UCF Knights at Oklahoma State Cowboys college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 10
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Oklahoma State home
- Boone Pickens Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 22 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
UCF visits Oklahoma State in Week 6.
UCF travels to Oklahoma State at Boone Pickens Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 22 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Keyone Jenkins (UCF), Drew Mestemaker (OKST), and Caleb Hawkins (OKST).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
22 player distributions are available, led by Keyone Jenkins (UCF).
Venue context
Oklahoma State is the designated home team at Boone Pickens Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:05+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:05+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
UCF pass protection vs Oklahoma State pass rush
UCF's pass protection graded 69.0 in 2025 (47th of 136); Oklahoma State's pass rush graded 61.8 (113th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UCF's pass protection.
Oklahoma State pass protection vs UCF pass rush
Oklahoma State's pass protection graded 69.7 in 2025 (39th of 136); UCF's pass rush graded 68.7 (30th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
UCF receiving corps vs Oklahoma State coverage
UCF's receiving corps graded 60.9 in 2025 (114th of 136); Oklahoma State's coverage graded 57.9 (125th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Oklahoma State receiving corps vs UCF coverage
Oklahoma State's receiving corps graded 59.4 in 2025 (131st of 136); UCF's coverage graded 68.3 (27th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UCF's coverage.
UCF rush offense vs Oklahoma State run defense
UCF's rush offense graded 75.1 in 2025 (71st of 136); Oklahoma State's run defense graded 65.7 (83rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Oklahoma State rush offense vs UCF run defense
Oklahoma State's rush offense graded 68.8 in 2025 (127th of 136); UCF's run defense graded 70.3 (32nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UCF's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
UCF
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyone JenkinsVOLATILE · Tier 2 | QB | 18.76.0–26.0 | 218132–275 | — | — | — |
| Alonza Barnett IIIELITE · Tier 3 | QB | 17.16.0–28.3 | 174100–232 | 315–66 | — | — |
| Dylan WadeELITE · Tier 1 | TE | 13.64.3–20.4 | — | — | 4.11.0–5.9 | 5518–82 |
| Duane Thomas Jr.HIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 10.93.5–17.5 | — | — | 4.01.1–6.2 | 5015–68 |
| Jonathan BibbsVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.32.6–13.7 | — | — | 3.01.1–4.6 | 4012–60 |
| Waden CharlesHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 8.92.8–14.6 | — | — | 3.21.0–5.0 | 3912–59 |
| Agyeman AddaeHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 7.81.8–14.1 | — | — | 2.00.8–3.6 | 190–25 |
| Duke WatsonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.11.7–11.8 | — | 346–54 | — | — |
| Caleb RollersonHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 5.91.7–10.0 | — | — | — | 288–40 |
Oklahoma State
13 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew MestemakerHIGH CEILING · Tier 3 | QB | 18.46.8–27.0 | 217147–287 | — | — | — |
| Caleb HawkinsELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 17.16.1–23.0 | — | 7233–106 | — | 180–27 |
| Wyatt YoungELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 13.94.4–21.1 | — | — | 4.31.0–6.6 | 6224–91 |
| Grant JordanELITE · Tier 5 | QB | 11.52.7–21.7 | 13916–239 | 25-2–50 | — | — |
| Israel Polkbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 10.93.9–18.0 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.0 | 5314–71 |
| Miles ColemanSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 10.43.8–16.1 | — | — | 3.41.0–5.6 | 4614–67 |
| Rodney Harris IIELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 9.53.2–14.2 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.2 | 4715–68 |
| Donovan GreenELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 8.92.7–13.9 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.9 | 3711–54 |
| Chris BarnesHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | WR | 8.73.0–14.5 | — | 13-0–24 | 3.21.0–5.3 | 409–58 |
| Ayo AdeyiHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | RB | 8.81.5–14.0 | — | 409–65 | — | — |
| Terrence Lewisbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 6.51.8–10.7 | — | — | — | 277–38 |
| Oscar HammondVOLATILE · Tier 6 | TE | 6.51.9–10.2 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 298–34 |
| Justin BowickSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.72.0–10.6 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.0 | 349–50 |
UCF
- Pass yds
- 218
- Pass yds
- 174
- Rush yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 4.1
- Rec yds
- 55
- Receptions
- 4.0
- Rec yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 2.0
- Rec yds
- 19
- Rush yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 28
Oklahoma State
- Pass yds
- 217
- Rush yds
- 72
- Rec yds
- 18
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 62
- Pass yds
- 139
- Rush yds
- 25
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 53
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 46
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 47
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 37
- Rush yds
- 13
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 40
- Rush yds
- 40
- Rec yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 29
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 34
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyone JenkinsQB · UCF | Passing yards | 217.9 | 210.5 | 132.3–274.5 | Shop the line |
| Drew MestemakerQB · OKST | Passing yards | 216.8 | 211.6 | 147.3–286.5 | Shop the line |
| Caleb HawkinsRB · OKST | Rushing yards | 71.5 | 60.4 | 32.7–105.7 | Shop the line |
| Alonza Barnett IIIQB · UCF | Passing yards | 173.5 | 186.6 | 100.2–232.0 | Shop the line |
| Wyatt YoungWR · OKST | Receiving yards | 62.2 | 44.5 | 24.0–90.9 | Shop the line |
| Dylan WadeTE · UCF | Receiving yards | 54.9 | 43.0 | 17.5–82.1 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 217.9
- Median
- 210.5
- 20th–80th
- 132.3–274.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 216.8
- Median
- 211.6
- 20th–80th
- 147.3–286.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 71.5
- Median
- 60.4
- 20th–80th
- 32.7–105.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 173.5
- Median
- 186.6
- 20th–80th
- 100.2–232.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 62.2
- Median
- 44.5
- 20th–80th
- 24.0–90.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 54.9
- Median
- 43.0
- 20th–80th
- 17.5–82.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated