Purdue Boilermakers at Penn State Nittany Lions college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 31
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Penn State home
- Beaver Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 20 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Purdue visits Penn State in Week 9.
Purdue travels to Penn State at Beaver Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 20 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Carson Hansen (PSU), Rocco Becht (PSU), and Asaad Waseem (PUR).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
20 player distributions are available, led by Carson Hansen (PSU).
Venue context
Penn State is the designated home team at Beaver Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:17+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:17+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Purdue pass protection vs Penn State pass rush
Purdue's pass protection graded 60.2 in 2025 (105th of 136); Penn State's pass rush graded 67.4 (53rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Penn State's pass rush. Penn State's pass rush returns only 14.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Penn State pass protection vs Purdue pass rush
Penn State's pass protection graded 74.5 in 2025 (10th of 136); Purdue's pass rush graded 60.7 (125th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Penn State's pass protection. Penn State's pass protection returns only 20.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Purdue receiving corps vs Penn State coverage
Purdue's receiving corps graded 61.1 in 2025 (109th of 136); Penn State's coverage graded 65.2 (59th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Penn State's coverage.
Penn State receiving corps vs Purdue coverage
Penn State's receiving corps graded 62.8 in 2025 (95th of 136); Purdue's coverage graded 56.1 (133rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Penn State's receiving corps. Penn State's receiving corps returns only 11.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Purdue rush offense vs Penn State run defense
Purdue's rush offense graded 72.1 in 2025 (104th of 136); Penn State's run defense graded 68.5 (51st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Penn State's run defense. Penn State's run defense returns only 22.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Penn State rush offense vs Purdue run defense
Penn State's rush offense graded 83.7 in 2025 (6th of 136); Purdue's run defense graded 59.3 (134th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Penn State's rush offense. Penn State's rush offense returns only 2.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Purdue
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asaad WaseemVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 11.53.9–17.7 | — | — | 4.31.0–6.8 | 5318–73 |
| Ryan BrowneELITE · Tier 5 | QB | 9.82.5–19.0 | 15149–243 | — | — | — |
| Antonio HarrisVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 10.63.3–16.7 | — | 4211–68 | 1.90.0–3.2 | 150–25 |
| Corey Smithbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 8.93.0–14.2 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.6 | 4313–60 |
| George BurhennSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 8.52.8–14.2 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.9 | 3813–59 |
| Xavier Townsendbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 7.52.3–11.5 | — | — | — | 3810–54 |
| Jerrick GibsonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.41.1–11.4 | — | 304–51 | — | — |
| Jesse Watsonbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.7–10.0 | — | — | — | — |
| De'Nylon MorrissetteHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.41.9–10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Jaylan Hornsbybalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 5.71.7–9.7 | — | — | — | 257–34 |
Penn State
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson HansenELITE · Tier 5 | RB | 16.76.8–24.5 | — | 7825–107 | — | — |
| Rocco BechtSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | QB | 13.64.3–23.9 | 15473–237 | — | — | — |
| Chase SowellSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 10.43.8–16.7 | — | — | 3.71.0–5.7 | 5116–72 |
| Benjamin BrahmerHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 9.72.9–14.4 | — | — | — | 4313–63 |
| Brett EskildsenHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 9.02.7–14.0 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.5 | 4212–61 |
| James PeoplesVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.41.9–14.0 | — | 337–53 | — | — |
| Andrew RappleyeaVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.82.3–12.6 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 3210–48 |
| Gabe BurkleHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 7.72.3–11.5 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.5 | 3710–54 |
| Cam Wallacebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 5.91.5–10.6 | — | 325–55 | — | — |
| Koby Howardbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 5.91.8–9.7 | — | — | — | 277–37 |
Purdue
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 53
- Pass yds
- 151
- Rush yds
- 42
- Receptions
- 1.9
- Rec yds
- 15
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rush yds
- 30
- Rec yds
- 25
Penn State
- Rush yds
- 78
- Pass yds
- 154
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 51
- Rec yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 42
- Rush yds
- 33
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 32
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 32
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson HansenRB · PSU | Rushing yards | 77.5 | 64.9 | 25.3–106.9 | Shop the line |
| Rocco BechtQB · PSU | Passing yards | 153.9 | 178.4 | 73.3–237.0 | Shop the line |
| Asaad WaseemWR · PUR | Receiving yards | 52.6 | 40.9 | 18.2–73.0 | Shop the line |
| Ryan BrowneQB · PUR | Passing yards | 150.5 | 179.9 | 49.3–242.6 | Shop the line |
| Antonio HarrisRB · PUR | Rushing yards | 41.6 | 37.3 | 11.4–68.4 | Shop the line |
| Chase SowellWR · PSU | Receiving yards | 50.9 | 41.9 | 15.8–71.6 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 77.5
- Median
- 64.9
- 20th–80th
- 25.3–106.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 153.9
- Median
- 178.4
- 20th–80th
- 73.3–237.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 52.6
- Median
- 40.9
- 20th–80th
- 18.2–73.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 150.5
- Median
- 179.9
- 20th–80th
- 49.3–242.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 41.6
- Median
- 37.3
- 20th–80th
- 11.4–68.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 50.9
- Median
- 41.9
- 20th–80th
- 15.8–71.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated