Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Wolverines college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 17
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Michigan home
- Michigan Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 19 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Penn State visits Michigan in Week 7.
Penn State travels to Michigan at Michigan Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 19 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (MICH), Carson Hansen (PSU), and Jordan Marshall (MICH).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
19 player distributions are available, led by Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (MICH).
Venue context
Michigan is the designated home team at Michigan Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:09+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:09+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Penn State pass protection vs Michigan pass rush
Penn State's pass protection graded 74.5 in 2025 (10th of 136); Michigan's pass rush graded 67.7 (45th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Penn State's pass protection. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Michigan pass protection vs Penn State pass rush
Michigan's pass protection graded 69.7 in 2025 (40th of 136); Penn State's pass rush graded 67.4 (53rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Penn State receiving corps vs Michigan coverage
Penn State's receiving corps graded 62.8 in 2025 (95th of 136); Michigan's coverage graded 65.0 (65th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Michigan's coverage.
Michigan receiving corps vs Penn State coverage
Michigan's receiving corps graded 63.6 in 2025 (81st of 136); Penn State's coverage graded 65.2 (59th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Penn State's coverage.
Penn State rush offense vs Michigan run defense
Penn State's rush offense graded 83.7 in 2025 (6th of 136); Michigan's run defense graded 71.9 (17th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Michigan rush offense vs Penn State run defense
Michigan's rush offense graded 81.2 in 2025 (14th of 136); Penn State's run defense graded 68.5 (51st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Michigan's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Penn State
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson HansenELITE · Tier 5 | RB | 16.46.8–24.0 | — | 7825–107 | — | — |
| Rocco BechtSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 13.64.3–23.9 | 15473–237 | — | — | — |
| Chase SowellSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 10.43.8–16.7 | — | — | 3.71.0–5.7 | 5116–72 |
| Benjamin BrahmerHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 9.72.9–14.4 | — | — | — | 4313–63 |
| Brett EskildsenHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 9.02.7–14.0 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.5 | 4212–61 |
| James PeoplesVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.41.9–14.0 | — | 337–53 | — | — |
| Andrew RappleyeaVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.82.3–12.6 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 3210–48 |
| Gabe BurkleELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.72.3–11.5 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.5 | 3710–54 |
| Cam Wallacebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 5.91.5–10.6 | — | 325–55 | — | — |
| Koby Howardbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 5.91.8–9.7 | — | — | — | 277–37 |
Michigan
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Fowler-NicolosiSAFE FLOOR · Tier 4 | QB | 17.26.2–25.6 | 222139–273 | — | — | — |
| Jordan Marshallbalanced · Tier 5 | RB | 14.65.5–22.8 | — | 5924–92 | — | — |
| Andrew MarshSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 14.14.4–21.6 | — | — | 4.41.1–6.7 | 5520–88 |
| Bryce UnderwoodELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 10.92.9–20.8 | 16277–243 | — | — | — |
| Bryson KuzdzalHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 9.43.1–15.8 | — | 4512–75 | — | — |
| JJ BuchananHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 9.13.1–14.0 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.2 | 4514–62 |
| Hogan Hansenbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 8.02.4–12.0 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.1 | 3610–52 |
| Zack MarshallELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.62.5–11.6 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.2 | 3611–53 |
| Tomas O'MearaHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 6.01.5–11.0 | — | 347–58 | — | — |
Penn State
- Rush yds
- 78
- Pass yds
- 154
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 51
- Rec yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 42
- Rush yds
- 33
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 32
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 32
- Rec yds
- 27
Michigan
- Pass yds
- 222
- Rush yds
- 59
- Receptions
- 4.4
- Rec yds
- 55
- Pass yds
- 162
- Rush yds
- 45
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 45
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 36
- Rush yds
- 34
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Fowler-NicolosiQB · MICH | Passing yards | 221.7 | 226.2 | 138.7–273.2 | Shop the line |
| Carson HansenRB · PSU | Rushing yards | 77.9 | 64.9 | 25.3–106.9 | Shop the line |
| Jordan MarshallRB · MICH | Rushing yards | 59.3 | 52.7 | 23.5–92.4 | Shop the line |
| Rocco BechtQB · PSU | Passing yards | 153.9 | 178.4 | 73.3–237.0 | Shop the line |
| Andrew MarshWR · MICH | Receiving yards | 54.7 | 45.3 | 19.6–87.5 | Shop the line |
| Bryce UnderwoodQB · MICH | Passing yards | 162.3 | 178.7 | 76.7–242.8 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 221.7
- Median
- 226.2
- 20th–80th
- 138.7–273.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 77.9
- Median
- 64.9
- 20th–80th
- 25.3–106.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 59.3
- Median
- 52.7
- 20th–80th
- 23.5–92.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 153.9
- Median
- 178.4
- 20th–80th
- 73.3–237.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 54.7
- Median
- 45.3
- 20th–80th
- 19.6–87.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 162.3
- Median
- 178.7
- 20th–80th
- 76.7–242.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated