Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky Wildcats college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 12
- 3:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- Kentucky home
- Kroger Field
- Captured market
- Line not posted
- No verified spread
- Player model
- 17 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Alabama visits Kentucky in Week 2.
Alabama travels to Kentucky at Kroger Field. No sourced spread is attached to this game yet, so the page does not infer a favorite.
The published player model covers 17 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Daniel Hill (ALA), Ryan Coleman-Williams (ALA), and Xavier Daisy (UK).
Market pending
There is no verified spread for this matchup in the committed snapshot.
Player projection coverage
17 player distributions are available, led by Daniel Hill (ALA).
Venue context
Kentucky is the designated home team at Kroger Field.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:58+00:00No favorite inferred
context onlyPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:58+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Alabama pass protection vs Kentucky pass rush
Alabama's pass protection graded 76.0 in 2025 (7th of 136); Kentucky's pass rush graded 69.7 (19th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Kentucky pass protection vs Alabama pass rush
Kentucky's pass protection graded 68.1 in 2025 (52nd of 136); Alabama's pass rush graded 60.6 (126th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Kentucky's pass protection. Kentucky's pass protection returns only 4.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Alabama receiving corps vs Kentucky coverage
Alabama's receiving corps graded 66.1 in 2025 (43rd of 136); Kentucky's coverage graded 60.2 (111th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Alabama's receiving corps.
Kentucky receiving corps vs Alabama coverage
Kentucky's receiving corps graded 62.6 in 2025 (99th of 136); Alabama's coverage graded 73.4 (3rd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Alabama's coverage.
Alabama rush offense vs Kentucky run defense
Alabama's rush offense graded 71.0 in 2025 (111th of 136); Kentucky's run defense graded 71.7 (20th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Kentucky's run defense.
Kentucky rush offense vs Alabama run defense
Kentucky's rush offense graded 74.5 in 2025 (77th of 136); Alabama's run defense graded 71.5 (24th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Alabama's run defense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Alabama
9 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Hillbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 11.03.5–16.7 | — | 316–52 | 2.50.9–4.3 | 170–29 |
| Ryan Coleman-WilliamsELITE · Tier 5 | WR | 10.33.8–16.3 | — | — | 3.91.1–5.8 | 5415–75 |
| Noah RogersVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 8.33.0–12.6 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.8 | 3810–55 |
| Lotzeir Brooksbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 7.32.3–11.1 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.1 | — |
| Austin Mackbalanced · Tier 5 | QB | 7.11.0–12.7 | — | — | — | — |
| Rico ScottVOLATILE · Tier 5 | WR | 6.62.0–10.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Kaleb EdwardsELITE · Tier 5 | TE | 6.61.7–10.9 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.9 | 278–35 |
| Kevin RileySAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 6.71.3–10.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Josh FordHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | TE | 6.31.6–10.3 | — | — | — | 277–36 |
Kentucky
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Daisybalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 8.62.6–13.9 | — | — | 3.21.0–4.9 | 3811–59 |
| Kenny MincheySAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | QB | 8.21.1–16.8 | — | 21-0–33 | — | — |
| Jason PattersonELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.52.5–13.9 | — | — | — | — |
| Jovantae BarnesELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 8.21.6–13.4 | — | — | — | — |
| Willie Rodriguezbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 7.22.4–11.1 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.0 | 349–51 |
| Hardley Gilmore IVbalanced · Tier 5 | WR | 7.12.2–11.2 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.1 | 339–48 |
| CJ BaxterELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 6.91.8–11.1 | — | — | — | — |
| Henry BoyerSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | TE | 6.11.6–9.9 | — | — | — | 266–33 |
Alabama
- Rush yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 17
- Receptions
- 3.9
- Rec yds
- 54
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 38
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 27
- Rec yds
- 27
Kentucky
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 38
- Rush yds
- 21
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rec yds
- 26
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel HillRB · ALA | Rushing yards | 31.1 | 24.9 | 6.3–52.0 | Shop the line |
| Ryan Coleman-WilliamsWR · ALA | Receiving yards | 53.9 | 39.7 | 15.2–74.6 | Shop the line |
| Xavier DaisyWR · UK | Receiving yards | 37.5 | 30.6 | 11.4–59.4 | Shop the line |
| Noah RogersWR · ALA | Receiving yards | 37.5 | 28.2 | 10.4–54.8 | Shop the line |
| Kenny MincheyQB · UK | Rushing yards | 21.1 | 10.1 | -0.1–33.1 | Shop the line |
| Lotzeir BrooksWR · ALA | Receptions | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0–4.1 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 31.1
- Median
- 24.9
- 20th–80th
- 6.3–52.0
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 53.9
- Median
- 39.7
- 20th–80th
- 15.2–74.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 37.5
- Median
- 30.6
- 20th–80th
- 11.4–59.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 37.5
- Median
- 28.2
- 20th–80th
- 10.4–54.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 21.1
- Median
- 10.1
- 20th–80th
- -0.1–33.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receptions
- Projection
- 2.7
- Median
- 2.3
- 20th–80th
- 1.0–4.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- No line
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated