Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 26
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Nevada home
- Mackay Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 11 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Air Force visits Nevada in Week 4.
Air Force travels to Nevada at Mackay Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 11 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Liam Szarka (AF), Owen Allen (AF), and Carter Jones (NEV).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
11 player distributions are available, led by Liam Szarka (AF).
Venue context
Nevada is the designated home team at Mackay Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Air Force pass protection vs Nevada pass rush
Air Force's pass protection graded 62.5 in 2025 (92nd of 136); Nevada's pass rush graded 70.3 (13th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Nevada's pass rush.
Nevada pass protection vs Air Force pass rush
Nevada's pass protection graded 63.7 in 2025 (87th of 136); Air Force's pass rush graded 69.1 (24th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Air Force's pass rush.
Air Force receiving corps vs Nevada coverage
Air Force's receiving corps graded 74.9 in 2025 (1st of 136); Nevada's coverage graded 66.0 (46th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Air Force's receiving corps. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Nevada receiving corps vs Air Force coverage
Nevada's receiving corps graded 60.3 in 2025 (121st of 136); Air Force's coverage graded 56.2 (132nd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Air Force rush offense vs Nevada run defense
Air Force's rush offense graded 73.0 in 2025 (94th of 136); Nevada's run defense graded 68.6 (46th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Nevada's run defense.
Nevada rush offense vs Air Force run defense
Nevada's rush offense graded 69.5 in 2025 (122nd of 136); Air Force's run defense graded 64.8 (101st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Air Force's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Air Force
5 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam SzarkaHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | QB | 16.04.7–25.9 | — | 6319–77 | — | — |
| Owen AllenHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | RB | 12.94.3–19.7 | — | 7020–103 | — | — |
| Kemper HodgesSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 10.12.2–16.6 | — | 4410–71 | — | — |
| Josh Johnsonbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 9.51.7–15.0 | — | — | — | — |
| Jonah DawsonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 8.12.6–12.2 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.7 | 4313–67 |
Nevada
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter JonesHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 9.91.9–18.8 | 14431–232 | — | — | — |
| Luke Duncanbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 9.82.1–16.6 | 14934–235 | — | — | — |
| Gary Givens IIISAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 7.22.0–10.8 | — | — | — | 3410–48 |
| Herschel TurnerELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.51.5–10.9 | — | 337–54 | — | — |
| Dominic Kelleybalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.51.0–10.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Jayden O'RourkeSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 5.81.8–9.7 | — | — | — | 267–40 |
Air Force
- Rush yds
- 63
- Rush yds
- 70
- Rush yds
- 44
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 43
Nevada
- Pass yds
- 144
- Pass yds
- 149
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rush yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam SzarkaQB · AF | Rushing yards | 63.0 | 50.4 | 18.9–76.9 | Shop the line |
| Owen AllenRB · AF | Rushing yards | 70.3 | 62.4 | 19.8–103.4 | Shop the line |
| Carter JonesQB · NEV | Passing yards | 143.9 | 167.9 | 30.8–232.1 | Shop the line |
| Kemper HodgesQB · AF | Rushing yards | 43.6 | 34.6 | 9.6–71.0 | Shop the line |
| Luke DuncanQB · NEV | Passing yards | 149.1 | 167.0 | 34.0–235.1 | Shop the line |
| Jonah DawsonWR · AF | Receiving yards | 43.2 | 37.2 | 12.6–66.7 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 63.0
- Median
- 50.4
- 20th–80th
- 18.9–76.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 70.3
- Median
- 62.4
- 20th–80th
- 19.8–103.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 143.9
- Median
- 167.9
- 20th–80th
- 30.8–232.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 43.6
- Median
- 34.6
- 20th–80th
- 9.6–71.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 149.1
- Median
- 167.0
- 20th–80th
- 34.0–235.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 43.2
- Median
- 37.2
- 20th–80th
- 12.6–66.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated