Buffalo Bulls at Penn State Nittany Lions college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 19
- 12:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Penn State home
- Beaver Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 14 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Buffalo visits Penn State in Week 3.
Buffalo travels to Penn State at Beaver Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 14 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Carson Hansen (PSU), Rocco Becht (PSU), and Jasaiah Gathings (BUF).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
14 player distributions are available, led by Carson Hansen (PSU).
Venue context
Penn State is the designated home team at Beaver Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:00+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:00+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Buffalo pass protection vs Penn State pass rush
Buffalo's pass protection graded 69.9 in 2025 (38th of 136); Penn State's pass rush graded 67.4 (53rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Buffalo's pass protection. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Penn State pass protection vs Buffalo pass rush
Penn State's pass protection graded 74.5 in 2025 (10th of 136); Buffalo's pass rush graded 69.7 (20th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Buffalo receiving corps vs Penn State coverage
Buffalo's receiving corps graded 64.8 in 2025 (64th of 136); Penn State's coverage graded 65.2 (59th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Penn State receiving corps vs Buffalo coverage
Penn State's receiving corps graded 62.8 in 2025 (95th of 136); Buffalo's coverage graded 65.8 (49th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Buffalo's coverage.
Buffalo rush offense vs Penn State run defense
Buffalo's rush offense graded 69.3 in 2025 (126th of 136); Penn State's run defense graded 68.5 (51st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Penn State's run defense. Penn State's run defense returns only 22.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Penn State rush offense vs Buffalo run defense
Penn State's rush offense graded 83.7 in 2025 (6th of 136); Buffalo's run defense graded 69.8 (38th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Penn State's rush offense. Penn State's rush offense returns only 2.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Buffalo
4 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasaiah Gathingsbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 10.63.8–15.9 | — | — | 3.51.0–5.4 | 4312–62 |
| Terrance Shelton Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | RB | 9.12.7–14.0 | — | 3812–64 | — | — |
| Chance MorrowELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.12.4–13.4 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.1 | 3010–48 |
| Patrick Clacks IIIVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.82.1–10.6 | — | — | — | — |
Penn State
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson HansenELITE · Tier 5 | RB | 16.76.8–24.5 | — | 7825–107 | — | — |
| Rocco BechtSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | QB | 13.64.3–23.9 | 15473–237 | — | — | — |
| Chase SowellSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 10.43.8–16.7 | — | — | 3.71.0–5.7 | 5116–72 |
| Benjamin BrahmerHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 9.72.9–14.4 | — | — | — | 4313–63 |
| Brett EskildsenHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 9.02.7–14.0 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.5 | 4212–61 |
| James PeoplesVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.41.9–14.0 | — | 337–53 | — | — |
| Andrew RappleyeaVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.82.3–12.6 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 3210–48 |
| Gabe BurkleELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.72.3–11.5 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.5 | 3710–54 |
| Cam Wallacebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 5.91.5–10.6 | — | 325–55 | — | — |
| Koby Howardbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 5.91.8–9.7 | — | — | — | 277–37 |
Buffalo
- Receptions
- 3.5
- Rec yds
- 43
- Rush yds
- 38
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 30
Penn State
- Rush yds
- 78
- Pass yds
- 154
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 51
- Rec yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 42
- Rush yds
- 33
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 32
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 32
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson HansenRB · PSU | Rushing yards | 77.5 | 64.9 | 25.3–106.9 | Shop the line |
| Rocco BechtQB · PSU | Passing yards | 153.9 | 178.4 | 73.3–237.0 | Shop the line |
| Jasaiah GathingsWR · BUF | Receiving yards | 43.3 | 32.1 | 12.1–61.6 | Shop the line |
| Chase SowellWR · PSU | Receiving yards | 50.9 | 41.9 | 15.8–71.6 | Shop the line |
| Benjamin BrahmerTE · PSU | Receiving yards | 42.9 | 33.2 | 12.8–63.4 | Shop the line |
| Terrance Shelton Jr.RB · BUF | Rushing yards | 38.0 | 31.8 | 11.8–63.7 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 77.5
- Median
- 64.9
- 20th–80th
- 25.3–106.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 153.9
- Median
- 178.4
- 20th–80th
- 73.3–237.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 43.3
- Median
- 32.1
- 20th–80th
- 12.1–61.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 50.9
- Median
- 41.9
- 20th–80th
- 15.8–71.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 42.9
- Median
- 33.2
- 20th–80th
- 12.8–63.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 38.0
- Median
- 31.8
- 20th–80th
- 11.8–63.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated