Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas Razorbacks college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 26
- 8:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Arkansas home
- Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 22 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Tulsa visits Arkansas in Week 4.
Tulsa travels to Arkansas at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 22 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Baylor Hayes (TLSA), Donovan Faupel (ARK), and David Wells Jr. (TLSA).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
22 player distributions are available, led by Baylor Hayes (TLSA).
Venue context
Arkansas is the designated home team at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:35:02+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Tulsa pass protection vs Arkansas pass rush
Tulsa's pass protection graded 62.5 in 2025 (94th of 136); Arkansas's pass rush graded 65.6 (67th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Arkansas's pass rush.
Arkansas pass protection vs Tulsa pass rush
Arkansas's pass protection graded 65.5 in 2025 (74th of 136); Tulsa's pass rush graded 69.8 (17th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Tulsa's pass rush.
Tulsa receiving corps vs Arkansas coverage
Tulsa's receiving corps graded 62.2 in 2025 (104th of 136); Arkansas's coverage graded 57.4 (129th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Tulsa's receiving corps.
Arkansas receiving corps vs Tulsa coverage
Arkansas's receiving corps graded 65.7 in 2025 (56th of 136); Tulsa's coverage graded 68.3 (25th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Tulsa's coverage.
Tulsa rush offense vs Arkansas run defense
Tulsa's rush offense graded 78.7 in 2025 (35th of 136); Arkansas's run defense graded 67.4 (60th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Tulsa's rush offense. Both units return under a quarter of their 2025 snaps, so last season's form carries less weight here.
Arkansas rush offense vs Tulsa run defense
Arkansas's rush offense graded 84.0 in 2025 (4th of 136); Tulsa's run defense graded 74.3 (7th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Tulsa
12 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor Hayesbalanced · Tier 4 | QB | 16.46.2–25.7 | 18792–255 | — | — | — |
| David Wells Jr.balanced · Tier 6 | WR | 13.04.5–21.1 | — | — | 4.21.0–6.2 | 5219–74 |
| DJ McKinneyHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | RB | 11.03.0–17.0 | — | 379–61 | — | 150–18 |
| Dexter Williams IIVOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 9.21.3–16.3 | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Smithbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 8.92.9–14.4 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.1 | 3913–58 |
| Grayson Tempestbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 8.92.8–14.5 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.0 | 3812–56 |
| Trequan Jonesbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 7.91.6–12.8 | — | 4111–64 | — | — |
| Jimmy CallowayHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 7.21.5–12.0 | — | — | — | 328–43 |
| Damari AlstonELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.42.1–11.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Micah TeaseHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 6.61.9–10.9 | — | — | — | 298–36 |
| Donnell Gee Jr.HIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 6.01.6–10.1 | — | — | — | 276–35 |
| Jewlyen Robertsbalanced · Tier 6 | TE | 5.81.5–9.4 | — | — | — | — |
Arkansas
10 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan FaupelELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 15.45.1–22.8 | — | — | 5.11.0–7.5 | 6121–82 |
| KJ JacksonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | QB | 9.82.3–19.8 | 13941–226 | — | — | — |
| Sutton SmithSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 8.62.7–14.7 | — | 369–60 | 1.90.0–3.2 | — |
| Chris Marshallbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 8.82.9–13.9 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.8 | 4313–63 |
| Jamari HawkinsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 8.42.6–13.5 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.3 | 4113–60 |
| Jaden PlattELITE · Tier 6 | TE | 7.52.6–12.1 | — | — | 2.61.0–3.9 | 339–49 |
| Braylen RussellVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.31.6–12.0 | — | 346–56 | — | — |
| CJ Brownbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.72.0–10.5 | — | — | — | 328–45 |
| Ismael CisseHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 7.02.0–11.0 | — | — | — | 349–49 |
| Matt AdcockHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | TE | 6.61.6–10.9 | — | — | — | — |
Tulsa
- Pass yds
- 187
- Receptions
- 4.2
- Rec yds
- 52
- Rush yds
- 37
- Rec yds
- 15
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rush yds
- 41
- Rec yds
- 32
- Rec yds
- 29
- Rec yds
- 27
Arkansas
- Receptions
- 5.1
- Rec yds
- 61
- Pass yds
- 139
- Rush yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 1.9
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 41
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rush yds
- 34
- Rec yds
- 32
- Rec yds
- 34
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor HayesQB · TLSA | Passing yards | 186.9 | 190.5 | 92.4–254.6 | Shop the line |
| Donovan FaupelWR · ARK | Receiving yards | 60.9 | 44.5 | 21.3–81.5 | Shop the line |
| David Wells Jr.WR · TLSA | Receiving yards | 51.6 | 37.9 | 18.5–74.3 | Shop the line |
| KJ JacksonQB · ARK | Passing yards | 139.1 | 157.5 | 41.4–225.7 | Shop the line |
| DJ McKinneyRB · TLSA | Rushing yards | 37.3 | 31.0 | 8.7–60.8 | Shop the line |
| Josh SmithWR · TLSA | Receiving yards | 39.3 | 32.3 | 12.8–57.9 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 186.9
- Median
- 190.5
- 20th–80th
- 92.4–254.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 60.9
- Median
- 44.5
- 20th–80th
- 21.3–81.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 51.6
- Median
- 37.9
- 20th–80th
- 18.5–74.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Passing yards
- Projection
- 139.1
- Median
- 157.5
- 20th–80th
- 41.4–225.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 37.3
- Median
- 31.0
- 20th–80th
- 8.7–60.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 39.3
- Median
- 32.3
- 20th–80th
- 12.8–57.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:35 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated