Iowa Hawkeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 21
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Illinois home
- Gies Memorial Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 14 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Iowa visits Illinois in Week 12.
Iowa travels to Illinois at Gies Memorial Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 14 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Katin Houser (ILL), Alex Perry (ILL), and Kamari Moulton (IOWA).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
14 player distributions are available, led by Katin Houser (ILL).
Venue context
Illinois is the designated home team at Gies Memorial Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:27+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:27+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Iowa pass protection vs Illinois pass rush
Iowa's pass protection graded 80.5 in 2025 (1st of 136); Illinois's pass rush graded 67.8 (43rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Iowa's pass protection.
Illinois pass protection vs Iowa pass rush
Illinois's pass protection graded 64.4 in 2025 (83rd of 136); Iowa's pass rush graded 74.3 (5th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Iowa's pass rush. Iowa's pass rush returns only 20.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Iowa receiving corps vs Illinois coverage
Iowa's receiving corps graded 62.8 in 2025 (96th of 136); Illinois's coverage graded 63.0 (80th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Illinois's coverage.
Illinois receiving corps vs Iowa coverage
Illinois's receiving corps graded 68.8 in 2025 (16th of 136); Iowa's coverage graded 68.3 (26th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Iowa rush offense vs Illinois run defense
Iowa's rush offense graded 77.3 in 2025 (50th of 136); Illinois's run defense graded 68.8 (45th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Illinois rush offense vs Iowa run defense
Illinois's rush offense graded 73.8 in 2025 (88th of 136); Iowa's run defense graded 69.5 (43rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Iowa's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Iowa
6 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamari MoultonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 12.34.7–20.2 | — | 6720–101 | — | — |
| DJ VonnahmeSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 9.83.5–15.4 | — | — | 3.21.0–5.3 | 4515–63 |
| Reece Vander ZeeVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.32.3–12.7 | — | — | — | 3910–57 |
| KJ ParkerSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 5.81.8–9.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Dayton Howardbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.8–10.3 | — | — | — | — |
| Jeremy HecklinskiSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 6.41.0–11.2 | — | — | — | — |
Illinois
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katin Houserbalanced · Tier 4 | QB | 20.58.9–28.9 | 211142–276 | 29-0–49 | — | — |
| Alex PerryELITE · Tier 3 | WR | 15.15.7–22.5 | — | — | 4.31.0–6.1 | 6325–84 |
| Jayshon PlattELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 11.83.7–19.8 | — | — | 3.51.0–5.1 | 4914–74 |
| Hudson ClementSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 9.73.7–15.4 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.1 | 5015–68 |
| Ca'Lil Valentinebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 10.02.6–14.5 | — | 4512–71 | — | — |
| Kaden Feaginbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 9.63.1–14.9 | — | 346–57 | — | 150–20 |
| Collin DixonHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 8.82.8–13.9 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.3 | 4112–59 |
| Aidan Laugherybalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 8.22.3–12.7 | — | 357–56 | — | — |
Iowa
- Rush yds
- 67
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 45
- Rec yds
- 39
Illinois
- Pass yds
- 211
- Rush yds
- 29
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 63
- Receptions
- 3.5
- Rec yds
- 49
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 50
- Rush yds
- 45
- Rush yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 15
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 41
- Rush yds
- 35
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katin HouserQB · ILL | Passing yards | 211.1 | 210.0 | 142.2–275.6 | Shop the line |
| Alex PerryWR · ILL | Receiving yards | 62.5 | 48.9 | 25.3–83.6 | Shop the line |
| Kamari MoultonRB · IOWA | Rushing yards | 67.0 | 60.1 | 20.3–101.1 | Shop the line |
| Jayshon PlattWR · ILL | Receiving yards | 48.8 | 34.7 | 14.0–73.6 | Shop the line |
| Hudson ClementWR · ILL | Receiving yards | 49.6 | 39.4 | 15.1–68.3 | Shop the line |
| DJ VonnahmeTE · IOWA | Receiving yards | 45.0 | 35.5 | 14.6–63.1 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 211.1
- Median
- 210.0
- 20th–80th
- 142.2–275.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 62.5
- Median
- 48.9
- 20th–80th
- 25.3–83.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 67.0
- Median
- 60.1
- 20th–80th
- 20.3–101.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 48.8
- Median
- 34.7
- 20th–80th
- 14.0–73.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 49.6
- Median
- 39.4
- 20th–80th
- 15.1–68.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 45.0
- Median
- 35.5
- 20th–80th
- 14.6–63.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated