Arkansas State Red Wolves at Memphis Tigers college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 5
- 7:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Memphis home
- Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
- Captured market
- MEM -10
- DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
- Player model
- 15 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Memphis carries the early number into Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.
Arkansas State travels to Memphis at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. The captured market lists Memphis as a 10-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 15 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Kenyon Clay (ARST), Chauncy Cobb (ARST), and Devin Spencer (ARST).
Market frame
Memphis is the captured favorite by 10; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
15 player distributions are available, led by Kenyon Clay (ARST).
Venue context
Memphis is the designated home team at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00DraftKings snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Arkansas State pass protection vs Memphis pass rush
Arkansas State's pass protection graded 70.0 in 2025 (35th of 136); Memphis's pass rush graded 61.8 (116th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Arkansas State's pass protection.
Memphis pass protection vs Arkansas State pass rush
Memphis's pass protection graded 70.4 in 2025 (33rd of 136); Arkansas State's pass rush graded 66.2 (59th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Memphis's pass protection. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Arkansas State receiving corps vs Memphis coverage
Arkansas State's receiving corps graded 63.6 in 2025 (80th of 136); Memphis's coverage graded 60.1 (113th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Arkansas State's receiving corps.
Memphis receiving corps vs Arkansas State coverage
Memphis's receiving corps graded 66.4 in 2025 (35th of 136); Arkansas State's coverage graded 61.4 (103rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Memphis's receiving corps. Memphis's receiving corps returns only 11.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Arkansas State rush offense vs Memphis run defense
Arkansas State's rush offense graded 71.4 in 2025 (109th of 136); Memphis's run defense graded 73.8 (11th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Memphis's run defense. Memphis's run defense returns only 6.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Memphis rush offense vs Arkansas State run defense
Memphis's rush offense graded 78.0 in 2025 (40th of 136); Arkansas State's run defense graded 64.7 (104th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Memphis's rush offense. Memphis's rush offense returns only 0.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Arkansas State
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyon ClayHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 12.23.5–19.5 | — | 4211–68 | 2.20.9–3.7 | 180–26 |
| Chauncy CobbHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 10.33.2–16.9 | — | — | 4.41.0–6.7 | 5217–76 |
| Devin SpencerSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 8.52.8–13.2 | — | 349–62 | 1.80.0–3.3 | 120–20 |
| Hunter SummersELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.32.7–13.4 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.0 | 3913–64 |
| Jaylen BonelliHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 6.11.9–10.4 | — | — | 2.51.0–4.0 | 298–43 |
| Tyler Littlebalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 6.01.5–10.3 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.8 | 267–40 |
Memphis
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylin CarterHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 9.12.8–14.6 | — | — | 2.30.0–4.0 | 140–31 |
| Dallan HaydenVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.72.4–13.4 | — | 4814–79 | — | — |
| Hunter TiptonELITE · Tier 5 | TE | 8.32.6–11.7 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.8 | 3711–59 |
| Tychaun Chapmanbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 8.82.6–13.5 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.3 | 4113–64 |
| Brady KluseVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.72.2–12.3 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.2 | 3411–52 |
| TJ Johnsonbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 7.31.9–12.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Manny CoveySAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 6.91.5–11.0 | — | — | — | 160–25 |
| Terrell Timmons Jr.ELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 7.01.9–10.4 | — | — | — | 309–47 |
| Bryce Dorseybalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.41.6–9.9 | — | — | — | 267–37 |
Arkansas State
- Rush yds
- 42
- Receptions
- 2.2
- Rec yds
- 18
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 52
- Rush yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 1.8
- Rec yds
- 12
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 29
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 26
Memphis
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rec yds
- 14
- Rush yds
- 48
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 16
- Rec yds
- 30
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyon ClayRB · ARST | Rushing yards | 41.9 | 33.8 | 11.0–68.2 | Shop the line |
| Chauncy CobbWR · ARST | Receiving yards | 51.9 | 40.4 | 17.3–76.3 | Shop the line |
| Devin SpencerRB · ARST | Rushing yards | 34.2 | 28.7 | 9.1–61.7 | Shop the line |
| Jaylin CarterRB · MEM | Receiving yards | 14.1 | 11.3 | 0.0–31.4 | Shop the line |
| Dallan HaydenRB · MEM | Rushing yards | 48.0 | 43.9 | 13.7–79.3 | Shop the line |
| Hunter TiptonTE · MEM | Receiving yards | 36.8 | 27.8 | 11.1–59.2 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 41.9
- Median
- 33.8
- 20th–80th
- 11.0–68.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 51.9
- Median
- 40.4
- 20th–80th
- 17.3–76.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 34.2
- Median
- 28.7
- 20th–80th
- 9.1–61.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 14.1
- Median
- 11.3
- 20th–80th
- 0.0–31.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 48.0
- Median
- 43.9
- 20th–80th
- 13.7–79.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 36.8
- Median
- 27.8
- 20th–80th
- 11.1–59.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated