North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Cavaliers college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 21
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Virginia home
- Scott Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 19 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
North Carolina visits Virginia in Week 12.
North Carolina travels to Virginia at Scott Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 19 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Jekail Middlebrook (UVA), Jordan Shipp (UNC), and Jacquon Gibson (UVA).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
19 player distributions are available, led by Jekail Middlebrook (UVA).
Venue context
Virginia is the designated home team at Scott Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:27+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:27+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
North Carolina pass protection vs Virginia pass rush
North Carolina's pass protection graded 67.7 in 2025 (54th of 136); Virginia's pass rush graded 68.2 (36th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Virginia's pass rush.
Virginia pass protection vs North Carolina pass rush
Virginia's pass protection graded 67.5 in 2025 (56th of 136); North Carolina's pass rush graded 67.9 (41st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for North Carolina's pass rush.
North Carolina receiving corps vs Virginia coverage
North Carolina's receiving corps graded 63.0 in 2025 (91st of 136); Virginia's coverage graded 69.6 (21st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Virginia's coverage.
Virginia receiving corps vs North Carolina coverage
Virginia's receiving corps graded 66.1 in 2025 (45th of 136); North Carolina's coverage graded 63.6 (75th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Virginia's receiving corps. Virginia's receiving corps returns only 23.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
North Carolina rush offense vs Virginia run defense
North Carolina's rush offense graded 70.8 in 2025 (112th of 136); Virginia's run defense graded 70.2 (35th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Virginia's run defense.
Virginia rush offense vs North Carolina run defense
Virginia's rush offense graded 74.8 in 2025 (74th of 136); North Carolina's run defense graded 68.3 (53rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for North Carolina's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
North Carolina
7 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan ShippHIGH CEILING · Tier 4 | WR | 14.94.8–22.3 | — | — | 4.81.0–6.9 | 5820–86 |
| Trech KekahunaVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.12.4–12.7 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.6 | 399–56 |
| Miles O'NeillSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 8.11.1–15.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Madrid TuckerSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.32.7–12.5 | — | — | 3.11.0–5.1 | 3310–51 |
| Demon JuneELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.31.9–13.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamin Hallbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.61.5–10.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Nathan LeacockHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.6–10.1 | — | — | — | 266–34 |
Virginia
12 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jekail Middlebrookbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 15.56.1–24.3 | — | 6719–94 | 2.90.9–4.6 | 310–53 |
| Jacquon Gibsonbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 12.85.0–21.2 | — | — | 4.91.1–7.8 | 5718–84 |
| Beau PribulaELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 13.03.6–24.0 | 11918–210 | 335–56 | — | — |
| Da'Shawn MartinELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 10.33.9–17.2 | — | — | 3.71.0–5.7 | 5416–75 |
| Rico Flores Jr.SAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 8.73.0–13.1 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.2 | 4311–60 |
| Peyton Lewisbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 8.62.3–14.0 | — | 356–55 | — | — |
| Tyson DavisELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 7.92.6–12.1 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.5 | 4110–58 |
| Solomon BeebeSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 7.42.1–12.2 | — | 357–53 | 1.60.0–3.1 | — |
| Xavier Brownbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.21.5–12.2 | — | 347–55 | — | — |
| Dakota TwittyELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.22.1–11.3 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.0 | 329–46 |
| Kameron CourtneyHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.72.1–10.6 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.0 | 318–44 |
| John RogersSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | TE | 5.71.7–9.4 | — | — | — | 267–34 |
North Carolina
- Receptions
- 4.8
- Rec yds
- 58
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 26
Virginia
- Rush yds
- 67
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 4.9
- Rec yds
- 57
- Pass yds
- 119
- Rush yds
- 33
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 54
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 43
- Rush yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 41
- Rush yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 1.6
- Rush yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 32
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jekail MiddlebrookRB · UVA | Rushing yards | 67.0 | 55.4 | 18.8–94.4 | Shop the line |
| Jordan ShippWR · UNC | Receiving yards | 58.2 | 45.4 | 19.6–85.5 | Shop the line |
| Jacquon GibsonWR · UVA | Receiving yards | 56.6 | 44.5 | 17.8–84.1 | Shop the line |
| Beau PribulaQB · UVA | Passing yards | 118.9 | 129.3 | 18.0–209.7 | Shop the line |
| Da'Shawn MartinWR · UVA | Receiving yards | 53.9 | 39.5 | 15.7–75.4 | Shop the line |
| Rico Flores Jr.WR · UVA | Receiving yards | 42.9 | 31.1 | 11.1–60.1 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 67.0
- Median
- 55.4
- 20th–80th
- 18.8–94.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 58.2
- Median
- 45.4
- 20th–80th
- 19.6–85.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 56.6
- Median
- 44.5
- 20th–80th
- 17.8–84.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 118.9
- Median
- 129.3
- 20th–80th
- 18.0–209.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 53.9
- Median
- 39.5
- 20th–80th
- 15.7–75.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 42.9
- Median
- 31.1
- 20th–80th
- 11.1–60.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated