Wisconsin Badgers at Purdue Boilermakers college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 21
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Purdue home
- Ross-Ade Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 19 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Wisconsin visits Purdue in Week 12.
Wisconsin travels to Purdue at Ross-Ade Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 19 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Colton Joseph (WIS), Asaad Waseem (PUR), and Ryan Browne (PUR).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
19 player distributions are available, led by Colton Joseph (WIS).
Venue context
Purdue is the designated home team at Ross-Ade Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:27+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:27+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Wisconsin pass protection vs Purdue pass rush
Wisconsin's pass protection graded 62.3 in 2025 (96th of 136); Purdue's pass rush graded 60.7 (125th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Wisconsin's pass protection.
Purdue pass protection vs Wisconsin pass rush
Purdue's pass protection graded 60.2 in 2025 (105th of 136); Wisconsin's pass rush graded 69.0 (27th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Wisconsin's pass rush. Wisconsin's pass rush returns only 24.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Wisconsin receiving corps vs Purdue coverage
Wisconsin's receiving corps graded 64.3 in 2025 (71st of 136); Purdue's coverage graded 56.1 (133rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Wisconsin's receiving corps.
Purdue receiving corps vs Wisconsin coverage
Purdue's receiving corps graded 61.1 in 2025 (109th of 136); Wisconsin's coverage graded 60.1 (112th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Wisconsin rush offense vs Purdue run defense
Wisconsin's rush offense graded 68.3 in 2025 (128th of 136); Purdue's run defense graded 59.3 (134th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Purdue rush offense vs Wisconsin run defense
Purdue's rush offense graded 72.1 in 2025 (104th of 136); Wisconsin's run defense graded 68.3 (54th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Wisconsin's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Wisconsin
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colton JosephHIGH CEILING · Tier 4 | QB | 22.58.0–30.5 | 169107–226 | 6721–107 | — | — |
| Darrion DupreeELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.83.1–15.0 | — | 4312–72 | — | — |
| Abu Sama IIIbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 9.53.0–13.8 | — | 4615–82 | — | — |
| Carter Smithbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 8.91.4–17.1 | — | — | — | — |
| Shamar RigbyVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.82.6–12.8 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.5 | 4011–56 |
| Jacob HarrisVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.92.5–11.5 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.0 | 3810–53 |
| Zion KearneySAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.42.1–10.3 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.8 | 329–49 |
| Bryan Jackson IIbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.31.0–10.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Malachi ColemanSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.8–10.0 | — | — | — | 277–37 |
Purdue
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asaad WaseemVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 11.13.9–17.7 | — | — | 4.31.0–6.8 | 5318–73 |
| Ryan BrowneELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 9.82.5–19.0 | 15149–243 | — | — | — |
| Antonio HarrisVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 10.63.3–16.7 | — | 4211–68 | 1.90.0–3.2 | 150–25 |
| Corey Smithbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 8.93.0–14.2 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.6 | 4313–60 |
| George BurhennELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 8.52.8–14.2 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.9 | 3813–59 |
| Xavier Townsendbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 7.52.3–11.5 | — | — | — | 3810–54 |
| Jerrick GibsonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.41.1–11.4 | — | 304–51 | — | — |
| Jesse WatsonVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.7–10.0 | — | — | — | — |
| De'Nylon MorrissetteHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.41.9–10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Jaylan Hornsbybalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 5.71.7–9.7 | — | — | — | 257–34 |
Wisconsin
- Pass yds
- 169
- Rush yds
- 67
- Rush yds
- 43
- Rush yds
- 46
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 38
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 32
- Rec yds
- 27
Purdue
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 53
- Pass yds
- 151
- Rush yds
- 42
- Receptions
- 1.9
- Rec yds
- 15
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rush yds
- 30
- Rec yds
- 25
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colton JosephQB · WIS | Passing yards | 169.4 | 173.3 | 107.4–225.5 | Shop the line |
| Asaad WaseemWR · PUR | Receiving yards | 52.6 | 40.9 | 18.2–73.0 | Shop the line |
| Ryan BrowneQB · PUR | Passing yards | 150.5 | 179.9 | 49.3–242.6 | Shop the line |
| Antonio HarrisRB · PUR | Rushing yards | 41.8 | 37.3 | 11.4–68.4 | Shop the line |
| Darrion DupreeRB · WIS | Rushing yards | 42.9 | 36.6 | 12.1–72.2 | Shop the line |
| Abu Sama IIIRB · WIS | Rushing yards | 45.7 | 47.9 | 14.6–81.8 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 169.4
- Median
- 173.3
- 20th–80th
- 107.4–225.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 52.6
- Median
- 40.9
- 20th–80th
- 18.2–73.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 150.5
- Median
- 179.9
- 20th–80th
- 49.3–242.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 41.8
- Median
- 37.3
- 20th–80th
- 11.4–68.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 42.9
- Median
- 36.6
- 20th–80th
- 12.1–72.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 45.7
- Median
- 47.9
- 20th–80th
- 14.6–81.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated