Iowa State Cyclones at UCF Knights college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Fri, Nov 20
- 6:00 PM EST
- Venue
- UCF home
- Acrisure Bounce House
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 18 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Iowa State visits UCF in Week 12.
Iowa State travels to UCF at Acrisure Bounce House. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 18 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Jaylen Raynor (ISU), Keyone Jenkins (UCF), and Alonza Barnett III (UCF).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
18 player distributions are available, led by Jaylen Raynor (ISU).
Venue context
UCF is the designated home team at Acrisure Bounce House.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:27+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:27+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Iowa State pass protection vs UCF pass rush
Iowa State's pass protection graded 61.8 in 2025 (97th of 136); UCF's pass rush graded 68.7 (30th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UCF's pass rush.
UCF pass protection vs Iowa State pass rush
UCF's pass protection graded 69.0 in 2025 (47th of 136); Iowa State's pass rush graded 60.1 (133rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UCF's pass protection.
Iowa State receiving corps vs UCF coverage
Iowa State's receiving corps graded 64.6 in 2025 (67th of 136); UCF's coverage graded 68.3 (27th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UCF's coverage.
UCF receiving corps vs Iowa State coverage
UCF's receiving corps graded 60.9 in 2025 (114th of 136); Iowa State's coverage graded 65.5 (54th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Iowa State's coverage. Iowa State's coverage returns only 15.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Iowa State rush offense vs UCF run defense
Iowa State's rush offense graded 79.1 in 2025 (29th of 136); UCF's run defense graded 70.3 (32nd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
UCF rush offense vs Iowa State run defense
UCF's rush offense graded 75.1 in 2025 (71st of 136); Iowa State's run defense graded 65.5 (86th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for UCF's rush offense. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Iowa State
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen RaynorSAFE FLOOR · Tier 4 | QB | 18.79.6–29.2 | 215156–282 | 24-2–44 | — | — |
| Zane FloresSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | QB | 11.34.0–20.6 | 15444–236 | — | — | — |
| Cameron PettawayVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 9.22.9–16.4 | — | 4014–66 | — | — |
| Tyler Fortenberrybalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 9.23.0–15.0 | — | — | 3.21.0–5.1 | 3613–57 |
| Omari HayesSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 8.83.0–12.6 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.0 | 4412–59 |
| Evan BoydSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 7.22.0–11.0 | — | — | — | 3410–51 |
| Dominic OverbyVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.92.1–11.1 | — | — | — | 298–42 |
| Carter PabstSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.31.9–10.4 | — | — | — | 298–42 |
| Aiden FloraVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.01.2–10.8 | — | — | — | — |
UCF
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyone JenkinsVOLATILE · Tier 4 | QB | 18.16.0–26.0 | 218132–275 | — | — | — |
| Alonza Barnett IIIELITE · Tier 4 | QB | 17.06.0–28.3 | 174100–232 | 315–66 | — | — |
| Dylan WadeELITE · Tier 1 | TE | 13.44.3–20.4 | — | — | 4.11.0–5.9 | 5518–82 |
| Duane Thomas Jr.HIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 10.93.6–17.5 | — | — | 4.01.1–6.2 | 5015–68 |
| Jonathan BibbsVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.32.6–13.7 | — | — | 3.01.1–4.6 | 4012–60 |
| Waden Charlesbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 8.92.8–14.6 | — | — | 3.21.0–5.0 | 3912–59 |
| Agyeman Addaebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.81.8–14.1 | — | — | 2.00.8–3.6 | 190–25 |
| Duke WatsonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.11.7–11.8 | — | 346–54 | — | — |
| Caleb RollersonHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 5.91.7–10.0 | — | — | — | 288–40 |
Iowa State
- Pass yds
- 215
- Rush yds
- 24
- Pass yds
- 154
- Rush yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 44
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 29
- Rec yds
- 29
UCF
- Pass yds
- 218
- Pass yds
- 174
- Rush yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 4.1
- Rec yds
- 55
- Receptions
- 4.0
- Rec yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 2.0
- Rec yds
- 19
- Rush yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 28
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen RaynorQB · ISU | Passing yards | 215.4 | 222.9 | 155.8–281.7 | Shop the line |
| Keyone JenkinsQB · UCF | Passing yards | 217.9 | 210.5 | 132.3–274.5 | Shop the line |
| Alonza Barnett IIIQB · UCF | Passing yards | 173.5 | 186.6 | 100.2–232.0 | Shop the line |
| Zane FloresQB · ISU | Passing yards | 154.0 | 170.2 | 44.3–236.1 | Shop the line |
| Dylan WadeTE · UCF | Receiving yards | 54.9 | 43.0 | 17.5–82.1 | Shop the line |
| Duane Thomas Jr.WR · UCF | Receiving yards | 50.0 | 35.3 | 15.0–67.6 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 215.4
- Median
- 222.9
- 20th–80th
- 155.8–281.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 217.9
- Median
- 210.5
- 20th–80th
- 132.3–274.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 173.5
- Median
- 186.6
- 20th–80th
- 100.2–232.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 154.0
- Median
- 170.2
- 20th–80th
- 44.3–236.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 54.9
- Median
- 43.0
- 20th–80th
- 17.5–82.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 50.0
- Median
- 35.3
- 20th–80th
- 15.0–67.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated