TCU Horned Frogs at UCF Knights college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 26
- Time TBA
- Venue
- UCF home
- Acrisure Bounce House
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 17 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
TCU visits UCF in Week 4.
TCU travels to UCF at Acrisure Bounce House. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 17 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Keyone Jenkins (UCF), Alonza Barnett III (UCF), and Jeremy Payne (TCU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
17 player distributions are available, led by Keyone Jenkins (UCF).
Venue context
UCF is the designated home team at Acrisure Bounce House.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
TCU pass protection vs UCF pass rush
TCU's pass protection graded 71.5 in 2025 (23rd of 136); UCF's pass rush graded 68.7 (30th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
UCF pass protection vs TCU pass rush
UCF's pass protection graded 69.0 in 2025 (47th of 136); TCU's pass rush graded 62.2 (108th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for UCF's pass protection.
TCU receiving corps vs UCF coverage
TCU's receiving corps graded 69.3 in 2025 (11th of 136); UCF's coverage graded 68.3 (27th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for TCU's receiving corps.
UCF receiving corps vs TCU coverage
UCF's receiving corps graded 60.9 in 2025 (114th of 136); TCU's coverage graded 64.4 (71st). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for TCU's coverage.
TCU rush offense vs UCF run defense
TCU's rush offense graded 75.5 in 2025 (65th of 136); UCF's run defense graded 70.3 (32nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for UCF's run defense.
UCF rush offense vs TCU run defense
UCF's rush offense graded 75.1 in 2025 (71st of 136); TCU's run defense graded 76.3 (2nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for TCU's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
TCU
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy PayneVOLATILE · Tier 5 | RB | 14.95.1–21.7 | — | 7024–105 | — | 150–21 |
| Jordan Dwyerbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 11.43.8–19.1 | — | — | 3.91.0–5.9 | 4917–75 |
| Jeremy ScottSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 10.13.4–17.8 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.2 | 5014–73 |
| Ed SmallHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 7.12.2–12.1 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.3 | 349–52 |
| Jon Denmanbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.01.7–11.8 | — | 344–55 | — | — |
| Major EverhartHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 6.51.8–10.6 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.1 | 318–39 |
| Lafayette Kaiuwaybalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 5.91.5–9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Ka'Morreun PimptonHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 6.11.6–10.3 | — | — | — | 276–31 |
UCF
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyone JenkinsVOLATILE · Tier 4 | QB | 18.16.0–26.0 | 218132–275 | — | — | — |
| Alonza Barnett IIIELITE · Tier 4 | QB | 17.06.0–28.3 | 174100–232 | 315–66 | — | — |
| Dylan WadeELITE · Tier 1 | TE | 13.44.3–20.4 | — | — | 4.11.0–5.9 | 5518–82 |
| Duane Thomas Jr.HIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 10.93.6–17.5 | — | — | 4.01.1–6.2 | 5015–68 |
| Jonathan BibbsVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 8.32.6–13.7 | — | — | 3.01.1–4.6 | 4012–60 |
| Waden Charlesbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 8.92.8–14.6 | — | — | 3.21.0–5.0 | 3912–59 |
| Agyeman Addaebalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.81.8–14.1 | — | — | 2.00.8–3.6 | 190–25 |
| Duke WatsonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.11.7–11.8 | — | 346–54 | — | — |
| Caleb RollersonHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 5.91.7–10.0 | — | — | — | 288–40 |
TCU
- Rush yds
- 70
- Rec yds
- 15
- Receptions
- 3.9
- Rec yds
- 49
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rush yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rec yds
- 27
UCF
- Pass yds
- 218
- Pass yds
- 174
- Rush yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 4.1
- Rec yds
- 55
- Receptions
- 4.0
- Rec yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 40
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 2.0
- Rec yds
- 19
- Rush yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 28
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyone JenkinsQB · UCF | Passing yards | 217.9 | 210.5 | 132.3–274.5 | Shop the line |
| Alonza Barnett IIIQB · UCF | Passing yards | 173.5 | 186.6 | 100.2–232.0 | Shop the line |
| Jeremy PayneRB · TCU | Rushing yards | 70.1 | 61.9 | 23.7–105.0 | Shop the line |
| Dylan WadeTE · UCF | Receiving yards | 54.9 | 43.0 | 17.5–82.1 | Shop the line |
| Jordan DwyerWR · TCU | Receiving yards | 49.3 | 38.1 | 16.9–75.3 | Shop the line |
| Duane Thomas Jr.WR · UCF | Receiving yards | 50.0 | 35.3 | 15.0–67.6 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 217.9
- Median
- 210.5
- 20th–80th
- 132.3–274.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 173.5
- Median
- 186.6
- 20th–80th
- 100.2–232.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 70.1
- Median
- 61.9
- 20th–80th
- 23.7–105.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 54.9
- Median
- 43.0
- 20th–80th
- 17.5–82.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 49.3
- Median
- 38.1
- 20th–80th
- 16.9–75.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 50.0
- Median
- 35.3
- 20th–80th
- 15.0–67.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated