North Texas Mean Green at UTSA Roadrunners college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14
- Time TBA
- Venue
- UTSA home
- Alamodome
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 19 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
North Texas visits UTSA in Week 11.
North Texas travels to UTSA at Alamodome. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 19 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Owen McCown (UTSA), Tayven Jackson (UNT), and David Amador II (UTSA).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
19 player distributions are available, led by Owen McCown (UTSA).
Venue context
UTSA is the designated home team at Alamodome.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:23+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:23+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
North Texas pass protection vs UTSA pass rush
North Texas's pass protection graded 73.9 in 2025 (13th of 136); UTSA's pass rush graded 64.5 (77th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for North Texas's pass protection. North Texas's pass protection returns only 3.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
UTSA pass protection vs North Texas pass rush
UTSA's pass protection graded 59.3 in 2025 (110th of 136); North Texas's pass rush graded 64.4 (79th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for North Texas's pass rush. North Texas's pass rush returns only 15.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
North Texas receiving corps vs UTSA coverage
North Texas's receiving corps graded 70.0 in 2025 (9th of 136); UTSA's coverage graded 59.4 (115th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for North Texas's receiving corps. North Texas's receiving corps returns only 5.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
UTSA receiving corps vs North Texas coverage
UTSA's receiving corps graded 66.6 in 2025 (34th of 136); North Texas's coverage graded 70.2 (18th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for North Texas's coverage. North Texas's coverage returns only 6.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
North Texas rush offense vs UTSA run defense
North Texas's rush offense graded 83.4 in 2025 (7th of 136); UTSA's run defense graded 64.0 (111th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for North Texas's rush offense. North Texas's rush offense returns only 2.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
UTSA rush offense vs North Texas run defense
UTSA's rush offense graded 77.9 in 2025 (42nd of 136); North Texas's run defense graded 67.3 (61st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for UTSA's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
North Texas
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tayven JacksonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 4 | QB | 13.35.0–22.3 | 186122–271 | — | — | — |
| Corri Millinerbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 12.94.0–20.7 | — | — | 4.11.0–6.2 | 5519–80 |
| Jahiem WhiteSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | RB | 11.73.7–18.5 | — | 5012–79 | 1.90.8–3.2 | — |
| Justin StevensonELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.12.6–13.5 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.3 | 3610–53 |
| Dalton CarnesSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.92.2–10.6 | — | — | — | 318–44 |
| Andy Jeanbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.8–10.2 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.8 | 287–41 |
| Colin Pagebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.41.1–10.6 | — | 304–51 | — | — |
| Josiah MartinHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.6–10.2 | — | — | 2.31.0–3.6 | — |
| Connor Vaughnbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 5.91.4–9.7 | — | — | — | — |
UTSA
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen McCownVOLATILE · Tier 4 | QB | 17.47.0–26.0 | 239159–288 | — | — | — |
| David Amador IIELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 13.74.5–22.0 | — | — | 4.51.0–6.6 | 5920–82 |
| Will Henderson IIIHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | RB | 13.43.7–19.8 | — | 5215–80 | — | — |
| AJ WilsonHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 8.92.8–14.1 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.9 | 3613–55 |
| DJ Allen Jr.ELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.22.2–13.1 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 319–44 |
| A'Marion Petersonbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.31.8–11.9 | — | 345–52 | — | — |
| Brandon TennisonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 6.90.9–12.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Jamel Hardy Jr.balanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.51.7–10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Mekhi AndersonHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 5.91.3–10.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Brandon Young Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 5.81.5–9.4 | — | — | — | — |
North Texas
- Pass yds
- 186
- Receptions
- 4.1
- Rec yds
- 55
- Rush yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 1.9
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 36
- Rec yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rush yds
- 30
- Receptions
- 2.3
UTSA
- Pass yds
- 239
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 59
- Rush yds
- 52
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rush yds
- 34
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen McCownQB · UTSA | Passing yards | 239.4 | 232.0 | 158.8–287.9 | Shop the line |
| Tayven JacksonQB · UNT | Passing yards | 186.0 | 202.5 | 121.8–271.0 | Shop the line |
| David Amador IIWR · UTSA | Receiving yards | 58.5 | 42.5 | 19.8–82.4 | Shop the line |
| Will Henderson IIIRB · UTSA | Rushing yards | 51.9 | 42.6 | 14.7–79.8 | Shop the line |
| Corri MillinerWR · UNT | Receiving yards | 54.6 | 39.3 | 18.7–80.2 | Shop the line |
| Jahiem WhiteRB · UNT | Rushing yards | 50.4 | 43.2 | 11.8–79.0 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 239.4
- Median
- 232.0
- 20th–80th
- 158.8–287.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 186.0
- Median
- 202.5
- 20th–80th
- 121.8–271.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 58.5
- Median
- 42.5
- 20th–80th
- 19.8–82.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 51.9
- Median
- 42.6
- 20th–80th
- 14.7–79.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 54.6
- Median
- 39.3
- 20th–80th
- 18.7–80.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 50.4
- Median
- 43.2
- 20th–80th
- 11.8–79.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated