Missouri State Bears at Texas A&M Aggies college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Sep 5
- 7:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Texas A&M home
- Kyle Field
- Captured market
- TA&M -39.5
- DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
- Player model
- 14 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Texas A&M carries the early number into Kyle Field.
Missouri State travels to Texas A&M at Kyle Field. The captured market lists Texas A&M as a 39.5-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 14 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Marcel Reed (TA&M), Rueben Owens II (TA&M), and Ashton Bethel-Roman (TA&M).
Market frame
Texas A&M is the captured favorite by 39.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
14 player distributions are available, led by Marcel Reed (TA&M).
Venue context
Texas A&M is the designated home team at Kyle Field.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00DraftKings snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
Missouri State pass protection vs Texas A&M pass rush
Missouri State's pass protection graded 69.3 in 2025 (45th of 136); Texas A&M's pass rush graded 69.4 (21st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Texas A&M's pass rush.
Texas A&M pass protection vs Missouri State pass rush
Texas A&M's pass protection graded 71.1 in 2025 (27th of 136); Missouri State's pass rush graded 65.8 (64th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Texas A&M's pass protection.
Missouri State receiving corps vs Texas A&M coverage
Missouri State's receiving corps graded 66.2 in 2025 (40th of 136); Texas A&M's coverage graded 70.5 (17th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Texas A&M's coverage.
Texas A&M receiving corps vs Missouri State coverage
Texas A&M's receiving corps graded 65.8 in 2025 (50th of 136); Missouri State's coverage graded 63.6 (74th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Texas A&M's receiving corps.
Missouri State rush offense vs Texas A&M run defense
Missouri State's rush offense graded 76.5 in 2025 (57th of 136); Texas A&M's run defense graded 66.6 (73rd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Missouri State's rush offense. Missouri State's rush offense returns only 21.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
Texas A&M rush offense vs Missouri State run defense
Texas A&M's rush offense graded 75.4 in 2025 (68th of 136); Missouri State's run defense graded 62.0 (125th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Texas A&M's rush offense.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Missouri State
7 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jmariyae RobinsonELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 9.53.2–16.9 | — | — | 4.01.0–6.5 | 5015–70 |
| Skyler LocklearELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 10.04.5–17.6 | 13996–200 | 31-1–59 | — | — |
| Jeron AskrenSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5 | TE | 6.82.4–11.1 | — | — | 2.31.0–4.2 | 249–42 |
| Ramone Green Jr.SAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 5.01.6–7.4 | — | 254–48 | — | 80–15 |
| Isaiah MyersSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 5.41.6–8.4 | — | — | 2.51.0–4.2 | 238–43 |
| Makai CopeSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 4.91.6–7.4 | — | — | 2.51.0–4.1 | 278–42 |
| Mekhi MillerVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 4.61.4–7.2 | — | — | 2.41.0–3.8 | 226–35 |
Texas A&M
7 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel ReedELITE · Tier 4 | QB | 23.111.6–30.7 | 225146–282 | 4011–63 | — | — |
| Rueben Owens IIbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 13.04.8–21.0 | — | 5919–86 | 1.70.0–3.0 | — |
| Ashton Bethel-Romanbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 10.33.3–16.5 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.0 | 4413–71 |
| Isaiah HortonVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 10.83.4–16.0 | — | — | 2.91.0–4.0 | 3811–60 |
| Mario CraverSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 11.43.4–17.5 | — | — | 3.41.1–5.5 | 4313–67 |
| Houston Thomasbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 10.03.1–16.2 | — | — | 3.11.0–4.7 | 3711–59 |
| Richie Andersonbalanced · Tier 5 | TE | 10.02.7–15.0 | — | — | 3.21.0–5.0 | 3613–59 |
Missouri State
- Receptions
- 4.0
- Rec yds
- 50
- Pass yds
- 139
- Rush yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 2.3
- Rec yds
- 24
- Rush yds
- 25
- Rec yds
- 8
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 23
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 27
- Receptions
- 2.4
- Rec yds
- 22
Texas A&M
- Pass yds
- 225
- Rush yds
- 40
- Rush yds
- 59
- Receptions
- 1.7
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 44
- Receptions
- 2.9
- Rec yds
- 38
- Receptions
- 3.4
- Rec yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 3.1
- Rec yds
- 37
- Receptions
- 3.2
- Rec yds
- 36
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel ReedQB · TA&M | Passing yards | 224.5 | 230.4 | 146.4–281.9 | Shop the line |
| Rueben Owens IIRB · TA&M | Rushing yards | 58.7 | 49.7 | 18.8–85.6 | Shop the line |
| Ashton Bethel-RomanWR · TA&M | Receiving yards | 43.9 | 35.6 | 13.2–70.5 | Shop the line |
| Isaiah HortonWR · TA&M | Receiving yards | 37.8 | 30.2 | 11.0–60.3 | Shop the line |
| Mario CraverWR · TA&M | Receiving yards | 43.2 | 36.1 | 13.0–67.2 | Shop the line |
| Houston ThomasTE · TA&M | Receiving yards | 37.4 | 30.8 | 11.4–59.2 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 224.5
- Median
- 230.4
- 20th–80th
- 146.4–281.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 58.7
- Median
- 49.7
- 20th–80th
- 18.8–85.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 43.9
- Median
- 35.6
- 20th–80th
- 13.2–70.5
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 37.8
- Median
- 30.2
- 20th–80th
- 11.0–60.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 43.2
- Median
- 36.1
- 20th–80th
- 13.0–67.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 37.4
- Median
- 30.8
- 20th–80th
- 11.4–59.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter this page. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated