North Texas Mean Green at Indiana Hoosiers college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 5
- 12:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Indiana home
- Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
- Captured market
- IU -40.5
- DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
- Player model
- 18 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Indiana carries the early number into Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN).
North Texas travels to Indiana at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN). The captured market lists Indiana as a 40.5-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 18 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Josh Hoover (IU), Turbo Richard (IU), and Lee Beebe Jr. (IU).
Market frame
Indiana is the captured favorite by 40.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
18 player distributions are available, led by Josh Hoover (IU).
Venue context
Indiana is the designated home team at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN).
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00DraftKings snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
North Texas pass protection vs Indiana pass rush
North Texas's pass protection graded 73.9 in 2025 (13th of 136); Indiana's pass rush graded 68.9 (29th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for North Texas's pass protection. North Texas's pass protection returns only 3.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Indiana pass protection vs North Texas pass rush
Indiana's pass protection graded 72.9 in 2025 (18th of 136); North Texas's pass rush graded 64.4 (79th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Indiana's pass protection.
North Texas receiving corps vs Indiana coverage
North Texas's receiving corps graded 70.0 in 2025 (9th of 136); Indiana's coverage graded 72.6 (4th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Indiana receiving corps vs North Texas coverage
Indiana's receiving corps graded 74.2 in 2025 (2nd of 136); North Texas's coverage graded 70.2 (18th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Indiana's receiving corps. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
North Texas rush offense vs Indiana run defense
North Texas's rush offense graded 83.4 in 2025 (7th of 136); Indiana's run defense graded 75.1 (5th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Indiana rush offense vs North Texas run defense
Indiana's rush offense graded 81.4 in 2025 (13th of 136); North Texas's run defense graded 67.3 (61st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Indiana's rush offense. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
North Texas
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corri MillinerSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 9.43.2–14.9 | — | — | 3.91.0–6.2 | 4216–72 |
| Jahiem WhiteSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 8.42.8–14.3 | — | 379–70 | 1.70.8–3.2 | — |
| Tayven JacksonSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 7.61.9–15.1 | 12482–206 | — | — | — |
| Justin StevensonHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 5.51.9–9.1 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.2 | 248–44 |
| Dalton CarnesSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 4.71.6–7.0 | — | — | — | 226–36 |
| Andy JeanVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 4.11.4–6.5 | — | — | 2.31.0–3.7 | 195–33 |
| Colin PageVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 4.10.9–6.7 | — | 253–47 | — | — |
| Josiah MartinVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 4.01.2–6.4 | — | — | 2.21.0–3.6 | — |
| Connor VaughnVOLATILE · Tier 5 | TE | 4.01.1–6.2 | — | — | — | — |
Indiana
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hooverbalanced · Tier 4 | QB | 22.49.3–29.0 | 250173–293 | — | — | — |
| Turbo Richardbalanced · Tier 5 | RB | 15.16.5–22.7 | — | 7124–102 | 1.50.8–3.0 | — |
| Lee Beebe Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | RB | 14.45.5–21.4 | — | 6423–100 | — | — |
| Nick MarshVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 12.74.1–18.1 | — | — | 4.01.1–5.8 | 5218–81 |
| Charlie BeckerVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 13.13.9–20.1 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.3 | 5115–83 |
| Shazz PrestonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 10.93.5–16.2 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.7 | 4915–72 |
| Grant Wilsonbalanced · Tier 6 | QB | 11.52.0–20.2 | 13035–236 | — | — | — |
| Tyler MorrisVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 9.93.1–15.1 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.6 | 3711–61 |
| Khobie MartinVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.22.2–12.8 | — | 3810–65 | — | — |
North Texas
- Receptions
- 3.9
- Rec yds
- 42
- Rush yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 1.7
- Pass yds
- 124
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 24
- Rec yds
- 22
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rec yds
- 19
- Rush yds
- 25
- Receptions
- 2.2
Indiana
- Pass yds
- 250
- Rush yds
- 71
- Receptions
- 1.5
- Rush yds
- 64
- Receptions
- 4.0
- Rec yds
- 52
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 51
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 49
- Pass yds
- 130
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 38
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh HooverQB · IU | Passing yards | 249.6 | 244.5 | 173.3–293.0 | Shop the line |
| Turbo RichardRB · IU | Rushing yards | 71.4 | 56.1 | 24.1–101.5 | Shop the line |
| Lee Beebe Jr.RB · IU | Rushing yards | 63.8 | 54.8 | 22.8–100.0 | Shop the line |
| Nick MarshWR · IU | Receiving yards | 52.4 | 44.3 | 17.5–80.9 | Shop the line |
| Charlie BeckerWR · IU | Receiving yards | 50.8 | 39.8 | 15.4–82.5 | Shop the line |
| Shazz PrestonWR · IU | Receiving yards | 48.7 | 38.4 | 14.9–72.0 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 249.6
- Median
- 244.5
- 20th–80th
- 173.3–293.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 71.4
- Median
- 56.1
- 20th–80th
- 24.1–101.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 63.8
- Median
- 54.8
- 20th–80th
- 22.8–100.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 52.4
- Median
- 44.3
- 20th–80th
- 17.5–80.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 50.8
- Median
- 39.8
- 20th–80th
- 15.4–82.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 48.7
- Median
- 38.4
- 20th–80th
- 14.9–72.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated