39.9
- 20th–80th
- 14.6–68.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 143.9
- Median
- 167.9
- 20th–80th
- 30.8–232.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 149.1
- Median
- 167.0
- 20th–80th
- 34.0–235.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 34.2
- Median
- 23.7
- 20th–80th
- 9.6–48.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated