LSU Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Oct 10
- Time TBA
- Venue
- Kentucky home
- Kroger Field
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 22 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
LSU visits Kentucky in Week 6.
LSU travels to Kentucky at Kroger Field. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 22 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Sam Leavitt (LSU), Jackson Harris (LSU), and Jayce Brown (LSU).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
22 player distributions are available, led by Sam Leavitt (LSU).
Venue context
Kentucky is the designated home team at Kroger Field.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:05+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:05+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
LSU pass protection vs Kentucky pass rush
LSU's pass protection graded 65.8 in 2025 (71st of 136); Kentucky's pass rush graded 69.7 (19th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Kentucky's pass rush.
Kentucky pass protection vs LSU pass rush
Kentucky's pass protection graded 68.1 in 2025 (52nd of 136); LSU's pass rush graded 64.7 (75th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Kentucky's pass protection. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
LSU receiving corps vs Kentucky coverage
LSU's receiving corps graded 63.0 in 2025 (92nd of 136); Kentucky's coverage graded 60.2 (111th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for LSU's receiving corps. LSU's receiving corps returns only 22.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Kentucky receiving corps vs LSU coverage
Kentucky's receiving corps graded 62.6 in 2025 (99th of 136); LSU's coverage graded 67.4 (33rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for LSU's coverage.
LSU rush offense vs Kentucky run defense
LSU's rush offense graded 70.5 in 2025 (114th of 136); Kentucky's run defense graded 71.7 (20th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Kentucky's run defense.
Kentucky rush offense vs LSU run defense
Kentucky's rush offense graded 74.5 in 2025 (77th of 136); LSU's run defense graded 70.2 (36th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for LSU's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
LSU
14 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LeavittSAFE FLOOR · Tier 3 | QB | 17.97.4–27.1 | 212146–268 | 27-0–47 | — | — |
| Jackson HarrisELITE · Tier 4 | WR | 15.95.5–21.7 | — | — | 4.01.0–6.1 | 6323–89 |
| Jayce BrownELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 13.74.4–21.5 | — | — | 3.71.1–5.8 | 5818–83 |
| Eugene Wilson IIIbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 10.44.7–18.6 | — | — | 4.31.1–6.2 | 5017–82 |
| Trey'Dez GreenHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 8.83.1–15.2 | — | — | 3.21.0–5.0 | 4213–62 |
| Harlem BerryELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 10.03.2–16.0 | — | 5315–79 | 1.70.0–3.1 | — |
| Tre' Brownbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 9.13.1–14.2 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.4 | 4815–68 |
| Caden Durhambalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 8.12.3–12.5 | — | 418–60 | — | — |
| Winston Watkins Jr.VOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.32.4–13.5 | — | — | 2.81.0–4.4 | 3612–57 |
| Dilin Jonesbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 8.02.3–12.1 | — | 399–65 | — | — |
| Rod Gainey Jr.SAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 7.01.8–11.5 | — | — | 1.80.0–3.0 | — |
| Roman MothershedELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 7.52.2–12.0 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.3 | 3810–55 |
| Malachi ThomasELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 6.31.7–10.3 | — | — | — | — |
| Malik ElzySAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | WR | 6.11.9–10.2 | — | — | — | 277–37 |
Kentucky
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Daisybalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 8.62.6–13.9 | — | — | 3.21.0–4.9 | 3811–59 |
| Kenny MincheyHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | QB | 8.21.1–16.8 | — | 21-0–33 | — | — |
| Jason PattersonELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.52.5–13.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Jovantae BarnesELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.21.6–13.4 | — | — | — | — |
| Willie RodriguezHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 7.22.4–11.1 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.0 | 349–51 |
| Hardley Gilmore IVELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 7.12.2–11.2 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.1 | 339–48 |
| CJ BaxterELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.91.8–11.1 | — | — | — | — |
| Henry BoyerELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 6.11.6–9.9 | — | — | — | 266–33 |
LSU
- Pass yds
- 212
- Rush yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 4.0
- Rec yds
- 63
- Receptions
- 3.7
- Rec yds
- 58
- Receptions
- 4.3
- Rec yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 42
- Rush yds
- 53
- Receptions
- 1.7
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 48
- Rush yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 2.8
- Rec yds
- 36
- Rush yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 1.8
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rec yds
- 27
Kentucky
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rush yds
- 21
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LeavittQB · LSU | Passing yards | 211.8 | 211.0 | 145.7–268.4 | Shop the line |
| Jackson HarrisWR · LSU | Receiving yards | 63.4 | 46.5 | 23.0–88.8 | Shop the line |
| Jayce BrownWR · LSU | Receiving yards | 58.1 | 43.2 | 17.8–82.8 | Shop the line |
| Eugene Wilson IIIWR · LSU | Receiving yards | 50.1 | 41.0 | 17.3–81.9 | Shop the line |
| Trey'Dez GreenTE · LSU | Receiving yards | 42.2 | 32.5 | 13.2–61.6 | Shop the line |
| Harlem BerryRB · LSU | Rushing yards | 52.8 | 46.6 | 14.5–78.5 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 211.8
- Median
- 211.0
- 20th–80th
- 145.7–268.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 63.4
- Median
- 46.5
- 20th–80th
- 23.0–88.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 58.1
- Median
- 43.2
- 20th–80th
- 17.8–82.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 50.1
- Median
- 41.0
- 20th–80th
- 17.3–81.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 42.2
- Median
- 32.5
- 20th–80th
- 13.2–61.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 52.8
- Median
- 46.6
- 20th–80th
- 14.5–78.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated