Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Fri, Oct 9
- 7:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Louisville home
- L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 22 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Florida State visits Louisville in Week 6.
Florida State travels to Louisville at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 22 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Ashton Daniels (FSU), Lincoln Kienholz (LOU), and Isaac Brown (LOU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
22 player distributions are available, led by Ashton Daniels (FSU).
Venue context
Louisville is the designated home team at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:05+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:05+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Florida State pass protection vs Louisville pass rush
Florida State's pass protection graded 73.1 in 2025 (17th of 136); Louisville's pass rush graded 76.0 (2nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Louisville's pass rush.
Louisville pass protection vs Florida State pass rush
Louisville's pass protection graded 68.1 in 2025 (51st of 136); Florida State's pass rush graded 62.3 (107th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Louisville's pass protection.
Florida State receiving corps vs Louisville coverage
Florida State's receiving corps graded 66.0 in 2025 (46th of 136); Louisville's coverage graded 70.9 (13th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Louisville's coverage.
Louisville receiving corps vs Florida State coverage
Louisville's receiving corps graded 66.0 in 2025 (47th of 136); Florida State's coverage graded 61.8 (98th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Louisville's receiving corps.
Florida State rush offense vs Louisville run defense
Florida State's rush offense graded 76.0 in 2025 (61st of 136); Louisville's run defense graded 70.3 (31st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Louisville's run defense.
Louisville rush offense vs Florida State run defense
Louisville's rush offense graded 79.6 in 2025 (25th of 136); Florida State's run defense graded 68.4 (52nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Louisville's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Florida State
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton DanielsHIGH CEILING · Tier 2 | QB | 21.08.5–30.2 | 208142–264 | 6313–93 | — | — |
| Quintrevion WisnerVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 13.15.2–20.9 | — | 7020–101 | — | — |
| Duce RobinsonELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 13.44.4–21.1 | — | — | 4.31.0–6.2 | 5824–83 |
| Gemari SandsELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 10.33.3–16.2 | — | 378–60 | 2.70.9–3.9 | 170–28 |
| Desirrio Rilesbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 9.33.0–14.5 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.9 | 4314–60 |
| Micahi DanzyHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 9.23.0–15.1 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.3 | 4413–65 |
| Jayvan BoggsELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 7.72.4–11.9 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.2 | 3711–55 |
| Samuel Singleton Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.41.3–11.2 | — | 326–56 | — | — |
| Landen ThomasVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 6.82.0–10.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Ousmane KromahHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 6.61.4–11.1 | — | 326–52 | — | — |
Louisville
12 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln Kienholzbalanced · Tier 3 | QB | 17.26.3–25.3 | 213129–261 | — | — | — |
| Isaac Brownbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 14.15.4–22.7 | — | 6226–101 | — | — |
| Keyjuan BrownVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 14.24.4–21.9 | — | 6522–94 | — | — |
| Tre RichardsonELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 13.94.1–21.1 | — | — | 4.21.0–6.2 | 6122–90 |
| Brody FoleyELITE · Tier 2 | TE | 12.74.3–20.9 | — | — | 4.21.1–6.4 | 5518–81 |
| Marquise DavisHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 10.23.6–18.1 | — | 5212–83 | — | — |
| Lawayne McCoybalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 10.33.6–15.3 | — | — | 3.21.0–5.2 | 4715–65 |
| Braxton JenningsHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 10.63.1–17.0 | — | 5416–83 | — | — |
| Jaleel Skinnerbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 7.02.1–11.1 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | — |
| TreyShun Hurrybalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.91.9–10.8 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.8 | 308–43 |
| Justyn Reidbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 6.51.8–10.2 | — | — | — | — |
| Kris Hughesbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.7–10.0 | — | — | — | 277–32 |
Florida State
- Pass yds
- 208
- Rush yds
- 63
- Rush yds
- 70
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 58
- Rush yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 17
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 44
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 32
- Rush yds
- 32
Louisville
- Pass yds
- 213
- Rush yds
- 62
- Rush yds
- 65
- Receptions
- 4.2
- Rec yds
- 61
- Receptions
- 4.2
- Rec yds
- 55
- Rush yds
- 52
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 47
- Rush yds
- 54
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 30
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton DanielsQB · FSU | Passing yards | 207.8 | 202.6 | 142.4–264.2 | Shop the line |
| Lincoln KienholzQB · LOU | Passing yards | 213.3 | 207.7 | 128.7–260.9 | Shop the line |
| Isaac BrownRB · LOU | Rushing yards | 62.3 | 53.6 | 25.7–101.0 | Shop the line |
| Quintrevion WisnerRB · FSU | Rushing yards | 69.7 | 54.0 | 19.6–100.9 | Shop the line |
| Keyjuan BrownRB · LOU | Rushing yards | 65.1 | 52.7 | 21.5–94.2 | Shop the line |
| Duce RobinsonWR · FSU | Receiving yards | 57.5 | 46.7 | 23.7–82.6 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 207.8
- Median
- 202.6
- 20th–80th
- 142.4–264.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 213.3
- Median
- 207.7
- 20th–80th
- 128.7–260.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 62.3
- Median
- 53.6
- 20th–80th
- 25.7–101.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 69.7
- Median
- 54.0
- 20th–80th
- 19.6–100.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 65.1
- Median
- 52.7
- 20th–80th
- 21.5–94.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 57.5
- Median
- 46.7
- 20th–80th
- 23.7–82.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated