Fresno State Bulldogs at San Diego State Aztecs college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 17
- 10:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- San Diego State home
- Snapdragon Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 18 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Fresno State visits San Diego State in Week 7.
Fresno State travels to San Diego State at Snapdragon Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 18 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Lucky Sutton (SDSU), Jayden Denegal (SDSU), and Josiah Freeman (FRES).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
18 player distributions are available, led by Lucky Sutton (SDSU).
Venue context
San Diego State is the designated home team at Snapdragon Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:09+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:09+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Fresno State pass protection vs San Diego State pass rush
Fresno State's pass protection graded 73.3 in 2025 (14th of 136); San Diego State's pass rush graded 67.8 (42nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Fresno State's pass protection.
San Diego State pass protection vs Fresno State pass rush
San Diego State's pass protection graded 65.7 in 2025 (72nd of 136); Fresno State's pass rush graded 63.2 (94th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for San Diego State's pass protection.
Fresno State receiving corps vs San Diego State coverage
Fresno State's receiving corps graded 60.6 in 2025 (116th of 136); San Diego State's coverage graded 71.7 (9th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for San Diego State's coverage.
San Diego State receiving corps vs Fresno State coverage
San Diego State's receiving corps graded 60.3 in 2025 (120th of 136); Fresno State's coverage graded 68.7 (24th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Fresno State's coverage.
Fresno State rush offense vs San Diego State run defense
Fresno State's rush offense graded 77.2 in 2025 (51st of 136); San Diego State's run defense graded 74.0 (10th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for San Diego State's run defense.
San Diego State rush offense vs Fresno State run defense
San Diego State's rush offense graded 80.4 in 2025 (20th of 136); Fresno State's run defense graded 65.0 (93rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for San Diego State's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Fresno State
7 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josiah FreemanELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 10.93.9–16.8 | — | — | 3.91.1–5.8 | 4615–67 |
| Rayshon Lukebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 10.53.7–17.4 | — | 4413–63 | 2.30.0–4.0 | 160–20 |
| Bryson DonelsonELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.22.2–12.7 | — | 378–61 | — | — |
| Jahlil McClainbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 7.32.3–11.5 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.1 | 339–48 |
| Brandon RamirezHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 7.61.7–11.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Jordan Malau'uluSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.7–10.2 | — | — | — | 277–34 |
| Jayon FarrarELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.8–10.5 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 297–38 |
San Diego State
11 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucky Suttonbalanced · Tier 5 | RB | 16.26.2–22.9 | — | 8035–110 | — | — |
| Jayden DenegalHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 11.83.4–20.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Jordan Napierbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 10.43.0–15.3 | — | — | 3.61.0–6.2 | 4312–66 |
| Donovan Brownbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 9.83.3–15.9 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.0 | 5115–73 |
| Christian WashingtonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.02.3–14.0 | — | 4714–80 | — | — |
| Jaylon HawkinsVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.32.5–12.8 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.6 | 356–59 |
| Jacob BostickELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.93.1–14.0 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.3 | 3711–55 |
| Javion KinnardSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 7.32.1–11.3 | — | — | 2.60.9–4.2 | 288–42 |
| Nathan Acevedobalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.72.0–10.8 | — | — | — | 328–46 |
| Justius Lowebalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.61.9–10.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Ayo Shotomide-Kingbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.01.8–10.0 | — | — | — | 278–41 |
Fresno State
- Receptions
- 3.9
- Rec yds
- 46
- Rush yds
- 44
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rec yds
- 16
- Rush yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 29
San Diego State
- Rush yds
- 80
- Receptions
- 3.6
- Rec yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 51
- Rush yds
- 47
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 28
- Rec yds
- 32
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucky SuttonRB · SDSU | Rushing yards | 79.6 | 66.2 | 35.0–109.7 | Shop the line |
| Josiah FreemanWR · FRES | Receiving yards | 45.5 | 36.7 | 15.0–67.0 | Shop the line |
| Rayshon LukeRB · FRES | Rushing yards | 44.0 | 42.0 | 12.9–63.0 | Shop the line |
| Jordan NapierWR · SDSU | Receiving yards | 43.3 | 33.6 | 11.5–66.2 | Shop the line |
| Donovan BrownWR · SDSU | Receiving yards | 51.3 | 38.8 | 15.2–72.9 | Shop the line |
| Christian WashingtonRB · SDSU | Rushing yards | 47.0 | 42.0 | 13.7–80.0 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 79.6
- Median
- 66.2
- 20th–80th
- 35.0–109.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 45.5
- Median
- 36.7
- 20th–80th
- 15.0–67.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 44.0
- Median
- 42.0
- 20th–80th
- 12.9–63.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 43.3
- Median
- 33.6
- 20th–80th
- 11.5–66.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 51.3
- Median
- 38.8
- 20th–80th
- 15.2–72.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 47.0
- Median
- 42.0
- 20th–80th
- 13.7–80.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated