Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14
- Time TBA
- Venue
- TCU home
- Amon G. Carter Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 18 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Kansas State visits TCU in Week 11.
Kansas State travels to TCU at Amon G. Carter Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 18 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Joe Jackson (KSU), Avery Johnson (KSU), and Jeremy Payne (TCU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
18 player distributions are available, led by Joe Jackson (KSU).
Venue context
TCU is the designated home team at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:23+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:23+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Kansas State pass protection vs TCU pass rush
Kansas State's pass protection graded 68.8 in 2025 (48th of 136); TCU's pass rush graded 62.2 (108th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Kansas State's pass protection.
TCU pass protection vs Kansas State pass rush
TCU's pass protection graded 71.5 in 2025 (23rd of 136); Kansas State's pass rush graded 63.6 (89th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for TCU's pass protection.
Kansas State receiving corps vs TCU coverage
Kansas State's receiving corps graded 63.1 in 2025 (88th of 136); TCU's coverage graded 64.4 (71st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for TCU's coverage.
TCU receiving corps vs Kansas State coverage
TCU's receiving corps graded 69.3 in 2025 (11th of 136); Kansas State's coverage graded 64.2 (73rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for TCU's receiving corps.
Kansas State rush offense vs TCU run defense
Kansas State's rush offense graded 70.3 in 2025 (116th of 136); TCU's run defense graded 76.3 (2nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for TCU's run defense.
TCU rush offense vs Kansas State run defense
TCU's rush offense graded 75.5 in 2025 (65th of 136); Kansas State's run defense graded 67.0 (63rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Kansas State
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe JacksonELITE · Tier 3 | RB | 17.27.3–24.6 | — | 7334–112 | — | — |
| Avery JohnsonELITE · Tier 5 | QB | 15.15.0–26.8 | 15677–231 | 377–62 | — | — |
| Rodney Fields Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 5 | RB | 14.35.1–22.9 | — | 6518–96 | 2.20.9–3.8 | 200–35 |
| Garrett OakleyELITE · Tier 1 | TE | 13.54.1–20.9 | — | — | 4.11.0–6.0 | 5117–74 |
| Jaron TibbsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 10.43.7–15.9 | — | — | 3.71.0–5.6 | 5016–71 |
| Josh Manningbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 7.12.2–11.4 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.0 | 349–49 |
| Brandon WhiteHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 7.82.6–12.1 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.8 | 3710–55 |
| Izaiah WilliamsELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 7.32.1–12.7 | — | — | 2.31.0–3.5 | 298–44 |
| Jay Harrisbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 6.41.2–11.1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sterling LockettSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.02.0–10.0 | — | — | — | 297–45 |
TCU
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy PayneVOLATILE · Tier 5 | RB | 14.45.1–21.7 | — | 7024–105 | — | 150–21 |
| Jordan Dwyerbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 11.43.8–19.1 | — | — | 3.91.0–5.9 | 4917–75 |
| Jeremy ScottSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 10.13.4–17.8 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.2 | 5014–73 |
| Ed SmallHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 7.12.2–12.1 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.3 | 349–52 |
| Jon Denmanbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.01.7–11.8 | — | 344–55 | — | — |
| Major EverhartHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 6.51.8–10.6 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.1 | 318–39 |
| Lafayette KaiuwayVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 5.91.5–9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Ka'Morreun Pimptonbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 6.11.6–10.3 | — | — | — | 276–31 |
Kansas State
- Rush yds
- 73
- Pass yds
- 156
- Rush yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 65
- Receptions
- 2.2
- Rec yds
- 20
- Receptions
- 4.1
- Rec yds
- 51
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rec yds
- 29
- Rec yds
- 29
TCU
- Rush yds
- 70
- Rec yds
- 15
- Receptions
- 3.9
- Rec yds
- 49
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rush yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe JacksonRB · KSU | Rushing yards | 73.3 | 67.6 | 34.4–112.4 | Shop the line |
| Avery JohnsonQB · KSU | Passing yards | 155.8 | 164.7 | 76.6–231.4 | Shop the line |
| Jeremy PayneRB · TCU | Rushing yards | 69.6 | 61.9 | 23.7–105.0 | Shop the line |
| Rodney Fields Jr.RB · KSU | Rushing yards | 64.7 | 58.8 | 17.8–95.9 | Shop the line |
| Garrett OakleyTE · KSU | Receiving yards | 50.7 | 40.5 | 16.5–74.3 | Shop the line |
| Jordan DwyerWR · TCU | Receiving yards | 49.3 | 38.1 | 16.9–75.3 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 73.3
- Median
- 67.6
- 20th–80th
- 34.4–112.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 155.8
- Median
- 164.7
- 20th–80th
- 76.6–231.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 69.6
- Median
- 61.9
- 20th–80th
- 23.7–105.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 64.7
- Median
- 58.8
- 20th–80th
- 17.8–95.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 50.7
- Median
- 40.5
- 20th–80th
- 16.5–74.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 49.3
- Median
- 38.1
- 20th–80th
- 16.9–75.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated