North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 17
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Duke home
- Wallace Wade Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 16 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
North Carolina visits Duke in Week 7.
North Carolina travels to Duke at Wallace Wade Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 16 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Nate Sheppard (DUKE), Jordan Shipp (UNC), and CJ Campbell Jr. (DUKE).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
16 player distributions are available, led by Nate Sheppard (DUKE).
Venue context
Duke is the designated home team at Wallace Wade Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:09+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:09+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
North Carolina pass protection vs Duke pass rush
North Carolina's pass protection graded 67.7 in 2025 (54th of 136); Duke's pass rush graded 64.9 (74th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for North Carolina's pass protection. North Carolina's pass protection returns only 12.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Duke pass protection vs North Carolina pass rush
Duke's pass protection graded 69.9 in 2025 (37th of 136); North Carolina's pass rush graded 67.9 (41st). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
North Carolina receiving corps vs Duke coverage
North Carolina's receiving corps graded 63.0 in 2025 (91st of 136); Duke's coverage graded 60.2 (110th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for North Carolina's receiving corps.
Duke receiving corps vs North Carolina coverage
Duke's receiving corps graded 69.0 in 2025 (15th of 136); North Carolina's coverage graded 63.6 (75th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Duke's receiving corps.
North Carolina rush offense vs Duke run defense
North Carolina's rush offense graded 70.8 in 2025 (112th of 136); Duke's run defense graded 65.7 (84th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Duke's run defense.
Duke rush offense vs North Carolina run defense
Duke's rush offense graded 80.0 in 2025 (23rd of 136); North Carolina's run defense graded 68.3 (53rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Duke's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
North Carolina
7 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan ShippELITE · Tier 4 | WR | 14.94.8–22.3 | — | — | 4.81.0–6.9 | 5820–86 |
| Trech KekahunaVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.12.4–12.7 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.6 | 399–56 |
| Miles O'NeillELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 8.11.1–15.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Madrid TuckerSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.32.7–12.5 | — | — | 3.11.0–5.1 | 3310–51 |
| Demon JuneELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.31.9–13.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamin Hallbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.61.5–10.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Nathan LeacockHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.6–10.1 | — | — | — | 266–34 |
Duke
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate SheppardSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | RB | 15.96.4–24.7 | — | 7222–104 | 2.30.9–4.1 | 190–35 |
| CJ Campbell Jr.ELITE · Tier 5 | RB | 13.14.2–21.1 | — | 5514–78 | — | 200–40 |
| Jeremiah HasleyELITE · Tier 1 | TE | 11.74.0–19.0 | — | — | 3.71.0–5.6 | 4817–68 |
| Javen Nicholasbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 13.54.0–22.3 | — | — | 4.51.0–6.7 | 5620–89 |
| Walker EgetELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 10.42.4–20.2 | 16747–219 | — | — | — |
| Ari PatuHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 7.71.0–16.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Nate KuriskyHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 6.72.0–10.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Jake TaylorELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 6.11.8–10.3 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.8 | 277–32 |
| Jayden MooreVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.7–9.6 | — | — | 2.21.0–3.0 | — |
North Carolina
- Receptions
- 4.8
- Rec yds
- 58
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 26
Duke
- Rush yds
- 72
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rec yds
- 19
- Rush yds
- 55
- Rec yds
- 20
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 48
- Receptions
- 4.5
- Rec yds
- 56
- Pass yds
- 167
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 2.2
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate SheppardRB · DUKE | Rushing yards | 71.7 | 61.2 | 22.3–103.6 | Shop the line |
| Jordan ShippWR · UNC | Receiving yards | 58.2 | 45.4 | 19.6–85.5 | Shop the line |
| CJ Campbell Jr.RB · DUKE | Rushing yards | 55.4 | 45.1 | 14.3–78.2 | Shop the line |
| Jeremiah HasleyTE · DUKE | Receiving yards | 47.8 | 38.5 | 16.9–68.3 | Shop the line |
| Javen NicholasWR · DUKE | Receiving yards | 55.5 | 42.4 | 20.2–88.8 | Shop the line |
| Walker EgetQB · DUKE | Passing yards | 166.8 | 167.4 | 47.0–218.6 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 71.7
- Median
- 61.2
- 20th–80th
- 22.3–103.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 58.2
- Median
- 45.4
- 20th–80th
- 19.6–85.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 55.4
- Median
- 45.1
- 20th–80th
- 14.3–78.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 47.8
- Median
- 38.5
- 20th–80th
- 16.9–68.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 55.5
- Median
- 42.4
- 20th–80th
- 20.2–88.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 166.8
- Median
- 167.4
- 20th–80th
- 47.0–218.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated